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2016 Florida Democratic presidential primary

←  2008 March 15, 2016 (2016-03-15) 2020 →
 
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 141 73
Popular vote 1,101,414 [1] 568,839
Percentage 64.4% 33.3%

Results by county
Clinton:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%
Sanders:      40-50%      50-60%

The 2016 Florida Democratic presidential primary took place on March 15 in the U.S. state of Florida as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, the Democratic Party held primaries in Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio, while the Republican Party held primaries in the same five states, including their own Florida primary, plus the Northern Mariana Islands.

Clinton's landslide was fueled by support from retirees, [2] and Jewish [2] and Latino [3] voters in South Florida.

Debates and forums

March 2016 debate in Miami

On March 9, 2016, the Democratic Party held an eighth presidential debate at Miami Dade College in Miami, Florida. It was broadcast through a partnership between Univision and The Washington Post.

Opinion polling

Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Official Primary results March 15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
64.4%
Bernie Sanders
33.3%
Other
2.3%
ARG [4]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

March 11–13, 2016 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Others / Undecided 5%
Quinnipiac [5]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 519

March 8–13, 2016 Hillary Clinton
60%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided 6%
Public Policy Polling [6]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 627

March 11–12, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
32%
Others / Undecided 11%
CBS News/YouGov [7]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 796

March 9–11, 2016 Hillary Clinton
62%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided 4%
Florida Atlantic University [8]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 414

March 8–11, 2016 Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
31%
Others / Undecided 10%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist [9]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500

March 4–10, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided 5%
WTSP/Mason-Dixon [10]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 500

March 7–9, 2016 Hillary Clinton
68%
Bernie Sanders
23%
Others / Undecided 9%
Quinnipiac [11]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 511

March 2–7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
62%
Bernie Sanders
32%
Others / Undecided 6%
SurveyUSA/Bay News 9/News 13 [12]

Margin of error: ± 3.4%
Sample size: 823

March 4–6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
30%
Others / Undecided 9%
CNN/ORC [13]

Margin of error: ± 6.0%
Sample size: 264

March 2–6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided 5%
Wash Post/Univision [14]

Margin of error: ± 6.0%
Sample size: 449

March 2-5, 2016 Hillary Clinton
64%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Others / Undecided 10%
University of North Florida [15]

Margin of error: ± 3.7%
Sample size: 685

February 22–27, 2016 Hillary Clinton
54%
Bernie Sanders
24%
Others / Undecided 22%
Public Policy Polling [16]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 388

February 24–25, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
32%
Others / Undecided 11%
Gravis Marketing [17]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 514

February 24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
42%
Quinnipiac [18]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 476

February 21–24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided 8%
Florida Southern College [19]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample Size: 608

January 30 – February 6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
43%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Others / Undecided 31%
Florida Atlantic University [20]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample Size: 371

January 15–18, 2016 Hillary Clinton
62%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Not Reported
Polls in 2015
Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Florida Atlantic University [20]

Margin of error: ± 5.2%
Sample Size: 355

November 15–16, 2015 Hillary Clinton
66%
Bernie Sanders
22%
Martin O'Malley 4%
Other 4.5%
Undecided 3.7%
Bay News 9/ News13 [21]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 826

October 28 – November 1, 2015 Hillary Clinton
66%
Bernie Sanders
24%
Martin O'Malley 3%
Other 2%
Undecided 6%
Saint Leo University Polling Institute [22]

Margin of error: ±6.0%
Sample size: 165

October 17–22, 2015 Hillary Clinton
50.9%
Joe Biden 15.2% Bernie Sanders 13.3%
Unsure/Don't Know 8.5%
Quinnipiac University [23]

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 411

September 25 – October 5, 2015 Hillary Clinton
43%
Joe Biden
19%
Bernie Sanders 19%
Someone else/Undecided 13%
Public Policy Polling [24]

Margin of error: ± 5.1%
Sample size: 368

September 11–13, 2015 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
18%
Joe Biden 17%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Jim Webb 1%
Lincoln Chafee 1%
Lawrence Lessig 0%
Someone else/Undecided 6%
Gravis Marketing [25]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 693

