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2020 United States presidential election in New York

←  2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout69.7% Increase 2.4%
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families Conservative
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 29 0
Popular vote 5,244,886 3,251,997
Percentage 60.87% 37.74%


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in New York was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. [1] New York voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. [2] New York had 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College. [3] Trump announced that Florida would be his home state for this election, rather than New York as it had been previously. [4] This was the first presidential election in New York to allow no-excuse absentee voting. [5]

New York continued its streak as a solidly blue state. Biden's victory came from overwhelming strength with Black and Hispanic voters, especially those from New York City, [6] as well as strong support throughout the state, particularly in suburban areas such as Westchester and Nassau counties, from college-educated, suburban, Hispanic, Asian, and Multiracial voters.

New York voted 19% more Democratic than the national average. This was the first time since 1992 that Orange, Oswego, Washington, Madison, and Warren counties voted for the losing presidential candidate, as well as the first since 1976 that a Democrat won without Cayuga, Cortland, Otsego, Seneca, Franklin, Niagara, and St. Lawrence counties, and the first since 1960 that a Democrat won without Sullivan County.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 28, New York State elections officials moved the primary date to June 23 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic. [7]

Canceled Republican primary

On March 3, 2020, the New York Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses. Donald Trump was the only Republican candidate to submit the required number of names of his 162 total delegates, both the 94 primary ones and the alternates. Among Trump's major challengers, Bill Weld only submitted about half of his required delegates, and neither Rocky De La Fuente nor Joe Walsh sent in any names at all. With the cancellation, Trump was automatically able to send his 94 New York pledged delegates to the national convention. [8] [9]

Democratic primary

On April 27, 2020, New York State elections officials had decided to cancel the state's Democratic primary altogether, citing the fact that former Vice President Joe Biden was the only major candidate left in the race after all the others had suspended their campaigns, and canceling it would save the state millions of dollars from printing the extra sheet on the ballot. [10] However, on May 5, a federal judge ruled that the Democratic primary must proceed on June 23 after a suit made by former presidential primary candidate Andrew Yang. [11]

Among the other major candidates were entrepreneur Andrew Yang, Kirsten Gillibrand, one of New York's two current senators, and Bill de Blasio, the mayor of New York City. However, on August 29, 2019, Gillibrand dropped out of the race. Bill de Blasio as well dropped out on September 20, 2019, after failing to qualify for the fourth Democratic debate.

Results
2020 New York Democratic presidential primary [12]
Candidate Votes % Delegates [13]
Joe Biden 1,136,679 64.62 230
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 285,908 16.25 44
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 82,917 4.71
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 39,433 2.24
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 22,927 1.30
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 22,686 1.29
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 11,028 0.63
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 9,083 0.52
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 3,040 0.17
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 2,932 0.17
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 2,299 0.13
Blank ballots / Void ballots [a]140,107 7.96
Total 1,759,039 100% 274

Conservative

The Conservative Party of New York State cross-endorsed the Republican ticket, nominating Donald Trump for president and Mike Pence for vice president. [14]

Working Families

The Working Families Party cross-endorsed the Democratic ticket, nominating Joe Biden for president and Kamala Harris for vice president. [15] Several prominent Democrats, including Senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer encouraged voting for Biden and Harris on the WFP line, in order for the party to keep ballot access. [16]

Green

The Green Party of New York nominated the national Green Party ticket; Howie Hawkins for president and Angela Nicole Walker for vice president.

Libertarian primary

2020 New York Libertarian presidential primary

April 28, 2020 2024 →
←  CT
NE →
 
Candidate Jacob Hornberger
Home state Virginia
Delegate count 27
Popular vote Default winner

Future of Freedom Foundation Founder Jacob Hornberger was the sole candidate to qualify for the New York primary ballot. Therefore, in accordance with state law, he was declared the winner of the primary by default. As the winner of the primary, Libertarian Party of New York rules permitted Hornberger to choose 27 of the state's 48 unbound delegates to the 2020 Libertarian National Convention. The Libertarian Party of New York was the only Libertarian state affiliate to choose any of its delegates on the basis of its presidential primary or caucus. [17]

