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Rubio: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Demings: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Florida |
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Government |
The 2022 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida.
Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee Val Demings in a landslide. Rubio was first elected in 2010, filling the seat of appointed Senator George LeMieux. The primary elections for Republicans and Democrats took place on August 23 to finalize candidates for the November election. [1] [2] Rubio won the uncontested Republican primary, while incumbent U.S. Representative Val Demings won the Democratic nomination. Rubio became the first Republican to win re-election to a third term in Florida history. [3]
Despite some predicting a close race early, [4] Rubio went on to win by a comfortable 16.4%, improving upon his 2016 performance by 8.7%.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ricardo De La Fuente |
Val Demings |
Brian Rush |
William Sanchez |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of North Florida | August 8–12, 2022 | 529 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 2% | 80% | 4% | 4% | 10% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Val Demings | 1,263,706 | 84.3 | |
Democratic | Brian Rush | 94,185 | 6.3 | |
Democratic | William Sanchez | 84,576 | 5.6 | |
Democratic | Ricardo De La Fuente | 56,749 | 3.8 | |
Total votes | 1,499,216 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [98] | Likely R | October 18, 2022 |
Inside Elections [99] | Likely R | August 25, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [100] | Likely R | August 24, 2022 |
Politico [101] | Likely R | November 3, 2022 |
RCP [102] | Lean R | February 24, 2022 |
Fox News [103] | Lean R | May 12, 2022 |
DDHQ [104] | Likely R | July 20, 2022 |
538 [105] | Solid R | November 4, 2022 |
The Economist [106] | Likely R | September 7, 2022 |
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Val Demings (D) |
Undecided [b] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | October 17, 2022 – November 6, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 52.4% | 43.6% | 4.0% | Rubio +8.8 |
FiveThirtyEight | September 18, 2022 – November 4, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 52.3% | 43.5% | 4.2% | Rubio +8.8 |
270towin | November 4–7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 51.6% | 42.4% | 6.0% | Rubio +9.2 |
Average | 52.1% | 43.2% | 4.7% | Rubio +8.9 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on
Phabricator and on
MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Val Demings (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 52% | 42% | 2% [c] | 4% |
Data for Progress (D) | November 2–6, 2022 | 1,436 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 43% | 2% [d] | – |
Amber Integrated (R) | November 1–2, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | 4% [e] | 7% |
Civiqs | October 29 – November 2, 2022 | 772 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 52% | 45% | 2% [f] | 1% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | November 1, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 45% | 1% [g] | 3% |
Siena College | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 659 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 43% | 2% [h] | 4% |
Victory Insights | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 50% | 46% | – | 5% |
Florida State University/YouGov | October 20–31, 2022 | 1,117 (RV) | – | 51% | 44% | – | – |
University of North Florida Archived November 10, 2022, at the Wayback Machine | October 17–24, 2022 | 622 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 54% | 43% | <1% [i] | 3% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 19–23, 2022 | 1,251 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 44% | 2% [j] | 2% |
Florida Atlantic University | October 12–16, 2022 | 719 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 42% | 3% [k] | 7% |
RMG Research (R) Archived November 15, 2022, at the Wayback Machine [A] | October 10–13, 2022 | 685 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | September 26–28, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 41% | 2% | 10% |
Siena College | September 18–25, 2022 | 669 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 41% | 2% [l] | 9% |
Civiqs | September 17–20, 2022 | 617 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 47% | 3% [m] | 2% |
Suffolk University | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 41% | 4% [n] | 9% |
