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2024 United States Senate election in Texas

←  2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee Ted Cruz Colin Allred
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator

Ted Cruz
Republican



The 2024 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Two-term incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz is seeking a third term in office. [1] Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024 during Super Tuesday. [2]

U.S. Representative Colin Allred won the Democratic nomination to challenge Cruz and will seek to become the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Texas since 1988.

Background

Texas is generally considered to be a Republican stronghold, having not elected a Democrat to any statewide office since 1994. [3]

Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, both houses of the Texas Legislature, and a large majority in Texas' U.S. House congressional delegation.

Cruz was first elected in 2012, defeating Paul Sadler by 15.84 points and was reelected in 2018 by only 2.56 points, narrowly defeating Beto O'Rourke. [4] [5] The close elections in 2018 prompted some analysts to believe that Texas could become a swing state, but in the 2020 and 2022 elections, Republicans improved their margins of victory. [6] [7]

This race is considered to heavily favor Cruz, but some consider the race to have a potential to become competitive. [8] Should Democrats win this election, it would be the first time they won a Texas U.S. Senate race since 1988.

Republican primary

2024 United States Senate Republican primary in Texas

←  2018 March 5, 2024 (2024-03-05) 2030 →
 
Candidate Ted Cruz Holland Gibson Rufus Lopez
Popular vote 1,977,961 134,011 127,986
Percentage 88.3% 6.0% 5.7%

Results by county
Cruz:      70–80%      80–90%      >90%

Previous Republican nominee

Ted Cruz

Republican nominee

Ted Cruz

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Holland Gibson, retiree [10]
  • Rufus Lopez, attorney [10]

Declined

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Ted Cruz (R) $46,587,309 $40,169,663 $6,575,604
Source: Federal Election Commission [22]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Ted
Cruz
Holland
Gibson
Rufus
Lopez
Other Undecided
YouGov [A] February 2–12, 2024 492 (RV) ± 4.42% 82% 7% 3% 9%

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ted Cruz (incumbent) 1,977,961 88.3
Republican Holland Gibson 134,011 6.0
Republican Rufus Lopez 127,986 5.7
Total votes 2,239,958 100.0

Democratic primary

2024 United States Senate Democratic primary in Texas

←  2018 March 5, 2024 (2024-03-05) 2030 →
 
Candidate Colin Allred Roland Gutierrez Mark Gonzalez
Popular vote 569,585 160,978 85,228
Percentage 58.9% 16.6% 8.8%

Results by county
Allred:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Gutierrez:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Gonzalez:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      >90%
Gomez:      20–30%
     Tied      No Votes

Previous Democratic nominee

Beto O'Rourke

Democratic nominee

Colin Allred

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Colin Allred
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers and other media

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Colin Allred (D) $21,371,157 $12,867,031 $8,504,126
Mark Gonzalez (D) $14,967 [b] $11,659 $3,307
Roland Gutierrez (D) $1,301,543 $1,146,487 $155,055
Steven Keough (D) $27,357 [c] $27,730 $0
Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman (D) $30,458 $29,440 $1,017
Carl Sherman (D) $173,565 $150,616 $22,949
Thierry Tchenko (D) $117,067 $106,606 $10,461
Source: Federal Election Commission [22]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Colin
Allred
Meri
Gomez
Mark
Gonzalez
Roland
Gutierrez
Carl
Sherman
Other Undecided
UT Tyler February 18–26, 2024 441 (LV) ± 5.3% 37% 22% 6% 2% 32%
YouGov [A] February 2–12, 2024 354 (RV) ± 5.21% 52% 3% 5% 14% 2% 5% [d] 18%
YouGov [B] January 11–24, 2024 1,500 (LV) ± 2.5% 40% 4% 2% 12% 1% 3% [e] 38%
Emerson College [C] January 13–15, 2024 460 (RV) ± 4.81% 29% 4% 6% 7% 2% 15% [f] 37%
YouGov [A] December 1–10, 2023 415 (RV) ± 4.81% 28% 3% 2% 7% 2% 10% [g] 48%
YouGov [A] October 5–17, 2023 409 (RV) ± 4.84% 21% 2% 2% 10% 2% 15% [h] 46%
Texas Hispanic
Policy Foundation
May 8–17, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 33% 22% 4% [i] 41%