Independence

The Independence Party of New York nominated independent candidates Brock Pierce for president and Karla Ballard for vice president. [18]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report [19] Safe D November 3, 2020
Inside Elections [20] Safe D November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [21] Safe D November 3, 2020
Politico [22] Safe D November 3, 2020
RCP [23] Safe D November 3, 2020
Niskanen [24] Safe D November 3, 2020
CNN [25] Safe D November 3, 2020
The Economist [26] Safe D November 3, 2020
CBS News [27] Likely D November 3, 2020
270towin [28] Safe D November 3, 2020
ABC News [29] Safe D November 3, 2020
NPR [30] Likely D November 3, 2020
NBC News [31] Safe D November 3, 2020
538 [32] Safe D November 3, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[b]
Margin
Real Clear Politics April 30 – September 29, 2020 November 3, 2020 59.7% 31.0% 9.3% Biden +28.7
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 62.3% 32.9% 4.8% Biden +29.4
Average 61.0% 32.0% 7.1% Biden +29.1

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 6,548 (LV) ± 2% 35% [d] 63%
Research Co. Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 34% 64% - - 2% [e] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 10,220 (LV) 34% 63% - -
Swayable Oct 23–26, 2020 495 (LV) ± 5.8% 33% 65% 1% 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 10,007 (LV) 34% 64% - - 2%
Siena College[ permanent dead link] Sep 27–29, 2020 504 (LV) ± 4.4% 29% 61% 0% 1% 2% [f] 7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 9,969 (LV) 34% 64% - - 2%
Public Policy Polling Aug 20–22, 2020 1,029 (V) ± 3.1% 32% 63% - - 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 10,280 (LV) 34% 63% - - 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 4,555 (LV) 33% 65% - - 2%
Siena College Jun 23–25, 2020 806 (RV) ± 3.9% 32% 57% - - 10%
Siena College May 17–21, 2020 767 (RV) ± 3.7% 32% 57% - - 11%
Quinnipiac University Apr 30 – May 4, 2020 915 (RV) ± 3.2% 32% 55% - - 5% [g] 8%
Siena College Apr 19–23, 2020 803 (RV) ± 3.7% 29% 65% - - 6%
Siena College Mar 22–26, 2020 566 (RV) ± 4.5% 33% 58% - - 10%
Siena College Feb 16–20, 2020 658 (RV) ± 4.5% 36% 55% - - 5%
Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Other Undecided
Siena College Feb 16–20, 2020 658 (RV) ± 4.5% 33% 58% 9%

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Other Undecided
Siena College Feb 16–20, 2020 658 (RV) ± 4.5% 37% 56% 7%

with Donald Trump and Bill de Blasio

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bill
de Blasio (D)
Other Undecided
Siena College Jun 2–6, 2019 812 (RV) ± 4.1% 36% 48% 13% 3%

with Donald Trump and Kirsten Gillibrand

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)
Other Undecided
Siena College Jun 2–6, 2019 812 (RV) ± 4.1% 34% 58% 5% 3%

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Other Undecided
Siena College Feb 16–20, 2020 658 (RV) ± 4.5% 37% 53% 10%

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
Siena College Feb 16–20, 2020 658 (RV) ± 4.5% 38% 56% 7%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
Siena College Feb 16–20, 2020 658 (RV) ± 4.5% 39% 53% 8%

Electoral slates

These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state: [33]

