The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial
presidential election, set to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] Voters will elect a
president and
vice president for a term of four years. The incumbent president,
Joe Biden, a member of the
Democratic Party, is running for re-election.[2] His predecessor,
Donald Trump, a member of the
Republican Party, is running for re-election for a second, non-consecutive term, after losing to Biden in the
2020 presidential election.[3] If both are nominated, this will mark the first presidential election rematch since
1956.[4]
Article Two of the
United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a
natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The
Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of
primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential
running mate to form that party's
ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.
The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the
Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[25]
Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny, so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election. Both Biden and Trump are presumptive nominees for president in 2024, suggesting a rematch of the 2020 election, which would be the first presidential rematch since
1956.[26] If Trump is elected, he would become the second president to win a second non-consecutive term, joining
Grover Cleveland who did so
in 1892.[27]
To sow election doubt, Trump has escalated use of "rigged election" and "election interference" statements in advance of the 2024 election compared to the previous two elections—the statements described as part of a "heads I win; tails you cheated" rhetorical strategy.[35]
Donald Trump has made false claims of
voter fraud in the
2020 presidential election, and has continued denying the election results as of June 2024[update].[36][37] Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results.[38] In the lead up to the 2024 election, the Republican Party has made false claims of massive "noncitizen voting" by immigrants in an attempt to delegitimize the election if Trump loses.[39][40][41]
The claims have been made as part of a larger
election denial movement in the United States.[42] Trump has continued spreading his "
Big Lie" of a
stolen election and has claimed without evidence that the 2024 election is rigged. Trump has baselessly claimed some version of "election interference" against him roughly once per day since announcing his 2024 candidacy. Trump has falsely accused Biden of "weaponizing" the Justice Department to target him in relation to his
criminal trials.[35] Trump and several Republicans have stated they will not accept the results of the 2024 election if they believe they are "unfair."[43]
Current and former U.S. officials have stated that foreign interference in the 2024 election is likely. Three major factors cited were "America's deepening domestic political crises, the collapse of controversial attempts to control political speech on social media, and the rise of generative AI."[61] On April 1, 2024, The New York Times reported that the Chinese government had created fake pro-Trump accounts on social media "promoting conspiracy theories, stoking domestic divisions and attacking President Biden ahead of the election in November."[62] According to disinformation experts and intelligence agencies, Russia spread disinformation ahead of the 2024 election to damage Joe Biden and Democrats, boost candidates supporting isolationism, and undercut support for Ukraine aid and NATO.[63][64]
Criminal trials and indictments against Donald Trump
Trump's
four criminal indictments totaling 91 felony counts and
lawsuits against Trump are expected to be an issue during the 2024 presidential campaign.[65] On May 30, Trump was found guilty by a jury of all 34 felony counts in The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump over falsifying business records for
hush money payments to adult film star
Stormy Daniels, to ensure her silence about
a sexual encounter between them, to influence the 2016 presidential election. This makes Trump the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime in American history.[66] Trump and many Republicans have made numerous false and misleading statements regarding Trump's criminal trials, including false claims that they are "rigged" or "election interference" orchestrated by Joe Biden and the Democratic Party, of which there is no evidence.[67][35]
According to an April 2024 Reuters/Ipsos poll, the percentage of registered voters who found Trump's charges somewhat to very serious in the federal elections case was 74%, 72% in the Georgia case, 69% in the classified documents case, and 64% in the New York hush money case.[75] Nearly a quarter of Republican voters said they would not vote for Trump if found guilty of a felony by a jury.[74] Following his hush money conviction, 15% of likely Republican voters and 49% of independents stated they wanted Trump to drop out, and 54% of registered voters approved of the jury's decision.[76] Polling also found 56% of Republicans who were unchanged by the verdict, and 35% of Republicans and 18% of independents who stated they were more likely to vote for Trump.[77]
Trump has been noted for attempting to delay his trials until after the November election. If Trump wins the election in November, on January 20, 2025, Trump could order a new attorney general to dismiss the federal charges he is facing, prevent the state charges from taking affect through a variety of methods, and issue a presidential self-pardon.[78][79]
This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the
reapportionment of votes in the
United States Electoral College following the
2020 United States census.[80][81] If the results of the 2020 election were to stay the same (which has never occurred in the history of presidential elections) in 2024, Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans' 235, a slight change from Biden's 306 electoral votes and Trump's 232, meaning that Democrats lost a net of 3 electoral votes to the reapportionment process. This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain only through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.[82]
The expected partisan lean of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia on the presidential level. The shading of each state denotes the winner's two-party vote share, averaged between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. States that flipped in 2020 are colored gray.
