From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
2024 United States Senate election in Texas
The 2024 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the
United States Senate to represent the state of
Texas . Two-term incumbent Republican Senator
Ted Cruz is seeking a third term in office.
[1] Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024 during
Super Tuesday .
[2]
U.S. Representative
Colin Allred won the Democratic nomination to challenge Cruz and will seek to become the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Texas since
1988 .
Background
Texas is generally considered to be a
Republican stronghold , having not elected a
Democrat to any statewide office since 1994.
[3]
Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, both houses of the
Texas Legislature , and a large majority in Texas'
U.S. House
congressional delegation .
Cruz was first elected in
2012 , defeating
Paul Sadler by 15.84 points and was reelected in
2018 by only 2.56 points, narrowly defeating
Beto O'Rourke .
[4]
[5] The close elections in
2018 prompted some analysts to believe that Texas could become a
swing state , but in the
2020 and
2022 elections, Republicans improved their margins of victory.
[6]
[7]
This race is considered to heavily favor Cruz, but some consider the race to have a potential to become competitive.
[8] Should Democrats win this election, it would be the first time they won a Texas U.S. Senate race since
1988 .
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Holland Gibson, retiree
[10]
Rufus Lopez, attorney
[10]
Declined
Endorsements
Ted Cruz
U.S. senators
Labor unions
Organizations
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024
Candidate
Raised
Spent
Cash on hand
Ted Cruz (R)
$46,587,309
$40,169,663
$6,575,604
Source:
Federal Election Commission
[22]
Polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
[a]
Margin of error
Ted Cruz
Holland Gibson
Rufus Lopez
Other
Undecided
YouGov
[A]
February 2–12, 2024
492 (RV)
± 4.42%
82%
7%
3%
9%
–
Results
Democratic primary
2024 United States Senate Democratic primary in Texas
Results by countyAllred: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Gutierrez: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Gonzalez: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% >90% Gomez: 20–30% Tied No Votes
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Disqualified
Withdrew
Declined
Endorsements
Colin Allred
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers and other media
Roland Gutierrez
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024
Candidate
Raised
Spent
Cash on hand
Colin Allred (D)
$21,371,157
$12,867,031
$8,504,126
Mark Gonzalez (D)
$14,967
[b]
$11,659
$3,307
Roland Gutierrez (D)
$1,301,543
$1,146,487
$155,055
Steven Keough (D)
$27,357
[c]
$27,730
$0
Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman (D)
$30,458
$29,440
$1,017
Carl Sherman (D)
$173,565
$150,616
$22,949
Thierry Tchenko (D)
$117,067
$106,606
$10,461
Source:
Federal Election Commission
[22]
Polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
[a]
Margin of error
Colin Allred
Meri Gomez
Mark Gonzalez
Roland Gutierrez
Carl Sherman
Other
Undecided
UT Tyler
February 18–26, 2024
441 (LV)
± 5.3%
37%
–
–
22%
6%
2%
32%
YouGov
[A]
February 2–12, 2024
354 (RV)
± 5.21%
52%
3%
5%
14%
2%
5%
[d]
18%
YouGov
[B]
January 11–24, 2024
1,500 (LV)
± 2.5%
40%
4%
2%
12%
1%
3%
[e]
38%
Emerson College
[C]
January 13–15, 2024
460 (RV)
± 4.81%
29%
4%
6%
7%
2%
15%
[f]
37%
YouGov
[A]
December 1–10, 2023
415 (RV)
± 4.81%
28%
3%
2%
7%
2%
10%
[g]
48%
YouGov
[A]
October 5–17, 2023
409 (RV)
± 4.84%
21%
2%
2%
10%
2%
15%
[h]
46%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
May 8–17, 2023
1,000 (RV)
± 2.9%
33%
–
–
22%
–
4%
[i]
41%
Results
Green primary
Candidates
Filed paperwork
General election
Predictions
Endorsements
Endorsements in bold were made after the primary election.