Joe Biden and
Kamala Harris
Democratic Party
Working Families Party
Donald Trump and
Mike Pence
Republican Party
Conservative Party
Jo Jorgensen and
Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party
Howie Hawkins and
Angela Walker
Green Party
Brock Pierce and
Karla Ballard
Independence Party
June O'Neill
Xiao Wang
Katherine M. Sheehan
Thomas J. Garry
Lovely Warren
Gary S. LaBarbera
Stuart H. Applebaum
Mary Sullivan
George K. Gresham
Randi Weingarten
Mario F. Cilento
Alphonso David
Hazel Nell Dukes
Christine Quinn
Byron Brown
Corey Johnson
Scott Stringer
Andrea Stewart-Cousins
Carl Heastie
Jay Jacobs
Letitia James
Thomas DiNapoli
Kathy Hochul
Andrew Cuomo
Hillary Clinton
Bill Clinton
Rubén Díaz Jr.
Judith Hunter
Anastasia Somoza
Brendan Lantry
Jesus Garcia
Susan McNeil
Joseph Cairo
William Napier
Karl Simmeth
Christine Benedict
Joann Ariola
Carl Zeilman
Jennifer Saul Rich
Charlie Joyce
Adrian Anderson
Rob Ortt
Will Barclay
John Burnett
Chloe Sun
Elie Hirschfeld
Yechezkel Moskowitz
Shaun Marie Levine
Christopher Kendall
Francis Vella-Marrone
Andrea Catsimatidis
John Gereau
Rodney Strange
Todd Rouse
Trisha Turner
Robert Keis
Nick Langworthy
Tom Dadey
Daniel P. Donnelly
Duane J. Whitmer
Robert M. Arrigo
Mark N. Axinn
Erin M. Becker
Rachel E. Becker
Richard Bell
Kari R. Bittner
Mark S. Braiman
Jay A. Carr
Tucker C. Coburn
Anthony D'Orazio
Kevin A. Wilson
Milva E. Dordal
Pietro S. Geraci
Paul M. Grindle
Mark E. Glogowski
Shawn Hannon
Andrew M. Kolstee
Peyton D. Kunselman
Brandon G. Lyon
Leonard E. Morlock
Lora L. Newell
Gary Popkin
Thomas D. Quiter
Ilya Schwartzburg
Paul C. Sechrist
Larry Sharpe
William C. Anderson
Stephen Bloom
Peter A. Lavenia
Cassandra J. Lems
Paul W. Gilman
Darin Robbins
Barbara A. Kidney
Joseph R. Naham
Michael E. O'Neil
Eric M. Jones
Carol S. Przybylak
Tatianna M. Moragne
James R. Brown III
James McCabe
Candace Carponter
Michael D. Emperor
Jennifer R. White
Allan D. Hunter
Mary B. House
Serena L. Seals
David Sutliff-Atias
Craig A. Seeman
Daneilla Liebling
Adrienne R. Craig-Williams
Christopher J. Archer
Claudia Flanagan
Gil Obler
Debra A. Rosario
Gloria Mattera
David L. Giannascoli
Kenneth Bayne
Scott R. Major
Robert G. Pilnick
Barbara Pilnick
Gary P. Newman
Arthur Abbate
Joseph W. Fuller
Maryann H. Major
Andrew J. Bogardt
Anna C. Bogardt
Robert J. Bogardt
Trisha L. Sterling
Thomas Hatfield
Thomas A. Connolly
Atef S. Zeina
Lee Kolesnikoff
Joseph L. Baruth
Paul E. Caputo
Edward G. Miller
Thomas S. Connolly
Dennis R. Zack
Michael Amo
Richard S. Bellando
Maryellen Bellando
William Bogardt
Teresa Bogardt
Frank M. MacKay
Kristin A. MacKay
Carolyn P. Major

Results

2020 United States presidential election in New York [34]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
4,858,273 56.38% −0.34%
Working Families Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
386,613 4.48% +2.65%
Total Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
5,244,886 60.87% +1.85%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
2,955,662 34.30% +1.57%
Conservative Donald Trump
Mike Pence
296,335 3.43% −0.35%
Total Donald Trump
Mike Pence
3,251,997 37.73% +1.21%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
60,383 0.70% −0.05%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
32,832 0.38% −1.02%
Independence Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard
22,656 0.26% −1.29%
Write-in 4,107 0.04% -0.75%
Total votes 8,616,861 100.00% +11.60%

