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For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.

2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
←  2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee Bob Casey Jr. David McCormick
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic



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The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Primary elections took place on April 23, 2024. [1] Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. announced his intention to run for a fourth term on April 10, 2023. [2]

Background

Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, the Governorship, a majority of its U.S. House congressional delegation, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat was in 2016. [3] [4] [5] [6]

Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points and in 2018 by 13 percentage points. [7] [8] [9]

The race is expected to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean, but most analysts consider Casey to be the narrow favorite. [10]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

Endorsements

Bob Casey Jr.
Executive officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
Individuals
Political parties
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Bob Casey Jr. (D) $23,790,263 $12,391,802 $11,886,480
Source: Federal Election Commission [40]

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 1,011,430 100.0
Total votes 1,011,430 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Disqualified

  • Joseph Vodvarka, spring manufacturer and perennial candidate [43]

Declined

Endorsements

David McCormick
Executive Branch officials
Federal officials
State cabinet officials
U.S senators
U.S. representatives
State senators
Local officials
  • Sam DeMarco, at-large Allegheny County councilor (2016–present) and chair of the Allegheny County Republican Party (2018–present) [61]
Party officials
Organizations
Political parties
Individuals

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Dave McCormick (R) $11,052,879 $4,660,701 $6,399,998
Source: Federal Election Commission [40]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error 		Kathy
Barnette 		Doug
Mastriano 		David
McCormick 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) March 9–10, 2023 616 (LV) – 11% 39% 21% 29%
– – 42% 28% 29%

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David McCormick 872,303 100.0
Total votes 872,303 100.0

Libertarian convention

The Pennsylvania Libertarian Party officially nominated John Thomas at the party's state convention on March 2, 2024. [70]

Candidates

Nominee

  • John Thomas, educator [70]

Eliminated at convention

  • Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, small business owner, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022, and candidate for president in 2020 [71]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report [72] Lean D November 9, 2023
Inside Elections [73] Tilt D November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [74] Likely D November 9, 2023
Elections Daily [75] Likely D May 4, 2023
CNalysis [76] Lean D November 21, 2023

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		David
McCormick (R) 		Other Undecided
The Bullfinch Group [A] March 29 – April 3, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 38% 9% 8%
National Public Affairs March 2024 759 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 28% – 40%
Franklin & Marshall College March 20–31, 2024 431 (RV) ± 5.7% 46% 39% – 15%
The Bullfinch Group [B] March 22–26, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 30% 8% 15%
Emerson College March 10–13, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% – –
Susquehanna Polling & Research February 27 – March 7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 42% – 10%
Emerson College February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 39% – 13%
Chism Strategies February 6–8, 2024 500 (RV) ± 5.0% 38% 37% – 25%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [C] January 22–25, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 40% – 12%
Franklin & Marshall College January 17–28, 2023 1,006 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 35% 4% 14%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) January 15–21, 2024 745 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 42% 3% 9%
Quinnipiac University January 4–8, 2024 1,680 (RV) ± 2.4% 53% 43% 1% [b] 2%
Common Ground (R) [D] December 8–12, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 27% 13% [c] 20%
Change Research (D) [E] December 3–7, 2023 2,532 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 41% 0% 15%
Franklin & Marshall College October 11–22, 2023 873 (RV) ± 4.1% 46% 39% 4% 12%
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 430 (RV) ± 4.7% 41% 33% 8% 18%
Quinnipiac University September 28 – October 2, 2023 1,725 (RV) ± 2.4% 50% 44% 2% [d] 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) May 2–8, 2023 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 53% 41% 1% 5%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% 0% 13%
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 6.6% 42% 35% – 23%
Hypothetical polling
Bob Casey Jr. vs. Doug Mastriano
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		Doug
Mastriano (R) 		Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 3.7% 47% 31% 22%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent)
Republican David McCormick
Libertarian John Thomas
Total votes

Notes

  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  3. ^ "None of the above" with 8%; "Other" with 5%
  4. ^ "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Independent Center
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation
  3. ^ Poll commissioned for David McCormick
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation, a conservative think tank
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by Future Majority, a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party.