In recent presidential elections, most states are not competitive due to demographics keeping them solidly behind one of the major parties. Because of the nature of the
Electoral College, this means that the various
swing states — competitive states that "swing" between the Democratic and Republican parties — are vital to winning the presidency. As of now, these include states in the
Rust Belt, such as
Wisconsin,
Michigan, and
Pennsylvania, and states in the
Sun Belt, such as
Nevada,
Arizona, and
Georgia.[83] Strategists in both parties have stated the election will likely be decided by six percent of voters in these six states.[84]
North Carolina may also be considered a battleground state, due to the close result in the
previous presidential election, in which Trump only won by 1.34%.[85] Due to gradual demographic shifts, some former swing states such as
Iowa,
Ohio and
Florida have shifted significantly towards the Republicans, favoring them in future statewide and local elections. Meanwhile, former swing states like
Colorado,
New Mexico and
Oregon have moved noticeably towards the Democrats, and the party has become the dominant political force there.[86][87][88]
The Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, performs
best among Jewish and
Black voters;[89][90]Whites who have attended college[91] or live in
urban areas.[92]Working class voters were also a mainstay of the Democratic coalition since the days of the
New Deal, but since the 1970s, many have defected to Republicans as the Democratic Party moved significantly to the left on cultural issues.[93] Conversely, the traditional Republican coalition that dominates many "red states" is mainly composed of rural White voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters.[94] Republicans have also historically performed well with
suburban,
middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them in recent years due to the rise of the
Tea Party movement and later the
Make America Great Again movement.[95] The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the
2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat
Joe Biden, because the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there significantly.[96]
Some polling for this election has indicated that Democratic strength among
Hispanic,
Asian,
Arab, and
youth voters appears to have somewhat eroded, while Republicans' durability with Whites and voters over the age of 65 also appears to be slipping.[97][98][99][100][101] However, some political analysts[102] have argued that these apparent trends in polling are not representative of the actual electorate, and are a polling mirage resulting from poor sampling months before the election, large numbers of voters who do not think the election will be between Biden and Trump,[103] and heavy non-response bias.[104][105][106][107]
Abortion access is expected to be a key topic during the campaign.[112] This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of two major court rulings that affected access to
abortion. The first is the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion law entirely to the states, including bans on abortion.[113] The three justices appointed by former president Donald Trump—
Amy Coney Barrett,
Brett Kavanaugh, and
Neil Gorsuch—all voted to overturn the federal right to an abortion in Dobbs.[114] The second court case is the 2023 Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. U.S. Food and Drug Administration, in which a federal judge in northwest Texas overturned the
FDA's approval of
mifepristone in 2000, which could potentially pull the medication from the market if upheld by higher courts.[115] Both rulings have received strong support from
Republican politicians and lawmakers.[113][115]
Biden has called on Congress to codify abortion protections into federal law, and held many rallies on the issue.[118][119] Trump has claimed credit for overturning Roe, but has criticized Republicans pushing for total abortion bans.[120][121] Trump has said he will leave the issue of abortion for the states to decide, but would allow red states to monitor women's pregnancies and prosecute them if they have an abortion.[122]
Polling has shown that border security and immigration are among the top issues concerning potential voters in the 2024 presidential election.[123][124] In 2023 and 2024, a surge of migrants entering the country through the United States' border with Mexico occurred.[125]
Donald Trump has pledged to finish
the wall on the southern border if elected.
Donald Trump has stated that if elected, he would increase deportations, send the U.S. military to the border, expand ICE detentions through workplace raids,[126] deputize local law enforcement to handle border security, increase Customs and Border Patrol funding as well as finish building the wall on the southern border.[127]The New York Times reported that Trump plans "an extreme expansion of his first-term crackdown on immigration," including "preparing to round up undocumented people already in the United States on a vast scale and detain them in sprawling camps while they wait to be expelled."[126] Trump has stated his intention to deport 11 million people through the construction of detention camps and using the military.[122]
Biden has stated his intention to increase funding and resources for border patrol and enforcement, provide a path for people in the United States to apply for legal status and eventually citizenship, and create a smoother and expanded visa process for foreign graduates of American universities.[128] The Biden administration has undertaken a policy of punishing migrants who enter the country illegally and providing temporary protections to migrants from certain countries such as Venezuela, Ukraine, Nicaragua, Cuba and Haiti. This has resulted in a total increase in migrants legally arriving at points of entry, and a decrease in migrants attempting to illegally cross the border.[127]