New York City results

2020 presidential election in New York City Manhattan The Bronx Brooklyn Queens Staten Island Total
Democratic-
Working Families
Joe Biden 603,040 355,374 703,310 569,038 90,997 2,321,759 76.2%
86.4% 83.3% 76.8% 72.0% 42.0%
Republican-
Conservative
Donald Trump 85,185 67,740 202,772 212,665 123,320 691,682 22.7%
12.2% 15.9% 22.1% 26.9% 56.9%
Others Others 9,588 3,579 9,927 8,278 2,450 33,822 1.1%
1.4% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
Total 697,813 426,693 916,009 789,981 216,767 3,047,263 100.00%

By New York City council district

2020 presidential election New York city council map

Biden won 47 of 51 city council districts, including one held by a Republican, while Trump won four of 51 city council districts, including two held by Democrats. [35]

District Biden Trump City council member
1st 83.5% 14.9% Margaret Chin
2nd 86.9% 11.7% Carlina Rivera
3rd 87.8% 10.7% Corey Johnson
4th 80.4% 18.0% Keith Powers
5th 82.5% 16.0% Ben Kallos
6th 88.5% 10.2% Helen Rosenthal
7th 89.8% 9.0% Mark Levine
8th 87.5% 11.5% Diana Ayala
9th 93.4% 5.5% Bill Perkins
10th 84.5% 14.3% Ydanis Rodriguez
11th 79.4% 19.3% Andrew Cohen
12th 92.2% 7.2% Andy King
13th 64.7% 34.2% Mark Gjonaj
14th 83.3% 16.0% Fernando Cabrera
15th 84.8% 14.3% Ritchie Torres
16th 87.2% 12.1% Vanessa Gibson
17th 87.1% 12.2% Rafael Salamanca
18th 86.7% 12.6% Rubén Díaz Sr.
19th 54.4% 44.3% Paul Vallone
20th 63.7% 35.2% Peter Koo
21st 77.5% 21.7% Francisco Moya
22nd 75.3% 23.2% Costa Constantinides
23rd 69.5% 29.4% Barry Grodenchik
24th 67.3% 31.7% Rory Lancman
25th 73.8% 25.1% Daniel Dromm
26th 80.0% 18.6% Jimmy Van Bramer
27th 93.1% 6.3% Daneek Miller
28th 86.5% 12.9% Adrienne Adams
29th 65.7% 33.1% Karen Koslowitz
30th 54.4% 44.3% Robert Holden
31st 87.4% 11.9% Donovan Richards
32nd 57.4% 41.6% Eric Ulrich
33rd 78.8% 20.0% Stephen Levin
34th 86.5% 12.0% Antonio Reynoso
35th 91.5% 7.4% Laurie Cumbo
36th 94.6% 4.1% Robert Cornegy
37th 87.1% 11.7% Darma Diaz
38th 76.5% 22.1% Carlos Menchaca
39th 84.7% 14.1% Brad Lander
40th 91.9% 7.1% Mathieu Eugene
41st 94.3% 5.0% Alicka Ampry-Samuel
42nd 92.9% 6.6% Inez Barron
43rd 57.0% 41.4% Justin Brannan
44th 25.1% 74.0% Kalman Yeger
45th 82.0% 17.2% Farah Louis
46th 75.3% 23.8% Alan Maisel
47th 50.2% 48.8% Ari Kagan
48th 33.8% 65.1% Chaim Deutsch
49th 67.0% 31.7% Debi Rose
50th 36.8% 62.0% Steven Matteo
51st 27.2% 71.8% Joe Borelli

