From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana, at-large district
County results
Precinct results Rosendale: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%Williams: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%Tie: 50% No data
The 2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the
U.S. representative from
Montana's at-large congressional district . The election coincided with the
2020 U.S. presidential election , as well as
other elections to the House of Representatives,
elections to the
United States Senate and various
state and local elections .
The incumbent,
Republican
Greg Gianforte , who was reelected with 50.9% of the vote in
2018 ,
[1] declined to run for reelection and instead
ran successfully for
Governor of Montana , after having lost the
2016 election to incumbent Democrat
Steve Bullock .
[2]
As the
Green Party was removed from the ballot, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no non-Republican or Democratic candidates running for either
United States House of Representatives or
United States Senate in Montana.
[3]
In the general election, Republican
state auditor
Matt Rosendale defeated former state representative
Kathleen Williams .
As of a result of the
2020 redistricting cycle , Montana regained its
2nd congressional district that it lost in 1993, therefore making the 2020 election the last election for the at-large district before it was eliminated.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined
Endorsements
Matt Rosendale
Executive Officials
Individuals
Organizations
Polling
Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.
Results
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrew
Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran (endorsed Williams)
[19]
Declined
Endorsements
Kathleen Williams
State politicians
Dick Barrett ,
State Representative
Emma Kerr-Carpenter,
State Representative
Willis Curdy ,
State Representative
Ann Mary Dussault , former
state representative and former House Majority Leader
Jen Gross ,
State Senator
Tom Jacobson,
State Senator
Jessica Karjala ,
State Representative
Kathy Kelker,
State Representative
Jasmine Krotkov,
State Representative
Margaret McDonald ,
state senator , Senate Minority Whip, and former
state representative
Mary McNally ,
State Senator
Diane Sands ,
state senator and former
state representative
Local politicians
Individuals
Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran and former 2020 candidate for U.S. House of Representatives from Montana's at-large district
[19]
Local unions
Organizations
Tom Winter
Individuals
Organizations
Polling
Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.
Results
Other candidates
Green Party
Disqualified
John Gibney, anti-immigration activist
[32]
[33]
Results
General election
Predictions
Polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
[a]
Margin of error
Matt Rosendale (R)
Kathleen Williams (D)
Other / Undecided
Montana State University Billings
October 19–24, 2020
546 (LV)
± 4.2%
47%
46%
6%
[b]
Siena College/NYT Upshot
October 18–20, 2020
758 (LV)
± 4.4%
50%
46%
4%
[c]
Strategies 360
October 15–20, 2020
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
46%
46%
9%
[d]
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ
Archived October 26, 2020, at the
Wayback Machine
October 15–18, 2020
800 (LV)
± 3.5%
47%
[e]
47%
6%
[f]
45%
[g]
49%
6%
[h]
49%
[i]
45%
6%
[j]
Montana State University Bozeman
Archived October 19, 2020, at the
Wayback Machine
September 14 – October 2, 2020
1,609 (LV)
± 3.9%
48%
46%
6%
[k]
Siena College/NYT Upshot
September 14–16, 2020
625 (LV)
± 4.8%
41%
44%
13%
[l]
Expedition Strategies (D)
Archived September 2, 2020, at the
Wayback Machine
[B]
August 22–27, 2020
400 (LV)
± 4.9%
48%
51%
1%
[m]
WPA Intelligence (R)
[A]
August 9–11, 2020
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
51%
45%
4%
[n]
Civiqs/Daily Kos
July 11–13, 2020
873 (RV)
± 4.2%
49%
47%
5%
[o]
Public Policy Polling
July 9–10, 2020
1,224 (V)
± 2.8%
44%
44%
13%
[p]
Global Strategy Group (D)
[C]
June 24–28, 2020
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
47%
47%
6%
University of Montana
June 17–26, 2020
517 (RV)
± 4.3%
45%
37%
18%
[q]
Public Policy Polling
[D]
March 12–13, 2020
903 (V)
± 3.3%
45%
45%
9%
Hypothetical polling
University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.