In February 2024, Biden and congressional negotiators reached a bipartisan agreement on a bill to secure the border that included many conservative demands and also unlocked aid to Ukraine and Israel, but the bill was opposed by Trump who claimed it would hurt Republicans' ability to run on immigration as a campaign issue.[129][130][131][132][133][134] On June 4, 2024, Biden
passed an executive order to shut down the border if illegal crossings reached an average of 2,500 migrants a day in a given week.[135]
Trump's anti-immigration tone is noted to have grown harsher from his previous time as president,[126] and has drawn criticism for using more dehumanizing rhetoric when referring to some illegal immigrants. Trump has called some immigrants "not human", "not people", and "animals".[136][137][138] Since fall 2023,[139] Trump has claimed that immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country," which has drawn comparisons to
racial hygiene rhetoric used by white supremacists and Adolf Hitler.[140][141][139][142] Trump's comments come as part of violent, dehumanizing rhetoric Trump has increasingly utilized during his campaign.[143][136][144][142][145][146]
Kennedy has stated that he supports securing the border, including efforts like
Operation Lone Star by states in the absence of federal action.[147]
Biden has stated he believes in human-caused
climate change.[149] Biden previously strengthened environmental protections that had been weakened during the Trump administration. Biden passed the
Inflation Reduction Act, the largest investment in addressing climate change and clean energy in US history.[150] Biden has also overseen a record in US crude oil production with over 13.2 million barrels of crude per day beating the 13 million barrels per day produced at the peak of Trump's presidency. Biden has previously stated his intention to lower prices at the gas pump, which experts believe is key to his 2024 reelection campaign.[151] Biden's first term dealt with supply shocks caused by the
2021-2024 global energy crisis due to the
COVID-19 pandemic and
Russian invasion of Ukraine.[152]
Trump is running on a
climate change denial platform.[153][154][155] Trump has repeatedly referred to his energy policy under the mantra "
drill, baby, drill",[156] has promised to increase oil drilling on public lands and offer tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal producers. Trump has stated his goal for the U.S. to have the lowest cost of electricity and energy of any country in the world.[157] Trump has promised to rollback electric vehicle initiatives, proposed leaving the
Paris Climate Accords, and rescinding several environmental regulations.[157][158]
Joe Biden has been framing the election as a battle for democracy, which was similar to his framing of contemporary geopolitics as "the battle between democracy and autocracy."[159] Biden's rhetoric previously cited democracy and "a battle for the soul of our nation" as the key message of his 2020 presidential campaign, and uses it as a recurring element in his rhetoric since the 2020 presidential election.[111]
Polling before the election has indicated profound dissatisfaction with the state of American democracy.[160][161][162]Liberals tend to believe that
conservatives are threatening the country with
autocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election.[163] Some Republicans are concerned that Trump's former
impeachment and
four criminal indictments are attempts to influence the election and keep him from office.[164] However, there is no evidence that Trump's criminal trials are "election interference" orchestrated by Joe Biden and the Democratic Party.[67][35]
Speaking on Erin Burnett OutFront, Kennedy said that President Biden poses a bigger threat to democracy than Donald Trump.[174] Trump has claimed that Joe Biden is the "destroyer"[175] and real threat to democracy,[176] and has repeated
false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen from him, of which there has been no evidence. Trump's claims have been made as part of a larger
election denial movement conspiracy theory in the United States.[175]
Democracy is expected to be a large issue in the 2024 election. An AP-NORC poll of 1,074 adults conducted between November 30 to December 4, 2023, found that 62% of adults said democracy could be at risk depending on who wins the next election.[177]
Women were particularly affected by the economic downturn in the wake of the pandemic, particularly those who left their work for childcare responsibilities.[184] Temporary childcare measures, including an expanded
child tax credit as part of the
American Rescue Plan, were introduced as methods designed to help the economic situation of parents, but these would expire before the 2024 election.[185]
Biden has dubbed his economic policy "Bidenomics" and has promised to create middle-class jobs and reject
trickle-down economics.[195] Biden has proposed increasing taxes on large corporations and wealthy Americans to reduce the deficit and help fund programs for the poor and middle class by instituting a "billionaire minimum income tax."[196] Biden's trade agenda has been noted to reject traditional
neoliberal economic policies and the
Washington Consensus in favor of de-risking supply chains from China and reverse neoliberal policies that resulted in the offshoring of manufacturing and thus resulted in increased
populist backlash.[197]
Trump has proposed further individual and corporate tax cuts beyond his prior 2017 tax cuts.[198] Trump has argued that keeping taxes low for the wealthy increases job creation.[196] Trump's stated trade policy involves the United States decoupling from the global economy and having the country become more self-contained and exerting its power through individual trade dealings. This would be accomplished through a universal baseline tariff[199] of 10% on all imports,[200] with increased penalties if trade partners manipulate their currency or engage in unfair trade practices.[157]
Trump has called for 100% tariffs on cars made outside the U.S. and a minimum 60% tariff on Chinese goods.[200] Trump stated his plans to urge Congress to pass a "Trump Reciprocal Trade Act" to bestow presidential authority to impose a reciprocal tariff on any country that imposed one on the United States.[157]The Washington Post reported in January 2024 that Trump was preparing for a massive trade war.[201] Trump's trade policies have been described as