References

  1. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  2. ^ "Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats' Senate outlook for 2024 | CNN Politics". CNN. April 10, 2023.
  3. ^ "Pennsylvania 2020 presidential election results". CNN. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  4. ^ "Pennsylvania Governor Midterm Election Results and Maps 2022 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  5. ^ Narea, Nicole (February 8, 2023). "Democrats in Pennsylvania just won the 2022 midterms. Again". Vox. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  6. ^ "United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016". Ballotpedia. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  7. ^ A 501tax-exempt; Street, charitable organization 1100 13th; NW; Washington, Suite 800; Dc 20005857-0044. "Pennsylvania Senate 2006 Race". OpenSecrets. Retrieved March 19, 2023.{{ cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list ( link)
  8. ^ "Pennsylvania". The New York Times. ISSN  0362-4331. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  9. ^ "Pennsylvania Senate Election Results 2018: Live Midterm Map by County & Analysis". www.politico.com. November 7, 2018. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  10. ^ Hudson, Lee (April 10, 2023). "Bob Casey running for Senate reelection". Politico. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
  11. ^ Wright, David (April 10, 2023). "Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats' Senate outlook for 2024". CNN. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
  12. ^ The Associated Press (February 22, 2024). "Two more candidates file papers to run for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania". WTAE-TV. Retrieved February 23, 2024.
  13. ^ Cole, John (March 6, 2024). "Pennsylvania GOP U.S. Senate candidate McCormick endorses Trump for president". Pennsylvania-Capital Star. Retrieved March 7, 2024. Casey will be the only Democrat on the primary ballot for U.S. Senate after a successful objection against William Parker's nomination petitions removed him from the ballot.
  14. ^ a b c d Lyons, Kim (July 26, 2023). "Casey campaign gets a boost from Pennsylvania veterans' coalition". Pennsylvania Capital-Star. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  15. ^ a b c Kail, Benjamin (April 30, 2023). "Sen. Bob Casey is starting his 2024 Senate campaign with a big head start". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  16. ^ "Mark Kelly isn't on the 2024 ballot. He's traveling the country for Dems anyway". Politico. January 30, 2024.
  17. ^ a b "NextGen PAC Endorses Senator Bob Casey Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  18. ^ Prose, J. D. (December 16, 2023). "Pa. Democrats make 2024 endorsements, but attorney general's race remains open". The Patriot-News. Retrieved December 16, 2023.
  19. ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  20. ^ "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
  21. ^ a b "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Bob Casey for Reelection". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". June 26, 2023. Retrieved June 26, 2023.
  22. ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
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  24. ^ "Presenting the official Spring 2024 Harvard Dems Endorsement Results! Congratulations to all who were endorsed! 🫶🏻✨". www.instagram.com. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
  25. ^ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved February 16, 2024.
  26. ^ "JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  27. ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  28. ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  29. ^ "National Social Security Advocacy Group Endorses Senator Bob Casey for Re-Election". National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare (Press release). April 12, 2024. Retrieved April 12, 2024.
  30. ^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  31. ^ "Meet Our 2024 Candidates". Peace Action. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
  32. ^ "PSEA recommends U.S. Sen. Bob Casey for reelection". Pennsylvania State Education Association. January 18, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  33. ^ "Make a high-impact donation—without all the usual drama". Swing Left.
  34. ^ Kauffman, William (March 14, 2024). "PRESS RELEASE: AFSCME Council 13 members unanimously endorse Senator Bob Casey". Council 13 AFSCME. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  35. ^ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  36. ^ Lyons, Kim. "Casey picks up PA AFL-CIO endorsement". Pennsylvania Capital-Star. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
  37. ^ "United Mine Workers endorses Casey for re-election in Pennsylvania". UMWA. Archived from the original on September 30, 2023. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
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  39. ^ Staff, P. G. N. (April 10, 2024). "PGN Editorial Endorsements: Primary 2024". Philadelphia Gay News. Retrieved April 24, 2024.
  40. ^ a b "2024 Election United States Senate - Pennsylvania". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  41. ^ Steinhauser, Paul (September 21, 2023). "Republican Dave McCormick launches bid for vulnerable Senate seat in battleground state". Fox News. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
  42. ^ Cole, John (March 8, 2024). "Three candidates for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat remain on ballot following petition challenges". Pennsylvania Capital-Star. Retrieved March 9, 2024.
  43. ^ Cole, John (March 11, 2024). "Casey vs McCormick general election matchup appears set after petition challenges". Pennsylvania-Capital Star. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  44. ^ Lippman, Daniel; Otterbein, Holly (March 15, 2023). "MAGA favorite Kathy Barnette says she won't run again for Senate". POLITICO. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
  45. ^ "A well-liked incumbent stands in the way of Republicans retaking the Pennsylvania Senate seat". May 25, 2023.
  46. ^ Cruz, Abby; McDuffie, Will (September 15, 2023). "Republican who narrowly lost to Dr. Oz expected to run again for Senate". ABC News. Retrieved September 23, 2023.
  47. ^ Weaver, Al (May 25, 2023). "Doug Mastriano decides against launching Senate bid". The Hill.
  48. ^ a b Smith, Allan; Bowman, Bridget (September 21, 2023). "Republican Dave McCormick jumps into the critical Pennsylvania Senate race". NBC News. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
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  51. ^ "Ambassador John Bolton Endorses Dave McCormick for Senate in Pennsylvania". John Bolton PAC. April 3, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
  52. ^ Siwy, Bruce (September 21, 2023). "Who is David McCormick? Here are 5 things to know about Bob Casey's possible GOP opponent". Erie Times-News. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
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  66. ^ Penn State College Republicans (@PennStateGOP) (October 1, 2023). "Penn State College Republicans Endorse Dave McCormick for United States Senate". Twitter. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  67. ^ "RJC Endorses Pennsylvania US Senate Candidate Dave McCormick". Republican Jewish Coalition. Retrieved February 16, 2024.
  68. ^ Mastrull, Diane (September 30, 2023). "David McCormick secures Pa. GOP endorsement in his Senate run". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
  69. ^ a b c Lai, Stephanie (December 14, 2023). "Ken Griffin, Charles Schwab to Host Fundraiser for David McCormick's Senate Bid". Bloomberg. Retrieved April 17, 2024.
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  71. ^ "Nominations for Statewide Offices". Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania. March 2, 2024. Retrieved April 14, 2024.
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  75. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  76. ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.

External links

Official campaign websites
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