with Joe Dooling (R), John Evankovich (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D)
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
[a]
Margin of error
Matt Rosendale (R)
Corey Stapleton (R)
Kathleen Williams (D)
Other
University of Montana
February 12–22, 2020
498 (LV)
± 4.4%
35.7%
19.4%
35.8%
9.1%
[r]
with Joe Dooling (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Matt Rains (D), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D)
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
[a]
Margin of error
Matt Rosendale (R)
Corey Stapleton (R)
Kathleen Williams (D)
Other
University of Montana
September 26 – October 3, 2019
303 (RV)
± 5.6%
35.3%
19.8%
36.1%
8.8%
[s]
Results
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Notes
^
a
b
c
d
e Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
^ Undecided with 6%
^ Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
^ Undecided with 9%
^ Standard VI response
^ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
^ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
^ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
^ "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
^ Gibney (G) with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
^ Undecided with 1%
^ Undecided with 4%
^ Undecided with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
^ Undecided with 13%
^ Undecided with 18.4%
^ Dooling (R) with 2.9%; Winter (D) with 2.7%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%; Evankovich (R) with 1.7%
^ Dooling (R) with 2.5%; Rains (D) with 2.4%; Winter (D) with 2.1%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%
Partisan clients
^
a
b Poll sponsored by
Club for Growth Action
^ Poll conducted for The House Majority PAC, which endorsed Williams prior to this poll's sampling period.
^ Poll sponsored by Kathleen Williams' campaign
^ Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, which has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates
References
^ Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally (November 7, 2018).
"2018 House Popular Vote Tracker" . Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 28, 2019 .
^
a
b Michels, Holly K. (June 6, 2019).
"Gianforte files to run for governor in 2020" . Independent Record . Retrieved June 7, 2019 .
^
"No Alternative Candidates on Montana Ballot for Any Congressional Race" .
Ballot Access News . September 13, 2020.
Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved September 13, 2020 .
^ Pathé, Simone (June 17, 2019).
"On heels of Senate loss, Matt Rosendale running for Congress — again" . Roll Call. Retrieved June 17, 2019 .
^ Alexander, Cassidy (June 25, 2019).
"Helena Rancher Joins Race For Montana's House Seat" . MTPR. Retrieved June 26, 2019 .
^
a
b Dennison, Mike (March 2, 2020).
"Dillon veteran a surprise candidate in U.S. House race" . KTVH .
^ Drake, Phil.
"Lamm enters 2020 race for U.S. House seat" . Great Falls Tribune . Retrieved September 9, 2019 .
^ Drake, Phil (June 15, 2019).
"Stapleton announces run for U.S. House seat" . Great Falls Tribune . Retrieved June 15, 2019 .
^ Dennison, Mike (March 20, 2019).
"Montana 2020: Gianforte gubernatorial run would have 'domino effect' on statewide races" . KRTV. Retrieved March 21, 2019 .
^ Pogreba, Don (January 9, 2019).
"2020 Updates: Daines Tells Tim Fox to Shove Off, He's Supporting Gianforte for Governor. And Denny Rehberg is Eyeing a Comeback!" . The Montana Post. Archived from
the original on March 1, 2019. Retrieved February 28, 2019 .
^ Trump, Donald J. [@realDonaldTrump] (February 12, 2020).
".@MattForMontana Rosendale is a Strong & Conservative fighter for Montana. Matt stands w/ our Brave Veterans, Loves our Military, and he will continue working to Secure our Border. Matt will NEVER let our #2A go unprotected. Matt has my Total Endorsement!" (
Tweet ). Retrieved November 23, 2022 – via
Twitter .
^ Trump, Donald Jr.
"Montana's A-Team: Daines, Rosendale, Gianforte" . missoulian.com . Retrieved December 22, 2019 .
^
"Mark Levin Audio Rewind - 10/12/20" . Apple Podcasts . Retrieved October 12, 2020 .
^
"Matt Rosendale (MT-AL)" . Club for Growth . Retrieved February 29, 2020 .
^
"Crow Tribal Chairman endorses Trump campaign" . Ict News . September 15, 2020. Retrieved September 29, 2020 .
^
a
b
c
"2020 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF) .
Montana Secretary of State . Retrieved June 2, 2020 .
^
"Williams launches new bid for Montana US House seat" . KECI. Associated Press. April 5, 2019. Retrieved April 5, 2019 .
^ Michels, Holly K. (April 2, 2019).
"Missoula state Rep. Tom Winter announces bid for U.S. House" . Helena Independent Record . Retrieved April 2, 2019 .
^
a
b Drake, Phil (January 21, 2020).