protectionist,[202]neomercantilist or
autarkist.[199][203]
Under the Biden administration, several rounds of
student loan forgiveness have been issued, totaling over $132 billion. The forgiveness has largely focused on public servants, people who were defrauded, and people in repayment for long periods of time.[204] In August 2022, Biden announced he would sign an executive order that would forgive large amounts of student debt, including $10,000 for student loan debt for single graduates making less than $125,000 or married couples making less than $250,000 and $20,000 for recipients of
Pell Grants.[205][206]
In June 2023, this plan was overturned in the Supreme Court decision Biden v. Nebraska.[207][208] In the aftermath of the decision, Biden has continued with more limited student loan forgiveness.[204] His plans have been criticized by Republicans as irresponsible spending.[209] Biden stated that offering universal pre-kindergarten services as well as caregiver support would be a priority of a second term.[210]
Some Republican candidates saw education as a winning campaign issue. Dozens of states have created laws preventing the instruction of
critical race theory, an academic discipline focused on the examination of racial inequality. Supporters of the laws claim that conversations about racial identity are not appropriate for a school environment.[211][212][15] Critics of the laws against critical race theory claim they
whitewash American history and act as
memory laws to rewrite public memory of U.S. history.[213] Trump has pledged to terminate the
Department of Education,[157] claiming it has been infiltrated by "radical zealots and Marxists."[214]
The United States has provided
significant military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[216][217][218] Biden has made strengthening the
NATO alliance and preparing for great power competition a cornerstone of his first term in office,[219] and has promised to defend the NATO alliance during his second term.[220] Donald Trump claims that Ukraine and suppressing Russian intervention should not be a significant interest to the United States, and that the plan should be more limited.[221]
Trump previously stated he would potentially recognize
Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea,[222] and made suggestions that he could have prevented the war by ceding parts of eastern Ukraine to Russia.[223] Trump's 2024 campaign has reiterated its
isolationist "
America First" foreign policy agenda,[223] and has promised to "fundamentally reevaluate"
NATO's purpose and mission.[157] Trump has stated he would encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" to countries that did not contribute enough to NATO.[224]
During the Israel–Hamas war, Biden announced "unequivocal" military support for
Israel, and condemned the actions of
Hamas and other Palestinian militants as terrorism.[225] Biden has requested 10.6 billion dollars of aid for Israel to Congress.[226] Biden's support for Israel has been criticized by progressives and Muslim leaders, many of whom have indicated they will not vote for Biden over the war.[227] By March 2024, Biden has become increasingly critical of Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu and the
humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and has authorized air drops of aid and announced the construction of a military port to facilitate the delivery of aid to the enclave.[228][229] Kennedy condemned Hamas' attacks on Israeli civilians and declared support for aid to Israel.[230] Trump has given mixed messages on the war, pledging to support Israel and take a tough line on
Iran, while also criticizing Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu and praising
Hezbollah as "very smart."[231][232]
Polling has indicated a significant divide between
government policy on the Israel–Hamas war and the views of the general public.[233] During the election, several pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian
protests occurred in the United States. Biden voiced support for the right to protest but criticized when they became violent or antisemitic.[234] Trump has stated he would shut down
Palestinian protests, deport demonstrators, and "set the movement back 25 or 30 years."[235]
A November 2023 poll had 68% of Americans agreeing with a statement that "Israel should call a ceasefire and try to negotiate" and a plurality opposed
military aid to Israel, favoring the United States as a neutral meditator.[233] A February 2024 Associated Press poll found that 44% saw Israel as "a partner that the U.S. should cooperate with, but doesn't share its interests and values", while 35% saw Israel "as an ally that shares U.S. interests and values". 50% of Americans believed Israel had "gone too far" in its response, 31% thought Israel had "been about right" and 15% thought Israel had "not gone far enough".[236] Young Americans are significantly less supportive of Israel than older generations.[237][238] However, polling showed the war was only a "top concern" for 2% of young voters, well below inflation, the economy, and immigration.[239]
Trump has made repealing the
Affordable Care Act a key issue of the 2024 election.[14] During an interview on March 11, 2024, Trump suggested he was open to cutting entitlement programs such as
Social Security and
Medicare, which the Trump campaign later claimed was merely referring to "cutting waste" and that he would protect the programs. Trump previously suggested while president in 2020 that he would "at some point" look into cutting entitlement programs, and Trump's previous budget proposals have suggested some cuts to the programs. During the Republican primary, Trump attacked his opponents by suggesting they would cut entitlement benefits.[242][243]
Biden has touted the
Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which expanded the Affordable Care Act and included provisions to reduce prescription drug prices for people on Medicare.[244] Biden has promised to protect and defend the