Sachs Media | September 10, 2022 | 600 (LV) | – | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
Kurt Jetta (D) [B] | September 9–10, 2022 | 999 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 40% | – | 12% |
563 (LV) | 50% | 45% | – | 5% | |||
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 815 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 41% | – | 9% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | September 5–6, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% |
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) | August 29 – September 4, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | August 24–31, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [C] | August 25–30, 2022 | 3,017 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 46% | 45% | – | 9% |
Impact Research (D) [D] | August 12–18, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
Kurt Jetta (D) [B] | August 12–14, 2022 | 996 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 39% | – | 14% |
610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 41% | – | 7% | ||
University of North Florida | August 8–12, 2022 | 1,624 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 48% | 7% | 2% |
Change Research (D) [E] | August 2–5, 2022 | 1,031 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 46% | – | 7% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [C] | July 26–31, 2022 | 2,244 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 45% | 45% | – | 10% |
Kurt Jetta (D) [B] | July 9, 2022 | 906 (A) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 38% | – | 16% |
732 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 40% | – | 16% | ||
428 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% | ||
Public Policy Polling (D) [F] | May 26–27, 2022 | 655 (V) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
Phillips Academy | May 7–9, 2022 | 543 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 34% | 36% | – | 30% |
Moore Information Group (R) | March 14–19, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 32% | 8% [o] | 12% |
Saint Leo University Archived April 1, 2022, at the Wayback Machine | February 28 – March 12, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 27% | – | 28% |
Kurt Jetta (D) [B] | March 4, 2022 | 1,098 (A) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 26% | – | 29% |
893 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 27% | – | 28% | ||
446 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 35% | – | 16% | ||
University of North Florida | February 7–20, 2022 | 685 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 34% | – | 20% |
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | February 7–10, 2022 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% |
Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 41% | 0% | 10% |
St. Pete Polls | November 18–19, 2021 | 2,896 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 51% | 44% | – | 5% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 9, 2021 | 867 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 33% | 3% | 12% |
842 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 36% | 3% | 10% | ||
Saint Leo University | October 17–23, 2021 | 500 (A) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 29% | – | 25% |
VCreek/AMG (R) [G] | September 23–27, 2021 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 42% | 38% | 5% | 15% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 20–24, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 34% | 3% | 11% |
977 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 37% | 3% | 10% | ||
Political Matrix/Listener Group (R) | August 14–18, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 55% | 45% | – | – |
St. Pete Polls | August 16–17, 2021 | 2,068 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
Change Research (D) [H] | August 14–17, 2021 | 1,585 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | August 4–10, 2021 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 39% | 1% | 9% |
Political Matrix/Listener Group (R) | June 27, 2021 | 681 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 60% | 40% | – | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Aramis Ayala (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cherry Communications (R) | April 30 – May 8, 2021 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 39% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Alan Grayson (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 9, 2021 | 867 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 34% | 4% | 12% |