"Rains drops from U.S. House race, seeks state seat, endorses Kathleen Williams" . Great Falls Tribune . Retrieved January 21, 2020 .
^ Hanson, Amy Beth (May 13, 2019).
"Mayor who was refugee from Liberia announces run for Senate" . Associated Press . Retrieved May 13, 2019 .
^
"Thank you, @AFSCME Montana Council 9!" . Twitter . April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 9, 2020 .
^
"Teamsters Local 190 Endorse Kathleen Williams for U.S. Congress" . MT People's Voice . April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020 .
^
"MFPE Endorses Kathleen Williams For Congress" . MFPE . April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 7, 2020 .
^ Dems, New (July 31, 2020).
"ENDORSEMENT ALERT: A year ago, we launched our Frontier program to back bold, pragmatic Democrats who can flip even more seats blue. #NewDems have played a key part in expanding the House battlefield & now we're doubling down & supporting 10 more amazing candidates" .
^
Marianne Williamson [@marwilliamson] (May 17, 2020).
"If we want a more visionary government we need to support more visionary candidates. And the time to do it is now....https://secure.actblue.com/donate/marianneendorses" (
Tweet ). Retrieved May 17, 2020 – via
Twitter .
^
"Getting Shit Done For the People" . Blue America . April 5, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020 .
^
"2020 Endorsed House Candidates" . DUH! Demand Universal Healthcare . Archived from
the original on May 2, 2020. Retrieved March 19, 2020 .
^ MT Progressive Dems (May 17, 2020).
"Montana Progressive Democrats are proud to endorse @WinterForMT for U.S. Representative" . Retrieved May 21, 2020 – via Twitter.
^ Our Revolution (April 30, 2020).
"We are so proud to endorse #ProgressiveChampion Tom Winter as he will fight for a #GreenNewDeal and better rights for working people. #PoliticalRevolution" . Retrieved May 21, 2020 – via Facebook.
^
"Endorsements" . Progressive Rising . July 8, 2019. Retrieved April 6, 2020 .
^
"We are endorsing Tom Winter for Congress because he is a Green New Deal champion" . April 30, 2020. Archived from
the original on December 26, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2020 – via Instagram.
^ Michels, Holly (March 9, 2020).
"Filing deadline for Montana ballot sees last-minute surprises" . Helena Independent Record .
^ Michels, Holly (August 7, 2020).
"Helena judge again takes Green Party off the ballot" . Helena Independent Record . Retrieved August 7, 2020 .
^
"2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019" . The Cook Political Report . Retrieved September 20, 2019 .
^
"2020 Senate Ratings" . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 3, 2019 .
^
"2020 Senate race ratings" . Sabato's Crystal Ball . Archived from
the original on August 22, 2019. Retrieved August 28, 2019 .
^
"2020 Election Forecast" .
Politico . November 19, 2019.
^
"Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020" . Daily Kos Elections . Retrieved February 28, 2020 .
^
"Battle for White House" .
RCP . April 19, 2019.
^
"2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections" .
Niskanen Center . April 28, 2020. Archived from
the original on June 21, 2020. Retrieved May 1, 2020 .
^
"Forecasting the US elections" .
The Economist . October 2, 2020. Retrieved October 2, 2020 .
^
"Montana Federal Election Results" . Montana Secretary of State. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 18, 2020 .
External links
Official campaign websites
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House (
election ratings )
Governors
Attorneys general
Secretaries of state
State legislatures
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Maine
Massachusetts
Michigan House
Minnesota
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Mayors
Bakersfield, CA
Baltimore, MD
Baton Rouge, LA
Clearwater, FL
Corpus Christi, TX
El Paso, TX
Fort Lauderdale, FL
Fresno, CA
Honolulu, HI
Irvine, CA
Lubbock, TX
Mesa, AZ
Miami-Dade County, FL
Milwaukee, WI
Phoenix, AZ
Portland, OR
Richmond, VA
Riverside, CA
Sacramento, CA
Salt Lake County, UT
San Diego, CA
San Juan, PR
Santa Ana, CA
Stockton, CA
Tulsa, OK
Virginia Beach, VA
Wilmington, DE
Winston-Salem, NC
Local
Clearwater, FL
Cook County, IL
Los Angeles, CA
Los Angeles County, CA
Orange County, CA
Portland, OR
San Diego, CA
San Diego County, CA
San Francisco, CA
Washington, DC
State-wide Related