Affordable Care Act after Trump commented he would seek to replace the law if he wins a second term,[245][246] and Republican senators expressed openness to repealing certain sections of the law.[247][248] Biden has promised to defend
Social Security and
Medicare following comments made by Trump that suggested he was open to cutting the entitlement programs.[242][243] Biden has also signaled his intention to expand the price cap on the cost of insulin at $35 for Medicare recipients enacted as part of the Inflation Reduction Act to private insurance.[128] Biden previously signed one of the largest expansions in veterans benefits in American history through the
Honoring our PACT Act of 2022 that provided medical care for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits.[249]
Kennedy has been a prominent anti-vaccine advocate, but according to Deseret News, he has attempted to moderate his anti-vaccine position before the election, stating that he is not against all vaccines.[250] West is running on a platform of
Medicare-for-all.[251]
Students in
Des Moines protesting an anti-trans law signed by Republican Governor
Kim Reynolds in 2022
In recent years, conservative politicians in state legislatures have introduced a large and growing number of bills that restrict the rights of LGBT people, especially transgender people.[252][253]
In his term as president, Biden signed the
Respect for Marriage Act, which codified protections for same-sex and interracial marriage into law. Additionally, he has endorsed the
Equality Act, legislation aiming to extend the
Civil Rights Act of 1964 to offer protection on the basis of gender identity and sexual orientation across various domains such as in the workplace, housing, and health care sectors. In 2023, Biden directed the federal government to provide strategies to states on how to enhance access to healthcare and suicide prevention resources for the LGBT community.[254]
Trump has promised a rollback on trans rights.[255] Trump stated he will rescind Biden's
Title IX protections "on day one" for transgender students using bathrooms, locker rooms, and pronouns that align with their gender identities.[256] Trump has stated he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders and claimed that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left."[257] Trump has promised "severe consequences" for teachers that "suggest to a child that they could be trapped in the wrong body." Trump previously removed Title IX protections to ensure transgender youth had access to bathrooms of their choice and took steps to roll back transgender protections in the Affordable Care Act.[255]
On April 25, 2023, President
Joe Biden announced his run for re-election, keeping Vice President
Kamala Harris as his running mate.[258][259] Consequently, Republicans have intensified their criticism of Harris since Biden declared his intention to run for office.[260] During late 2021, as Biden was facing low approval ratings, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election,[261] and some prominent Democrats,
RepresentativesCarolyn Maloney,
Tim Ryan and former Representative
Joe Cunningham, publicly urged Biden not to run.[262][263][264]
In addition to Biden's unpopularity, many are concerned about his age; he was
the oldest person to assume the office at age 78 and would be 82 at the end of his first term. If re-elected, he would be 86 at the end of his second term.[265] According to an NBC poll released in April 2023, 70 percent of Americans—including 51 percent of Democrats—believe Biden should not run for a second term. Almost half said it was because of his age. According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, Biden's current approval rating is 41 percent, while 55 percent disapprove.[266] There was also speculation that Biden may face a primary challenge from a member of the
Democratic Party's progressive faction.[267][268] After Democrats outperformed expectations in the
2022 midterm elections, many believed the chances that Biden would run for and win his party's nomination had increased.[269]
Author
Marianne Williamson announced her candidacy in February 2023, before Biden announced his own candidacy for re-election. Williamson had previously sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.[270] In April 2023,
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his candidacy for the nomination.[271] On October 9, 2023, Kennedy announced that he would be dropping out of the Democratic primary and would instead run as an independent candidate.[272] Representative
Dean Phillips announced his run against Biden on October 26.[273] Venture capitalist
Jason Palmer announced his campaign on October 22.[274]
On March 6, 2024, Philips suspended his campaign after failing to win any primaries the previous night on
Super Tuesday,[275] followed by Williamson on June 11.[276] Despite being perceived as a minor candidate, Palmer won the
2024 American Samoa Democratic presidential caucuses, making him the first candidate to win a contested primary against an incumbent president since
Ted Kennedy in
1980.[277] He won no other contests and suspended his candidacy on May 15, 2024.[278]
On March 12, 2024, Biden officially became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.[279]
Donald Trump, the then-incumbent president, was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election and is not term-limited to run again in 2024, making him the fifth ex-president to seek a second non-consecutive term. If he wins, Trump would be the second president to win a non-consecutive term, after
Grover Cleveland in
1892.[280] Trump filed a statement of candidacy with the
Federal Election Commission (FEC) on November 15, 2022, and announced
his candidacy in a speech at
Mar-a-Lago the same day.[281][282] Trump is considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, following his
2024 campaign announcement on November 15, 2022.[283] Trump announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, his former vice president
Mike Pence will not be his running mate.[284]