September 5–11, 2015 Hillary Clinton
41.6%
Joe Biden
21.4%
Bernie Sanders 12.5%
Martin O'Malley 1.5%
Jim Webb 1.3%
Lincoln Chafee 0.4%
Unsure 21.3%
Quinnipiac University [26]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 419

Posted September 4, 2015 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
20%
Joe Biden 15%
Lincoln Chafee 4%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Jim Webb 1%
Other 1%
Undecided 6%
Quinnipiac University [27]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 345

August 7–18, 2015 Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
15%
Joe Biden 11%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Jim Webb 1%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Other 2%
Wouldn't vote 6%
Undecided 17%
St Pete Polls [28]

Margin of error: ± 3.0%
Sample size: 1080

July 18–28, 2015 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
29%
Jim Webb 2%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Lincoln Chafee <1%
Unsure or someone else 13%
Mason-Dixon [29]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 500

July 20–23, 2015 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
17%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Jim Webb 0%
Undecided 23%
Gravis Marketing [30]

Margin of error: ± 3%
Sample size: 881

June 16–20, 2015 Hillary Clinton
64.8%
Bernie Sanders
20.6%
Martin O'Malley 2.1%
Bill De Blasio 1.7%
Jim Webb 0.9%
Lincoln Chafee 0.4%
Unsure 9.5%
Quinnipiac University [31]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 378

June 4–15, 2015 Hillary Clinton
64%
Joe Biden
9%
Bernie Sanders 8%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Jim Webb 0%
Other 1%
Wouldn't vote 5%
Undecided 13%
Quinnipiac University [32]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 344

March 17–28, 2015 Hillary Clinton
65%
Joe Biden
11%
Elizabeth Warren 7%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Jim Webb 2%
Martin O'Malley 0%
Other 1%
Wouldn't vote 2%
Undecided 10%
Joe Biden
42%
Elizabeth Warren
19%
Bernie Sanders 6%
Jim Webb 3%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Other 2%
Wouldn't vote 4%
Undecided 22%
Public Policy Polling [33]

Margin of error: ± 5.1%
Sample size: 371

March 19–22, 2015 Hillary Clinton
58%
Joe Biden
14%
Elizabeth Warren 10%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Jim Webb 1%
Other/Undecided 11%
[34]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 435

February 24–25, 2015 Hillary Clinton
52%
Elizabeth Warren
14%
Joe Biden 9%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Mark Warner 2%
Jim Webb 2%
Undecided 18%
Quinnipiac University [35]

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 322

January 22 – February 1, 2015 Hillary Clinton
61%
Joe Biden
11%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Bernie Sanders 2%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Jim Webb 1%
Other 2%
Wouldn't vote 4%
Undecided 10%
Joe Biden
39%
Elizabeth Warren
22%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Jim Webb 2%
Other 4%
Wouldn't vote 5%
Undecided 23%
Polls in 2014
Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Quinnipiac University [36]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 457

July 17–21, 2014 Hillary Clinton
67%
Joe Biden
8%
Elizabeth Warren 8%
Andrew Cuomo 1%
Martin O'Malley 0%
Brian Schweitzer 0%
Other 1%
Wouldn't vote 3%
Undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling [37]

Margin of error: ± 6.2%
Sample size: 251

June 6–9, 2014 Hillary Clinton
66%
Elizabeth Warren
8%
Joe Biden 7%
Cory Booker 5%
Andrew Cuomo 4%
Mark Warner 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
Martin O'Malley 0%
Brian Schweitzer 0%
Someone else/Undecided 9%
Quinnipiac University [38]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 501

April 23–28, 2014 Hillary Clinton
64%
Joe Biden
11%
Elizabeth Warren 6%
Andrew Cuomo 1%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Brian Schweitzer 1%
Other 1%
Wouldn't vote 3%
Undecided 13%
Quinnipiac University [39]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 529

January 22–27, 2014 Hillary Clinton
64%
Joe Biden
9%
Elizabeth Warren 5%
Andrew Cuomo 1%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Mark Warner 1%
Other 2%
Wouldn't vote 2%
Undecided 16%
Polls in 2013
Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Quinnipiac University [40]

Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 544

November 12–17, 2013 Hillary Clinton
70%
Joe Biden
9%
Elizabeth Warren 4%
Andrew Cuomo 2%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Mark Warner 1%
Other 2%
Wouldn't vote 2%
Undecided 10%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5.7%
Sample size: 300

March 15–18, 2013 Hillary Clinton
62%
Joe Biden
12%
Andrew Cuomo 5%
Elizabeth Warren 3%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Brian Schweitzer 1%
Mark Warner 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
Deval Patrick 0%
Someone Else/Undecided 14%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 401

January 11–13, 2013 Hillary Clinton
65%
Joe Biden
15%
Andrew Cuomo 4%
Elizabeth Warren 4%
Deval Patrick 1%
Mark Warner 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
Martin O'Malley 0%
Brian Schweitzer 0%
Someone Else/Undecided 11%
Andrew Cuomo
22%
Elizabeth Warren
15%
Deval Patrick 5%
Martin O'Malley 4%
Kirsten Gillibrand 3%
Mark Warner 2%
Brian Schweitzer 1%
Someone Else/Undecided 48%

Results


e •  d  2016 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Florida
– Summary of results –
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 1,101,414 64.44% 141 24 165
Bernie Sanders 568,839 33.28% 73 2 75
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 38,930 2.28%
Uncommitted 0 6 6
Total 1,709,183 100% 214 32 246
Source: The Green Papers, Florida Division of Elections - Official Primary Results

Results by district

Florida Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
District Delegates Votes Clinton Votes Sanders Votes Qualified Clinton delegates Sanders delegates
1 3 26987 18497 45484 2 1
2 6 50190 34073 84263 4 2
3 4 32070 27974 60044 2 2
4 4 33920 22765 56685 2 2
5 6 55855 18639 74494 4 2
6 5 37995 24443 62438 3 2
7 5 37410 26795 64205 3 2
8 5 39384 24376 63760 3 2
9 5 40609 19880 60489 3 2
10 5 38011 22213 60224 3 2
11 5 38061 21590 59651 3 2
12 5 35498 23172 58670 3 2
13 6 44121 29707 73828 4 2
14 6 49146 23617 72763 4 2
15 5 32793 20712 53505 3 2
16 6 43921 25856 69777 4 2
17 4 29899 17045 46944 3 1
18 6 42804 20620 63424 4 2
19 4 31958 17235 49193 3 1
20 7 61998 15761 77759 6 1
21 7 57723 22100 79823 5 2
22 6 49602 22209 71811 4 2
23 6 44510 19974 64484 4 2
24 8 59274 13893 73167 6 2
25 3 24897 9287 34184 2 1
26 4 32069 14148 46217 3 1
27 4 30709 12258 42967 3 1
Total 140 1101414 568839 1670253 93 47
PLEO 28 1101414 568839 1670253 18 10
At Large 46 1101414 568839 1670253 30 16
Gr. Total 214 1101414 568839 1670253 141 73
Total vote 64.44% 33.28% 1,709,183
Source: Florida Department of State Division of Elections