By county

County Joe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Albany 99,474 64.55% 51,081 33.15% 3,546 2.30% 48,393 31.40% 154,101
Allegany 6,048 29.10% 14,135 68.02% 599 2.88% -8,087 -38.92% 20,782
Bronx 355,374 83.29% 67,740 15.88% 3,579 0.83% 287,634 67.41% 426,693
Broome 47,002 50.53% 43,791 47.08% 2,223 2.39% 3,211 3.45% 93,016
Cattaraugus 11,879 34.17% 22,155 63.74% 726 2.09% -10,276 -29.57% 34,760
Cayuga 16,359 44.44% 19,632 53.33% 818 2.23% -3,273 -8.89% 36,809
Chautauqua 23,088 38.93% 34,853 58.77% 1,364 2.30% -11,765 -19.84% 59,305
Chemung 16,636 42.21% 21,922 55.63% 852 2.16% -5,286 -13.42% 39,410
Chenango 8,300 37.14% 13,496 60.38% 554 2.48% -5,196 -23.24% 22,350
Clinton 18,364 51.82% 16,514 46.60% 559 1.58% 1,850 5.22% 35,437
Columbia 20,386 57.25% 14,464 40.62% 760 2.13% 5,922 16.63% 35,610
Cortland 10,370 47.83% 10,789 49.77% 520 2.40% -419 -1.94% 21,679
Delaware 9,143 39.71% 13,387 58.14% 495 2.15% -4,244 -18.43% 23,025
Dutchess 81,443 53.89% 66,872 44.25% 2,807 1.86% 14,571 9.64% 151,122
Erie 267,270 56.46% 197,552 41.73% 8,596 1.81% 69,718 14.73% 473,418
Essex 9,950 51.61% 8,982 46.59% 348 1.80% 968 5.02% 19,280
Franklin 9,253 48.02% 9,668 50.18% 347 1.80% -415 -2.16% 19,268
Fulton 7,931 33.44% 15,378 64.84% 409 1.72% -7,447 -31.40% 23,718
Genesee 9,625 32.94% 18,876 64.61% 716 2.45% -9,251 -31.67% 29,217
Greene 10,346 41.07% 14,271 56.64% 577 2.29% -3,925 -15.57% 25,194
Hamilton 1,178 34.05% 2,225 64.31% 57 1.64% -1,047 -30.26% 3,460
Herkimer 9,939 33.90% 18,871 64.36% 512 1.74% -8,932 -30.46% 29,322
Jefferson 17,307 39.46% 25,629 58.44% 919 2.10% -8,322 -18.98% 43,855
Kings 703,310 76.78% 202,772 22.14% 9,927 1.08% 500,538 54.64% 916,009
Lewis 3,823 29.49% 8,890 68.57% 251 1.94% -5,067 -39.08% 12,964
Livingston 12,477 39.73% 18,182 57.90% 742 2.37% -5,705 -18.17% 31,401
Madison 14,805 43.50% 18,409 54.09% 821 2.41% -3,604 -10.59% 34,035
Monroe 225,746 59.25% 145,661 38.23% 9,582 2.52% 80,085 21.02% 380,989
Montgomery 7,977 37.69% 12,745 60.22% 442 2.09% -4,768 -22.53% 21,164
Nassau 396,504 54.11% 326,716 44.59% 9,536 1.30% 69,788 9.52% 732,756
New York 603,040 86.42% 85,185 12.21% 9,588 1.37% 517,855 74.21% 697,813
Niagara 46,029 44.21% 56,068 53.85% 2,026 1.94% -10,039 -9.64% 104,123
Oneida 41,973 41.15% 57,860 56.73% 2,163 2.12% -15,887 -15.58% 101,996
Onondaga 138,991 58.88% 91,715 38.85% 5,362 2.27% 47,276 20.03% 236,068
Ontario 28,749 48.48% 28,782 48.54% 1,769 2.98% -33 -0.06% 59,300
Orange 84,955 49.24% 85,068 49.30% 2,516 1.46% -113 -0.06% 172,539
Orleans 5,587 30.78% 12,126 66.80% 441 2.42% -6,539 -36.02% 18,154
Oswego 21,145 38.80% 32,142 58.98% 1,211 2.22% -10,997 -20.18% 54,498
Otsego 12,975 46.21% 14,382 51.22% 723 2.57% -1,407 -5.01% 28,080
Putnam 24,955 45.27% 29,283 53.12% 884 1.61% -4,328 -7.85% 55,122
Queens 569,038 72.03% 212,665 26.92% 8,278 1.05% 356,373 45.11% 789,981
Rensselaer 40,969 51.59% 36,500 45.96% 1,940 2.45% 4,469 5.63% 79,409
Richmond 90,997 41.98% 123,320 56.89% 2,450 1.13% -32,323 -14.91% 216,767
Rockland 75,802 50.30% 73,186 48.56% 1,714 1.14% 2,616 1.74% 150,702
Saratoga 68,471 51.62% 61,305 46.21% 2,879 2.17% 7,166 5.41% 132,655
Schenectady 42,465 56.58% 30,741 40.96% 1,841 2.46% 11,724 15.62% 75,047
Schoharie 5,345 34.02% 9,903 63.04% 462 2.94% -4,558 -29.02% 15,710
Schuyler 3,903 39.97% 5,621 57.56% 242 2.47% -1,718 -17.59% 9,766
Seneca 6,914 44.23% 8,329 53.28% 389 2.49% -1,415 -9.05% 15,632
St. Lawrence 19,361 43.11% 24,608 54.80% 938 2.09% -5,247 -11.69% 44,907
Steuben 15,790 34.19% 29,474 63.83% 915 1.98% -13,684 -29.64% 46,179
Suffolk 381,021 49.27% 381,253 49.30% 11,013 1.43% -232 -0.03% 773,287
Sullivan 15,489 44.71% 18,665 53.87% 493 1.42% -3,176 -9.16% 34,647
Tioga 9,634 38.48% 14,791 59.08% 611 2.44% -5,157 -20.60% 25,036
Tompkins 33,619 73.51% 11,096 24.26% 1,020 2.23% 22,523 49.25% 45,735
Ulster 57,970 59.51% 37,590 38.59% 1,860 1.90% 20,380 20.92% 97,420
Warren 17,642 48.80% 17,699 48.96% 808 2.24% -57 -0.16% 36,149
Washington 11,565 41.10% 15,941 56.65% 632 2.25% -4,376 -15.55% 28,138
Wayne 17,456 39.03% 26,204 58.59% 1,067 2.38% -8,748 -19.56% 44,727
Westchester 312,437 67.57% 144,731 31.30% 5,196 1.13% 167,706 36.27% 462,364
Wyoming 5,073 26.11% 13,898 71.52% 461 2.37% -8,825 -45.41% 19,432
Yates 4,219 39.35% 6,208 57.89% 296 2.76% -1,989 -18.54% 10,723
Totals 5,244,886 60.76% 3,251,997 37.67% 135,372 1.57% 1,992,889 23.09% 8,632,255
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Biden won 20 of 27 congressional districts, including one held by a Republican. [36]