In March 2023, Trump was
indicted over his
hush money payments to adult film actress
Stormy Daniels.[285] Trump was again indicted in June over his handling of classified documents which contained materials sensitive to national security. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges related to these indictments.[286][287]
Florida Governor
Ron DeSantis was seen as the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination; he raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022 and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.[288][289][290]
On May 24, 2023, DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in an online conversation with Twitter CEO
Elon Musk. "American decline is not inevitable—it is a choice...I am running for president of the United States to lead our great American comeback", DeSantis added. His campaign stated to have raised $1 million in the first hour following the announcement of his candidacy.[291] Speaking on Fox & Friends, he stated that he would "destroy leftism" in the United States.[292] At the end of July 2023, FiveThirtyEight's national polling average of the Republican primaries had Trump at 52 percent, and DeSantis at 15.[293]
Following the
Iowa caucuses, in which Trump posted a landslide victory, DeSantis and businessman
Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, leaving the former president and
Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who served in
Trump's cabinet, as the only remaining major candidates.[294][295] Trump continued to win all four early voting contests while Haley's campaign struggled to gain momentum.[296] On March 6, 2024, the day after winning only one primary out of fifteen on
Super Tuesday, Haley suspended her campaign. Trump became the only remaining major candidate for the Republican presidential nomination.[297]
On March 12, 2024, Trump officially became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.[298]
Third-party and independent candidates have also announced presidential runs. They include
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and
Cornel West.
Centrist political organization
No Labels intended to field a third-party "unity ticket", before abandoning their efforts in April 2024.[299] Some established third parties, such as the
American Solidarity Party, the
Prohibition Party, the
Constitution Party, the
Libertarian Party and the
Party for Socialism and Liberation have announced presidential nominees, while the
Green Party, has begun their primaries. While independent/third-party candidates often do better in opinion polls than actual election performance,[8] third-party candidates, as of April 2024, have the strongest showing in polls since
Ross Perot's high poll numbers in the 1990s.[300]
Notable party nominations
The following individuals have been nominated by their respective parties to run for president.
Jill Stein announced on May 26, 2024, that her
campaign had accrued enough delegates to secure the
Green Party nomination and thus became the presumptive nominee.[303][304][305] Stein was the party's candidate back in
2012 and
2016. Stein is a physician and a former member of the
LexingtonTown Meeting. No running mate has yet been announced, with the
2024 Green National Convention to take place from August 15 to 18, 2024.[306] As of June 2024[update], Stein has ballot access both on Green Party and Independent ballot lines in at least 22 states with a total of 273 electoral votes.[307][better source needed]
Cornel West is a socialist activist and intellectual who announced a campaign as an independent after initially announcing a run as a
People's Party and later a
Green Party candidate.[251] His running mate is
Melina Abdullah, an academic and civic leader from California.
0px 2024 independent ticket (with the "Justice For All" party in some states)
Local regression of two-way polling between Trump and Biden conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided)
Local regression of two-way polling between Trump, Biden and Kennedy conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided)
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning the Electoral College electors for that state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:
"tossup": no advantage
"tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
"lean" or "leans": slight advantage
"likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
In April 2022, the
Republican National Committee voted unanimously to withdraw from the
Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD).[347] In May 2024, the Biden campaign proposed holding two debates outside of the CPD schedule and declined to appear at CPD-hosted debates. Both Biden and Trump agreed to a debate hosted by
CNN on June 27 and one hosted by
ABC News on September 10.[348] Trump is not expected to hold mock debates though he has held sessions to hone his policy messaging, while Biden has been preparing for the debate at
Camp David and going through binders.[349]
^
abCalculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^The FiveThirtyEight forecast[337] and Economist[338] each rate only a handful of states as "safe." States rated safe by all other forecasts but FiveThirtyEight and Economist are omitted
^
abcUnlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.
^The boundaries of Nebraska's 2nd congressional district have since changed due to redistricting.
^Nuzzi, Olivia (November 22, 2023).
"The Mind-Bending Politics of RFK Jr". Intelligencer.
Archived from the original on March 6, 2024. Retrieved March 6, 2024. The general election is now projected to be a three-way race between Biden, Trump, and their mutual, Kennedy, with a cluster of less popular third-party candidates filling out the constellation.
^
abBenson, Samuel (November 2, 2023).
"RFK Jr.'s big gamble". Deseret News.
Archived from the original on November 21, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023. Early polls show Kennedy polling in the teens or low 20s
Edsall, Thomas B. (April 12, 2023).
"How The Right Came To Embrace Intrusive Government". The New York Times.
ISSN0362-4331.
