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Elections in Florida |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Florida is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Florida voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Florida has 30 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat. [1]
Despite being a heavily populated and fast-growing state once considered a presidential battleground and bellwether, Florida has been trending towards the political right in recent years and is now seen as a moderately red state. In 2020, Republican Donald Trump (who changed his resident state from New York to Florida in 2019 [2]) carried the state again by 3.36 percentage points, an improvement from his 1.2% margin in 2016, despite Trump losing re-election nationwide and polls pointing to a narrow Democratic win in Florida. In addition, Republicans won all statewide offices by double-digit margins in the 2022 midterms. [3] [4] Thus, Florida is widely expected to remain in the Republican camp in the November 2024 election. [5]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for re-election to a second term. [6]
On May 23, 2024, the Reform Party of Florida applied to restore ballot access in the state. [7] That same day, the party selected independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for its nomination. [8]
The Florida Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Illinois, and Ohio.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 911,424 | 81.19% | 125 | 0 | 125 |
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 155,560 | 13.86% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 41,269 | 3.68% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 8,953 | 0.80% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 2,850 | 0.25% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 1,385 | 0.12% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 1,190 | 0.11% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total: | 1,122,631 | 100.00% | 125 | 0 | 125 |
Source: [9] |
On November 30, 2023, Politico reported that the Florida Democratic Party had only submitted Biden's name to the Secretary of State, which means that the primary will be cancelled under Florida law.
This cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips [10] and Marianne Williamson campaigns. [11] Williamson and fellow Democratic candidate Cenk Uygur held a press conference over Zoom on December 1 criticizing the move. [12] On December 11, 2023, a voter filed a lawsuit in federal court seeking to add Phillips, Williamson, and Uygur's name to the ballot. [13] The voter lost in district court but is expected to appeal. [14]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden |
Hillary Clinton |
Kamala Harris |
Gavin Newsom |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University | Sep 15–18, 2022 | 163 (LV) | – | 50% | – | – | 33% | 17% |
Suffolk University | Jan 26–29, 2022 | 164 (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | – | – | 11% |
Victory Insights | Sep 16–18, 2021 | 200 (LV) | – | 60% | – | 17% | – | 23% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [19] | Likely R | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections [20] | Lean R | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [21] | Likely R | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/ The Hill [22] | Lean R | June 8, 2024 |
CNalysis [23] | Likely R | December 30, 2023 |
CNN [24] | Lean R | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist [25] | Likely R | June 12, 2024 |
538 [26] | Likely R | June 30, 2024 |
RCP [27] | Lean R | June 26, 2024 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other /
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | June 8–9, 2024 | 883 (A) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 42% | 13% |
771 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 43% | 8% | ||
The Tyson Group (R) | June 6–9, 2024 | 1,050 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 36% | 18% |
Fox News | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,075 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
CBS News/YouGov | May 10–16, 2024 | 1,209 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 54% | 45% | 1% |
Prime Group [A] | May 9–16, 2024 | 486 (RV) | – | 53% | 47% | – |
Cherry Communications (R) [B] | April 28 – May 7, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | April 15–17, 2024 | 865 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 42% | 8% |
815 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 43% | 6% | ||
Emerson College | April 9–10, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 44% | – |
St. Pete Polls | March 11–13, 2024 | 1,963 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
Cygnal (R) | November 13–15, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | October 27 – November 11, 2023 | 946 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 1,100 (RV) | – | 44% | 39% | 17% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | June 27 – July 1, 2023 | 933 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 39% | 2% |
Metropolitan Research Services | March 15–19, 2023 | 1,001 (RV) | – | 47% | 43% | 10% |
Emerson College | March 13–15, 2023 | 1,153 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
University of North Florida | February 25 – March 7, 2023 | 1,452 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 50% | 43% | 7% |
Victory Insights | November 16–17, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 51% | – |
Rasmussen Reports (R) | November 8–9, 2022 | 1,224 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
Florida Atlantic University | October 12–16, 2022 | 719 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Suffolk University | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | 9% |
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 815 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
Victory Insights | September 16–18, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 51% | – |
St. Pete Polls | August 16–17, 2021 | 2,068 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | August 4–10, 2021 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 50% | 8% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fox News | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,075 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
Prime Group [A] | May 9–16, 2024 | 486 (RV) | – | 48% | 39% | 9% | 3% | 1% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other /
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | June 8–9, 2024 | 883 (A) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 37% | 10% | 10% |
771 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 40% | 8% | 6% | ||
Cherry Communications (R) [B] | April 28 – May 7, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 37% | 10% | 7% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | May 2-4, 2024 | 586 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 38% | 6% | 9% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | April 15–17, 2024 | 865 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 38% | 7% | 7% |
815 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 40% | 6% | 5% | ||
USA Today/Ipsos | April 5–7, 2024 | 1,014 (A) | ± 4.1% | 39% | 31% | 7% | 23% |
Emerson College | April 9–10, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 35% | 6% | 11% [c] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | March 14–17, 2024 | 815 (LV) | – | 46% | 39% | 7% | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | December 28–30, 2023 | 1,147 (LV) | – | 45% | 34% | 9% | 12% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 897 (LV) | – | 44% | 34% | 9% | 13% |
Cygnal (R) | November 13–15, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 37% | 11% | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 1100 (LV) | – | 44% | 37% | 8% | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
Victory Insights | September 16–18, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 51% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other /
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 897 (LV) | – | 27% | 32% | 16% | 24% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other /
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 897 (LV) | – | 38% | 34% | 12% | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cygnal (R) | November 13–15, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | October 27 – November 11, 2023 | 946 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 39% | 15% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | June 27 – July 1, 2023 | 933 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 36% | 15% |
Emerson College | March 13–15, 2023 | 1,153 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
University of North Florida | February 25 – March 7, 2023 | 1,452 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 51% | 42% | 8% |
Cherry Communications | February 10–19, 2023 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 38% | 13% |
Victory Insights | November 16–17, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 53% | 47% | – |
Suffolk University | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 52% | 44% | 4% |
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 815 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 44% | 4% |
Victory Insights | September 16–18, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 51% | – |
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R) | September 11–12, 2021 | 1,144 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 55% | – |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | August 4–10, 2021 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 52% | 40% | 8% |
Victory Insights | September 16–18, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 49% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 53% | 40% | 7% |
[DeSantis] flipped Miami-Dade County, Florida's political crown jewel, which completed a stunning reversal in just six years, after backing Hillary Clinton by 30 points in 2016, Joe Biden by 7 in 2020, and now DeSantis by 11 points. In running up the score, DeSantis also secured another major win, becoming the first Florida Republican gubernatorial candidate to win the Latino vote in 20 years, and the first Republican governor to do so since Brian Sandoval in Nevada in 2014. ... Devon Murphy-Anderson, the former finance director for the Florida Democratic Party and cofounder of Mi Vecino, which works to activate Latino voters in Florida, told Newsweek that while Miami-Dade is getting all of the attention, DeSantis' complete and total win also impressively flipped traditional blue areas like Palm Beach County and Hillsborough County. "It's important to know this was a strategy from Florida Republicans, and not to shift the blame to Latino voters," she argued, seeing the results as "a response to strategic investment by a political party."