District Biden Trump Representative
1st 47.3% 51.5% Lee Zeldin
2nd 47.4% 51.4% Andrew Garbarino
3rd 54.7% 44.3% Thomas Suozzi
4th 55.6% 43.4% Kathleen Rice
5th 83.3% 16.2% Gregory Meeks
6th 61.8% 37.4% Grace Meng
7th 81.9% 17.3% Nydia Velázquez
8th 82.9% 16.5% Hakeem Jeffries
9th 81.4% 17.8% Yvette Clarke
10th 76.1% 22.9% Jerry Nadler
11th 44.3% 54.8% Nicole Malliotakis
12th 84.1% 14.8% Carolyn Maloney
13th 88.2% 11.1% Adriano Espaillat
14th 73.7% 25.9% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
15th 86.4% 13% Ritchie Torres
16th 75.3% 23.8% Jamaal Bowman
17th 59.6% 39.4% Mondaire Jones
18th 51.8% 46.8% Sean Patrick Maloney
19th 49.8% 48.3% Antonio Delgado
20th 59.3% 38.7% Paul Tonko
21st 43.8% 54.2% Elise Stefanik
22nd 43.2% 54.7% Claudia Tenney
23rd 43.3% 54.5% Tom Reed
24th 53.4% 44.4% John Katko
25th 60.1% 37.8% Joe Morelle
26th 62.6% 35.6% Brian Higgins
27th 41.1% 56.8% Chris Jacobs

Analysis

Waiting in line for early voting

New York continued its streak as a solidly blue state, with Biden winning 60.87% of the vote to Trump's 37.74%, a Democratic victory margin of 23.13%. Due to a decrease in third-party voting, both candidates increased their party's vote share from 2016, though Biden's margin of victory was slightly wider than Hillary Clinton's.