Ted Cruz (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
Labor unions
Organizations
Colin Allred (D)
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions
Polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
[a]
Margin of error
Ted Cruz (R)
Colin Allred (D)
Other
Undecided
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
April 5–10, 2024
1,600 (LV)
± 2.45%
46%
41%
4%
[j]
9%
Cygnal (R)
April 4–6, 2024
1,000 (RV)
± 2.9%
45%
36%
5%
[k]
14%
Marist College
March 18–21, 2024
1,117 (RV)
± 3.8%
51%
45%
1%
3%
UT Tyler
February 18–26, 2024
1,167 (RV)
± 3.2%
41%
41%
7%
12%
YouGov
[A]
February 2–12, 2024
1,200 (RV)
± 3.49%
46%
32%
9%
13%
National Public Affairs
February 6–8, 2024
807 (LV)
± 3.5%
44%
44%
–
12%
YouGov
[B]
January 11–24, 2024
1,145 (RV)
± 2.5%
48%
39%
4%
[l]
9%
Emerson College
[C]
January 13–15, 2024
1,315 (RV)
± 2.6%
42%
40%
8%
11%
YouGov
[A]
December 1–10, 2023
1,200 (RV)
± 2.4%
43%
27%
15%
[m]
15%
University of Texas at Tyler
May 10–21, 2023
1,413 (RV)
± 3.0%
42%
37%
8%
[n]
14%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
May 8–17, 2023
1,000 (RV)
± 2.9%
47%
40%
4%
[o]
9%
Hypothetical polling
Ted Cruz vs. Roland Gutierrez
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
[a]
Margin of error
Ted Cruz (R)
Roland Gutierrez (D)
Other
Undecided
YouGov
[A]
February 2–12, 2024
1,200 (RV)
± 3.49%
45%
31%
9%
14%
YouGov
[B]
January 11–24, 2024
1,145 (RV)
± 2.5%
48%
38%
4%
[l]
10%
Emerson College
[C]
January 13–15, 2024
1,315 (RV)
± 2.6%
41%
40%
8%
11%
YouGov
[A]
December 1–10, 2023
1,200 (RV)
± 2.4%
42%
26%
16%
[p]
17%
Results
Notes
^
a
b
c
d Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
^ $3,900 of this total was self-funded by Gonzalez
^ $6,050 of this total was self-funded by Keough
^ Steven Keough with 3%; Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman and Thierry Tchenko with 1%; Robert Hassan with 0%
^ Robert Hassan, Steven Keough, and Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman with 1%; Thierry Tchenko with 0%
^ Steven Keough, Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman, and Thierry Tchenko with 2%; Robert Hassan with 1%; "Someone else" with 8%
^ Sherri Taylor, Victor Dunn, and John Love III with 2%; Tracy Andrus, Aaron Arguijo, and Steven Keough with 1%; Teresa Naranjo, Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman, and Thierry Tchenko with 0%; "Someone else" with 1%
^ Sherri Taylor with 3%; Tracy Andrus, Steven Keough, Teresa Naranjo, and Thierry Tchenko with 2%; Aaron Arguijo, John Love III, and Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman with 1%; Victor Dunn with 0%; "Someone else" with 1%
^ John Love with 4%
^ Ted Brown (L) with 4%
^ Ted Brown (L) with 3%; Mason Cysewski (G) with 2%
^
a
b Ted Brown (L) with 4%
^ "Someone else" with 15%
^ "Someone else" with 7%; Refused to answer with 1%
^ Libertarian candidate with 2%; Green Party candidate with 2%
^ "Someone else" with 16%
Partisan clients
^
a
b
c
d
e
f
g
h Poll sponsored by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas
^
a
b
c Poll sponsored by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston
^
a
b
c Poll sponsored by
Nexstar Media Group
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a
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a
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a
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^
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^
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^
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a
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^
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a
b
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^
a
b
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^
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^
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^
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^
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a
b @LaCongresista (February 17, 2024).
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a
b
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^
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^
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^
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^
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^
a
b
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^ Chilliak, Matt (May 18, 2023).
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Rockport , MA Democrats . Retrieved February 11, 2024 .
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El Paso Times .
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^
"Candidates" . The Collective PAC . Retrieved September 8, 2023 .
^
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Tweet ). Retrieved May 16, 2023 – via
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^
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Archived from the original on September 6, 2023. Retrieved September 6, 2023 .
^
"Democrats Serve PAC endorses 12 new U.S. Senate and House candidates" .
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^
"Presenting the official Spring 2024 Harvard Dems Endorsement Results! Congratulations to all who were endorsed" .
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^
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^
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^ Hyer, Mika.
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Archived from the original on September 27, 2023. Retrieved September 27, 2023 .
^ NCPSSM.
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^
"2024 Federal Endorsements" . NOW PAC . Retrieved March 25, 2024 .
^
"Meet Our 2024 Candidates" . Peace Action .
Archived from the original on July 14, 2023. Retrieved July 14, 2023 .
^
"ENDORSEMENT ALERT: Planned Parenthood Action Fund Backs Candidates in Key Senate Races" . www.plannedparenthoodaction.org . Retrieved March 25, 2024 .
^
"Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Colin Allred for U.S. Senate in Texas" . Reproductive Freedom for All . April 3, 2024. Retrieved April 4, 2024 .
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