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Colin Allred 569,585 58.9
Democratic Roland Gutierrez 160,978 16.6
Democratic Mark Gonzalez 85,228 8.8
Democratic Meri Gomez 44,166 4.6
Democratic Carl Sherman 31,694 3.3
Democratic Robert Hassan 21,855 2.3
Democratic Steven Keough 21,801 2.3
Democratic Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman 18,801 1.9
Democratic Thierry Tchenko 13,395 1.4
Total votes 967,503 100.00

Green primary

Candidates

Filed paperwork

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report [76] Likely R November 9, 2023
Inside Elections [77] Likely R November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [78] Likely R November 9, 2023
Elections Daily [79] Likely R May 4, 2023
CNalysis [80] Lean R November 21, 2023

Endorsements

Endorsements in bold were made after the primary election.

Colin Allred (D)
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Ted
Cruz (R)
Colin
Allred (D)
Other Undecided
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation April 5–10, 2024 1,600 (LV) ± 2.45% 46% 41% 4% [j] 9%
Cygnal (R) April 4–6, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 36% 5% [k] 14%
Marist College March 18–21, 2024 1,117 (RV) ± 3.8% 51% 45% 1% 3%
UT Tyler February 18–26, 2024 1,167 (RV) ± 3.2% 41% 41% 7% 12%
YouGov [A] February 2–12, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 3.49% 46% 32% 9% 13%
National Public Affairs February 6–8, 2024 807 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 44% 12%
YouGov [B] January 11–24, 2024 1,145 (RV) ± 2.5% 48% 39% 4% [l] 9%
Emerson College [C] January 13–15, 2024 1,315 (RV) ± 2.6% 42% 40% 8% 11%
YouGov [A] December 1–10, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.4% 43% 27% 15% [m] 15%
University of Texas at Tyler May 10–21, 2023 1,413 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 37% 8% [n] 14%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation May 8–17, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 47% 40% 4% [o] 9%
Hypothetical polling
Ted Cruz vs. Roland Gutierrez
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Ted
Cruz (R)
Roland
Gutierrez (D)
Other Undecided
YouGov [A] February 2–12, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 3.49% 45% 31% 9% 14%
YouGov [B] January 11–24, 2024 1,145 (RV) ± 2.5% 48% 38% 4% [l] 10%
Emerson College [C] January 13–15, 2024 1,315 (RV) ± 2.6% 41% 40% 8% 11%
YouGov [A] December 1–10, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.4% 42% 26% 16% [p] 17%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Texas
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Ted Cruz (incumbent)
Democratic Colin Allred
Total votes

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ $3,900 of this total was self-funded by Gonzalez
  3. ^ $6,050 of this total was self-funded by Keough
  4. ^ Steven Keough with 3%; Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman and Thierry Tchenko with 1%; Robert Hassan with 0%
  5. ^ Robert Hassan, Steven Keough, and Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman with 1%; Thierry Tchenko with 0%
  6. ^ Steven Keough, Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman, and Thierry Tchenko with 2%; Robert Hassan with 1%; "Someone else" with 8%
  7. ^ Sherri Taylor, Victor Dunn, and John Love III with 2%; Tracy Andrus, Aaron Arguijo, and Steven Keough with 1%; Teresa Naranjo, Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman, and Thierry Tchenko with 0%; "Someone else" with 1%
  8. ^ Sherri Taylor with 3%; Tracy Andrus, Steven Keough, Teresa Naranjo, and Thierry Tchenko with 2%; Aaron Arguijo, John Love III, and Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman with 1%; Victor Dunn with 0%; "Someone else" with 1%
  9. ^ John Love with 4%
  10. ^ Ted Brown (L) with 4%
  11. ^ Ted Brown (L) with 3%; Mason Cysewski (G) with 2%
  12. ^ a b Ted Brown (L) with 4%
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 15%
  14. ^ "Someone else" with 7%; Refused to answer with 1%
  15. ^ Libertarian candidate with 2%; Green Party candidate with 2%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 16%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h Poll sponsored by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas
  2. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston
  3. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group

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External links

Official campaign websites