842 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 37% | 4% | 10% | ||
VCreek/AMG (R) [G] | September 23–27, 2021 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 32% | 10% | 14% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 20–24, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 33% | 4% | 12% |
977 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 36% | 4% | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Stephanie Murphy (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cherry Communications (R) | April 30 – May 8, 2021 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 41% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason-Dixon | February 24–28, 2021 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
Data for Progress (D) [I] | September 15–22, 2020 | 620 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
||||||
Marco Rubio | Val Demings | |||||
1 | Oct. 18, 2022 | Palm Beach State College | Todd McDermott | Youtube | P | P |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Marco Rubio (incumbent) | 4,474,847 | 57.68% | +5.70% | |
Democratic | Val Demings | 3,201,522 | 41.27% | -3.04% | |
Libertarian | Dennis Misigoy | 32,177 | 0.41% | -1.71% | |
Independent | Steven B. Grant | 31,816 | 0.41% | N/A | |
Independent | Tuan TQ Nguyen | 17,385 | 0.22% | N/A | |
Write-in | 267 | 0.00% | ±0.00% | ||
Total votes | 7,758,126 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican hold |
By county
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Rubio won 20 of 28 congressional districts. [125]
District | Rubio | Demings | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 72% | 27% | Matt Gaetz |
2nd | 60% | 39% | Neal Dunn |
3rd | 62% | 37% | Kat Cammack |
4th | 59% | 40% | Aaron Bean |
5th | 64% | 35% | John Rutherford |
6th | 66% | 33% | Michael Waltz |
7th | 57% | 42% | Stephanie Murphy ( 117th Congress) |
Cory Mills ( 118th Congress) | |||
8th | 63% | 36% | Bill Posey |
9th | 48% | 51% | Darren Soto |
10th | 39% | 60% | Val Demings ( 117th Congress) |
Maxwell Frost ( 118th Congress) | |||
11th | 61% | 38% | Daniel Webster |
12th | 68% | 31% | Gus Bilirakis |
13th | 56% | 42% | Anna Paulina Luna |
14th | 45% | 53% | Kathy Castor |
15th | 57% | 41% | Laurel Lee |
16th | 60% | 39% | Vern Buchanan |
17th | 63% | 35% | Greg Steube |
18th | 68% | 31% | Scott Franklin |
19th | 68% | 31% | Byron Donalds |
20th | 28% | 71% | Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick |
21st | 61% | 39% | Brian Mast |
22nd | 46% | 53% | Lois Frankel |
23rd | 48% | 51% | Jared Moskowitz |
24th | 29% | 69% | Frederica Wilson |
25th | 45% | 54% | Debbie Wasserman Schultz |
26th | 70% | 30% | Mario Díaz-Balart |
27th | 57% | 42% | María Elvira Salazar |
28th | 63% | 37% | Carlos A. Giménez |
Demographic subgroup | Demings | Rubio | No answer |
% of voters |
---|---|---|---|---|
Gender | ||||
Men | 37 | 62 | 1 | 49 |
Women | 48 | 51 | 1 | 51 |
Age | ||||
18–24 years old | 57 | 41 | 2 | 7 |
25–29 years old | 58 | 39 | 2 | 4 |
30–39 years old | 55 | 43 | N/A | 13 |
40–49 years old | 41 | 58 | 1 | 12 |
50–64 years old | 38 | 62 | N/A | 32 |
65 and older | 37 | 62 | 1 | 33 |
Race | ||||
White | 35 | 64 | 1 | 64 |
Black | 90 | 9 | N/A | 11 |
Latino | 41 | 56 | 2 | 21 |
Race by gender | ||||
White men | 28 | 71 | N/A | 32 |
White women | 43 | 57 | 2 | 32 |
Black men | 89 | 11 | 1 | 5 |
Black women | 92 | 8 | N/A | 6 |
Latino men | 42 | 55 | 2 | 10 |
Latina women | 41 | 57 | 1 | 11 |
Education | ||||
High school or less | 35 | 63 | 2 | 15 |
Some college education | 42 | 58 | 1 | 25 |
Associate degree | 42 | 57 | 2 | 19 |
Bachelor's degree | 44 | 54 | 1 | 24 |
Advanced degree | 48 | 51 | 1 | 17 |
Party ID | ||||
Democrats | 97 | 3 | N/A | 28 |
Republicans | 3 | 97 | 1 | 42 |
Independents | 48 | 49 | 2 | 30 |
Ideology | ||||
Liberals | 91 | 8 | 1 | 20 |
Moderates | 57 | 41 | 1 | 39 |
Conservatives | 7 | 93 | 2 | 42 |
Marital status | ||||
Married | 40 | 60 | 1 | 59 |
Unmarried | 50 | 48 | 2 | 41 |
Gender by marital status | ||||
Married men | 33 | 66 | 1 | 30 |
Married women | 46 | 53 | 1 | 29 |
Unmarried men | 48 | 51 | 3 | 18 |
Unmarried women | 52 | 47 | 2 | 23 |
First-time midterm election voter | ||||
Yes | 42 | 58 | 4 | 11 |
No | 44 | 55 | N/A | 89 |
Most important issue facing the country | ||||
Crime | 32 | 66 | 2 | 10 |
Inflation | 28 | 72 | 1 | 39 |
Gun policy | 63 | 36 | N/A | 10 |
Immigration | 12 | 88 | N/A | 10 |
Abortion | 81 | 18 | N/A | 24 |
Area type | ||||
Urban | 45 | 54 | 1 | 46 |
Suburban | 42 | 57 | 2 | 44 |
Rural | 31 | 68 | N/A | 10 |
Source: CNN [126] |