New York's inexperience processing a large number of mail ballots, having only legalized no-excuse absentee voting in 2019, [5] [37] led to weekslong delays in counting them. [38] Over two million ballots and over 20% of the votes were cast by mail. [39] New York failed to meet its November 28 deadline to certify the election, with hundreds of thousands of votes still uncounted. [40] State Senator Michael Gianaris commented, "if we were a swing state in this presidential election, this would be a national scandal". [38] New York's voting tabulation was updated on March 15, 2021.

The delay in the counting of mail-in ballots wrongly made it seem at first that Biden had underperformed Hillary Clinton in 2016, a phenomenon referred to as a " red mirage." [41] However, when all the votes were counted, Biden outperformed Clinton's margin over Trump by about 0.6 percentage points. This was due to a major improvement across Upstate New York and on Long Island. Meanwhile, four of New York City's five boroughs shifted towards Trump (with the exception of Staten Island).

Donald Trump is the first Republican to receive 3 million or more raw votes in New York since George H. W. Bush in 1988.

Biden flipped four counties that Trump won in 2016: Broome, Essex, Rensselaer, and Saratoga. [42] [43] Biden also came very close to flipping an additional six counties, as he lost Cortland County by 419 votes, Franklin County by 415 votes, Ontario County by 33 votes, Orange County by 113 votes, Suffolk County by 232 votes, and Warren County by just 57 votes. [44] Trump's narrow victories in these counties meant that they were decided by a combined total of just 1,269 votes out of more than 1 million votes cast across all six counties. According to exit polls by CNN, Biden won 96% of Democrats, who were 41% of the electorate, 59% of Independents, who made up 32% of voters, and 21% of Republicans, who made up 27% of the vote. [45]

Biden dominated core Democratic constituencies in New York City, winning 76% of the city's vote. [46] Statewide, Biden won 94% of Black voters and 76% of Latino voters. [46] Biden won the upstate of New York (excluding New York City's results), albeit by a much smaller 52.4% to 45.9% margin, or 2,923,127 votes to Trump's 2,561,315. In urban Dominican neighborhoods, Trump reached only 15% of the vote to Biden's 85%. [47] Biden also won by 18 points in the Hudson Valley and urban Upstate counties. Trump's core support base came from rural Upstate counties. However, Trump made strong inroads with Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods of New York City [48] [49] and in Hasidic Jewish communities in Rockland County. [50] The shift is attributed to Trump's strong pro-Israel stance as president. [48] New York was one of five states in the nation in which Biden's victory margin was larger than 1 million raw votes, the others being California, Maryland, Massachusetts and Illinois.

Edison exit polls

2020 presidential election in New York by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling) [51] [52]
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump % of

total vote

Total vote 60.87 37.74 100
Ideology
Liberals 86 13 33
Moderates 63 35 44
Conservatives 21 79 23
Party
Democrats 97 3 39
Republicans 18 81 30
Independents 57 40 31
Gender
Men 60 39 48
Women 62 37 52
Race/ethnicity
White 50 48 60
Black 94 6 12
Latino 76 22 16
Asian 8
Other 4
Age
18–29 years old 65 33 17
30–39 years old 64 33 14
40–49 years old 68 29 20
50–64 years old 57 43 30
65 and older 51 47 19
Sexual orientation
LGBT 4
Not LGBT 60 37 96
Education
High school or less 49 51 16
Some college education 65 33 21
Associate's degree 37 61 15
Bachelor's degree 70 29 24
Postgraduate degree 71 26 23
Region
New York City 76 22 36
Long Island 17
Hudson Valley 58 40 17
Urban Upstate 58 41 15
Rural Upstate 46 53 15
Area type
Urban 73 26 48
Suburban 50 49 44
Rural 8

See also

Notes

  1. ^ 135,486 blank and 4,621 void ballots
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  6. ^ Pierce (I) with 2%, "someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 2%

References

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Further reading