Results by county

County [41] Clinton Votes Sanders Votes
Alachua 49.2% 17,733 48.8% 17,590
Baker 38.5% 654 47.4% 805
Bay 52.6% 5,209 41.7% 4,131
Bradford 48.7% 1,056 41.8% 908
Brevard 59.7% 31,835 37.7% 20,083
Broward 72.5% 132,527 26.4% 48,330
Calhoun 36.2% 437 45.2% 545
Charlotte 62.1% 8,125 35.4% 4,634
Citrus 56.3% 6,863 39.2% 4,776
Clay 57.1% 5,345 39.5% 3,698
Collier 66.1% 12,712 31.9% 6,127
Columbia 52.9% 2,299 38.6% 1,676
DeSoto 52.6% 987 38.7% 726
Dixie 40.2% 409 45.1% 459
Duval 67.2% 58,632 30.6% 26,716
Escambia 62.2% 16,765 34.6% 9,318
Flagler 65.8% 6,152 31.9% 2,977
Franklin 47.0% 665 45.7% 647
Gadsden 76.4% 7,446 20.0% 1,944
Gilchrist 37.5% 428 50.7% 578
Glades 49.9% 387 40.3% 313
Gulf 47.4% 568 43.4% 520
Hamilton 54.7% 758 34.6% 479
Hardee 52.7% 529 39.1% 393
Hendry 60.6% 1,156 33.9% 647
Hernando 59.6% 8,882 37.0% 5,512
Highlands 61.4% 3,711 34.0% 2,054
Hillsborough 62.8% 68,936 35.1% 38,505
Holmes 28.3% 339 51.7% 619
Indian River 62.4% 6,897 35.5% 3,926
Jackson 53.9% 2,798 35.5% 1,840
Jefferson 64.6% 1,671 29.5% 762
Lafayette 30.0% 295 50.9% 501
Lake 63.5% 15,914 33.8% 8,465
Lee 62.7% 27,940 35.0% 15,624
Leon 56.5% 27,333 41.1% 19,866
Levy 50.0% 1,570 43.1% 1,354
Liberty 38.0% 316 47.1% 392
Madison 62.4% 1,542 30.0% 741
Manatee 62.5% 18,116 35.1% 10,165
Marion 62.7% 18,220 34.1% 9,892
Martin 59.8% 6,523 37.6% 4,101
Miami-Dade 74.7% 129,467 24.3% 42,009
Monroe 55.3% 4,830 42.8% 3,739
Nassau 56.2% 2,910 39.8% 2,060
Okaloosa 52.0% 4,559 43.1% 3,782
Okeechobee 55.2% 1,150 37.6% 784
Orange 63.8% 66,654 35.1% 36,639
Osceola 68.2% 16,512 30.0% 7,273
Palm Beach 71.5% 103,369 27.2% 39,314
Pasco 58.3% 21,760 38.9% 14,493
Pinellas 60.3% 63,699 37.6% 39,742
Polk 63.0% 29,328 33.3% 15,473
Putnam 49.4% 3,182 42.7% 2,747
Santa Rosa 49.2% 3,938 45.0% 3,602
Sarasota 61.1% 25,881 37.3% 15,776
Seminole 58.3% 22,069 39.9% 15,100
St. Johns 57.0% 9,734 40.7% 6,953
St. Lucie 66.9% 17,554 30.8% 8,091
Sumter 68.1% 7,022 29.3% 3,022
Suwannee 42.2% 1,475 44.3% 1,550
Taylor 45.9% 983 42.4% 907
Union 36.7% 336 51.6% 472
Volusia 60.2% 26,276 37.1% 16,170
Wakulla 48.9% 1,659 42.0% 1,424
Walton 50.0% 1,515 44.9% 1,361
Washington 47.1% 858 42.9% 781
Total 64.4% 1,101,414 33.3% 568,839

Analysis

Florida was generally viewed as a state Hillary Clinton would win, given her strong performance in previous contests with older voters (who comprised 65% of the Democratic electorate in Florida, the largest in any contest) and non-white voters (who made up 52% of the electorate). Clinton won the Florida Primary by 31 points, winning older voters by a margin of 71–26, and non-white voters by a margin of 74–25. Specifically, she won Hispanic/Latino voters by a margin of 68-32 (who made up 20% of the electorate), and African American voters 81-18 (who comprised 27% of the electorate). Clinton also won white voters by a narrower margin of 53–43. She won across all income and educational attainment levels. [42]

In terms of religious affiliation, Clinton won Protestants in Florida 69-29 (36% of the electorate), Catholics 69-29 (22% of the electorate), and other religious affiliations 68-31 ( Jews were 4% of the electorate but were unaccounted for in exit polls). Sanders won voters who identified as agnostic/ atheist 56–31. In terms of political ideology, Clinton won liberals 59-41 and moderates/conservatives 70–26. And while Clinton won Democrats 71–28, Sanders won self-identified Independents 55–41. [43]

Clinton won in Miami and along the Gold Coast 73–26, where there is a larger population of Hispanic/Latino voters who in South Florida are predominantly of Cuban or Nicaraguan descent. Clinton also won the Gulf Coast and Mid-Florida 64–35, the Tampa Bay Area 63–37, the Orlando area 62–34, and the Northern Panhandle which is whiter, more conservative and more rural by a smaller margin of 58–37. [44]

References

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