Archived from the original on April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023. Republicans in states across the country are defiantly pushing for the criminalization of abortion — of the procedure, of abortifacient drugs and of those who travel out of state to terminate pregnancy... According to research provided to The Times by the Kaiser Family Foundation, states that have abortion bans at various early stages of pregnancy with no exception for rape or incest include Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
^
abcdYourish, Karen; Smart, Charlie (May 24, 2024). "Trump's Pattern of Sowing Election Doubt Intensifies in 2024". The New York Times.
ISSN0362-4331.
Archived from the original on May 25, 2024. Retrieved May 25, 2024. Former President Donald J. Trump has baselessly and publicly cast doubt about the fairness of the 2024 election about once a day, on average, since he announced his candidacy for president, according to an analysis by The New York Times ... Long before announcing his candidacy, Mr. Trump and his supporters had been falsely claiming that President Biden was "weaponizing" the Justice Department to target him.
^Broadwater, Luke (May 21, 2024). "House G.O.P. Moves to Crack Down on Noncitizen Voting, Sowing False Narrative". The New York Times.
ISSN0362-4331.
Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved May 23, 2024. Republicans are pushing legislation to crack down on voting by noncitizens, which happens rarely and is already illegal in federal elections, in a move that reinforces former President Donald J. Trump's efforts to delegitimize the 2024 results if he loses.
^Basu, Zachary (May 22, 2024).
"Trump spreads false "assassination" claims as voters fear violence". Axios.
Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved May 23, 2024. Former President Trump and his allies have already signaled they will not accept the results of the election if they believe it's "unfair," reviving the type of rhetoric that helped incite the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.
^Ibrahim, Nur (December 5, 2022).
"Did Trump Say Election Fraud Allows for 'Termination' of US Constitution?". Snopes.
Archived from the original on May 31, 2023. Retrieved December 9, 2023. In sum, Trump posted on Truth Social that, what he believed to be, election fraud in the 2020 presidential election allows "for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution." For that reason, we rated this claim "Correct Attribution."
^Feuer, Alan; Haberman, Maggie (April 13, 2024).
"Inside Donald Trump's Embrace of the Jan. 6 Rioters". The New York Times.
ISSN0362-4331. Archived from
the original on April 13, 2024. Retrieved April 14, 2024. Recently, however, his celebrations of the Capitol riot and those who took part in it have become more public as he has promoted a revisionist history of the attack and placed it at the heart of his 2024 presidential campaign ... Mr. Trump hasn't always embraced Jan. 6 — at least not openly ... Mr. Trump's embrace of Jan. 6 not only has meant describing the attack in which more than 100 police officers were injured as a "love fest." It also has led him to tell a journalist that he wanted to march to the Capitol that day but that his team had prevented him from doing so.
^Gamio, Lazaro; Yourish, Karen; Haag, Matthew; Bromwich, Jonah E.; Haberman, Maggie; Lai, K.K. Rebecca (May 30, 2024).
"The Trump Manhattan Criminal Verdict, Count By Count". The New York Times.
Archived from the original on May 30, 2024. Retrieved May 30, 2024.
^Levitz, Eric (October 19, 2022).
"How the Diploma Divide Is Remaking American Politics". New York.
Archived from the original on October 20, 2022. Retrieved October 21, 2022. Blue America is an increasingly wealthy and well-educated place. Throughout the second half of the 20th century, Americans without college degrees were more likely than university graduates to vote Democratic. But that gap began narrowing in the late 1960s before finally flipping in 2004... A more educated Democratic coalition is, naturally, a more affluent one... In every presidential election from 1948 to 2012, white voters in the top 5 percent of America's income distribution were more Republican than those in the bottom 95 percent. Now, the opposite is true: Among America's white majority, the rich voted to the left of the middle class and the poor in 2016 and 2020, while the poor voted to the right of the middle class and the rich.
^Munis, Kal; Jacobs, Nicholas (October 20, 2022). "Why Resentful Rural Americans Vote Republican". The Washington Post.
Archived from the original on October 20, 2022. Retrieved October 21, 2022. ...that the disproportionately White, older, more religious, less affluent and less highly educated voters who live in rural areas are more likely to hold socially conservative views generally championed by Republicans. Meanwhile, urban areas are filled with younger, more racially diverse, more highly educated and more affluent people who hold the more socially liberal views generally championed by Democrats.
^Charen, Mona (November 9, 2018).
"Who Votes Republican". RealClearPolitics.com. Real Clear Politics.
Archived from the original on November 16, 2018. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
^Cost, Jay.
"Losing the Suburbs". AEI.com. AEI.
Archived from the original on February 21, 2020. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
Edsall, Thomas B. (April 12, 2023).
"How The Right Came To Embrace Intrusive Government". The New York Times.
ISSN0362-4331.
Archived from the original on April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023. Republicans in states across the country are defiantly pushing for the criminalization of abortion — of the procedure, of abortifacient drugs and of those who travel out of state to terminate pregnancy... According to research provided to The Times by the Kaiser Family Foundation, states that have abortion bans at various early stages of pregnancy with no exception for rape or incest include Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
Edsall, Thomas B. (April 12, 2023).
"How The Right Came To Embrace Intrusive Government". The New York Times.
ISSN0362-4331.
Archived from the original on April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023. Republicans in states across the country are defiantly pushing for the criminalization of abortion — of the procedure, of abortifacient drugs and of those who travel out of state to terminate pregnancy... According to research provided to The Times by the Kaiser Family Foundation, states that have abortion bans at various early stages of pregnancy with no exception for rape or incest include Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
^Leonhardt, David (January 17, 2024).
"A 2024 Vulnerability". The New York Times.
Archived from the original on January 26, 2024. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
^
abcLayne, Nathan; Slattery, Gram; Reid, Tim (April 3, 2024).
"Trump calls migrants 'animals,' intensifying focus on illegal immigration". Reuters.
Archived from the original on June 17, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024. While speaking of Laken Riley - a 22-year-old nursing student from Georgia allegedly murdered by a Venezuelan immigrant in the country illegally - Trump said some immigrants were sub-human. "The Democrats say, 'Please don't call them animals. They're humans.' I said, 'No, they're not humans, they're not humans, they're animals,'" said Trump, president from 2017 to 2021.
^Bordoff, Jason (December 2022).
"America's Landmark Climate Law". International Monetary Fund.
Archived from the original on January 18, 2024. Retrieved January 16, 2024. The Inflation Reduction Act is the most significant piece of climate legislation in the history of the United States.
^Lindsay, James M. (December 1, 2023).
"Campaign Roundup: The Republican Presidential Candidates on Climate Change". Council on Foreign Relations.
Archived from the original on December 12, 2023. Retrieved December 11, 2023. Donald Trump hasn't said how he would approach climate change if he returns to the White House. But during his first term in office, he withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement and regularly ridiculed the idea of man-made climate change.
^Shear, Michael D. (August 10, 2022).
"Biden Signs Bill to Help Veterans Who Were Exposed to Toxic Burn Pits". New York Times.
Archived from the original on January 8, 2024. Retrieved January 7, 2024. The new law, known as the PACT Act, makes it easier for veterans who believe they were exposed to toxins during their service to apply for medical benefits from the Department of Veterans Affairs. The law creates a $280 billion stream of federal funding, making it one of the largest expansions of veterans benefits in American history.
^Benson, Samuel (November 2, 2023).
"RFK Jr.'s big gamble". Deseret News.
Archived from the original on November 2, 2023. Retrieved November 3, 2023. He's shared a number of controversial theories relating to school shootings and COVID-19 vaccines. In more recent interviews, however, he's taken a more measured approach... Early polls show Kennedy polling in the teens or low 20s — a major underdog, but enough to put both major party nominees on edge...
^Silver, Nate (January 28, 2021).
"How Popular Is Joe Biden?". FiveThirtyEight.
Archived from the original on January 28, 2021. Retrieved June 16, 2023.
Oshin, Olafimihan (January 23, 2022).
"Auschwitz Memorial says RFK Jr. speech at anti-vaccine rally exploits Holocaust tragedy". The Hill. Archived from
the original on January 24, 2022. Retrieved January 27, 2022. During a speech at the rally, Kennedy, a conspiracy theorist and prominent anti-vaxxer, warned of a massive surveillance network being created with satellites in space and 5G mobile networks collecting data.
"Cheryl Hines Blasts Husband RFK Jr. for Holocaust Remark". The Wrap. January 25, 2022. Archived from
the original on January 25, 2022. Retrieved January 27, 2022. Cheryl Hines has publicly condemned a statement made by her husband Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at a rally on Sunday, in which the environmental lawyer and conspiracy theorist likened COVID regulations to the Holocaust.
"Guests urged to be vaccinated at anti-vaxxer Robert F Kennedy Jr's party". The Guardian. December 18, 2021. Archived from
the original on December 18, 2021. Retrieved January 27, 2022. The younger Kennedy has campaigned on environmental issues but is also a leading vaccines conspiracy theorist and activist against shots including those approved to combat Covid-19, which has killed more than 805,000 in the US and more than 5.3 million worldwide.
"Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s Conspiracy Theories Go Beyond Vaccines". The New York Times. July 6, 2023.
Archived from the original on October 11, 2023. Retrieved October 12, 2023. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an environmental lawyer, is a leading vaccine skeptic and purveyor of conspiracy theories who has leaned heavily on misinformation as he mounts his long-shot 2024 campaign for the Democratic nomination.