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Counties that usually vote for presidential election winners
Election bellwether counties in the United States are
counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in
United States presidential elections , so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. The strongest
bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.
[1]
Significant bellwethers
The following
county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in
1980 :
Deviations in one election
The following 43 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no current bellwethers deviated from the winner in ONLY 1980, 1984, 1996 or 2008, although some deviated in one of those plus another election):
[3]
[4]
Overview of bellwether counties in federal elections
Election year of deviation
County
State
County winner
Votes
National winner
Last deviation
1988
Blaine
Montana
Michael Dukakis
1,460
1,402
George H. W. Bush
1912
Clay
Minnesota
11,186
10,380
1968
1992
Door
Wisconsin
George H. W. Bush
5,468
4,735
Bill Clinton
1976
Essex
New York
8,278
6,717
Hillsborough
New Hampshire
61,620
58,470
Kent
Delaware
15,562
15,364
1948
Saratoga
New York
36,917
33,011
1976
2000
Pinellas
Florida
Al Gore
200,657
184,849
George W. Bush
2004
Nicollet
Minnesota
John Kerry
8,797
8,689
Sullivan
New Hampshire
11,434
10,142
2012
Albany
Wyoming
Mitt Romney
7,866
7,458
Barack Obama
2016
Bexar
Texas
Hillary Clinton
319,550
240,333
Donald Trump
1968
Buncombe
North Carolina
75,452
55,716
1960
Centre
Pennsylvania
37,088
35,274
1976
Clackamas
Oregon
102,095
88,392
DeKalb
Illinois
20,466
19,091
Merced
California
37,317
28,725
1968
San Bernardino
340,833
271,240
1976
San Joaquin
121,124
88,936
Skagit
Washington
26,690
24,736
Stanislaus
California
81,647
78,494
1968
Sandoval
New Mexico
27,707
25,905
Ventura
California
194,402
132,323
1976
Will
Illinois
151,927
132,720
Winnebago
55,713
55,624
2020
Bremer
Iowa
Donald Trump
8,294
5,958
Joe Biden
Cortland
New York
10,789
10,369
Essex
Vermont
1,773
1,405
Hidalgo
New Mexico
1,120
823
1968
Juneau
Wisconsin
5,719
3,239
1960
Marquette
1976
Otsego
New York
14,382
12,975
Ottawa
Ohio
14,628
9,008
1960
Richland
Wisconsin
4,871
3,995
1976
Sawyer
5,909
4,498
1960
Shiawassee
Michigan
23,149
15,347
1976
Valencia
New Mexico
17,364
14,623
1948
Van Buren
Michigan
21,591
16,803
1976
Vigo
Indiana
23,545
18,213
1952
Warren
Illinois
4,676
3,090
1976
Washington
Maine
10,194
6,761
Westmoreland
Virginia
5,318
4,501
1960
Wood
Ohio
35,757
30,617
1976
Deviations in two elections
The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980:
[3]
Allamakee County, Iowa , in
1992 and
2020
Alamosa County, Colorado , in
2016 and
2020
Baldwin County, Georgia , in
1980 and
2016
Benzie County, Michigan , in
2012 and
2020
Blue Earth County, Minnesota , in
1988 and
2004
Brewster County, Texas , in
2012 and
2020
Bureau County, Illinois , in
2012 and
2020
Butte County, California , in
1996 and
2012
Caddo Parish, Louisiana , in
2000 and
2016
[a]
Caledonia County, Vermont , in
2004 and
2016
Calhoun County, Michigan , in
2000 and
2020
Calhoun County, South Carolina , in
1980 and
2020
Cascade County, Montana , in
2012 and
2020
Cass County, Michigan , in 2012 and 2020
Chesapeake, Virginia , in
1992 and
1996
Chickasaw County, Mississippi , in
1980 and
2020
Clark County, Washington , in
1988 and
2016
Clear Creek County, Colorado , in
2004 and 2016
Coles County, Illinois , in 2012 and 2020
Colleton County, South Carolina , in 1980 and 2020
Columbia County, Wisconsin , in
2000 and
2020
Coös County, New Hampshire , in
2004 and
2020
[4]
Cayuga County, New York , in
2000 and
2020
Chautauqua County, New York , in
2012 and 2020
Delaware County, Indiana , in
1992 and
2020
Dutchess County, New York , in
1992 and
2016
Eagle County, Colorado , in 2004 and 2016
East Baton Rouge Parish, Louisiana , in
1992 and 2016
Elk County, Pennsylvania , in
2012 and
2020
Essex County, Virginia , in 1992 and
2020
Fayette County, Kentucky , in
1992 and
2016
Fresno County, California , in 1996 and
2016
Gladwin County, Michigan , in 2012 and 2020
Gloucester County, New Jersey , in
2000 and
2004
Grand County, Utah , in
1996 and
2012
Guilford County, North Carolina , in
2004 and
2016
Gunnison County, Colorado , in 2004 and 2016
Hill County, Montana , in
1988 and 2020
Hillsborough County, Florida , in
1992 and
2016
[4]
Houston County, Minnesota , in
1992 and
2020
Island County, Washington , in
1996 and 2016
Jefferson County, Iowa , in
2004 and 2020
Jo Daviess County, Illinois , in
1992 and 2020
Kankakee County, Illinois , in 2012 and 2020
Kennebec County, Maine , in
2000 and
2004
Lake County, Illinois , in 1992 and
2016
Larimer County, Colorado , in
1996 and 2016
Latah County, Idaho , in
1988 and
2016
Lenawee County, Michigan , in 2012 and 2020
Lincoln County, Maine , in 2004 and
2016
Lincoln County, Wisconsin , in
1988 and 2020
Luna County, New Mexico , in
2012 and
2020
Madison County, New York , 1992 and 2020
Manistee County, Michigan , in 2000 and 2020
Marion County, Oregon , in
1992 and
2012
Marshall County, Iowa , in
1988 and 2020
Marshall County, South Dakota , in
1988 and
2020
Mason County, Illinois , in 2012 and 2020
McDonough County, Illinois , in 2012 and 2020
Menominee County, Michigan , in 2012 and 2020
Monroe County, Indiana , in
2004 and
2016
Monroe County, Michigan , in 2000 and 2020
Monroe County, Wisconsin , in
2012 and 2020
Montgomery County, Virginia , in
2012 and
2016
Northampton County, Pennsylvania , in
2000 and
2004 .
Oconto County, Wisconsin , in 2012 and 2020
Oneida County, Wisconsin , in 2012 and 2020
Orange County, New York , in 1992 and 2020
Orange County, Vermont , in
2004 and
2016
Orleans County, Vermont , in 2004 and 2016
Oswego County, New York , in 1992 and 2020
Penobscot County, Maine , in 2004 and
2020
Pike County, Mississippi , in 1980 and
2016
Pitt County, North Carolina , in
1996 and 2016
Porter County, Indiana , in 1992 and 2020
Presque Isle County, Michigan , in 2012 and 2020
Racine County, Wisconsin , in 1988 and 2020
Radford, Virginia , in
1980 and 2016
Ransom County, North Dakota , in
1988 and
2020
Rensselaer County, New York , in 2000 and
2004
Riverside County, California , in 1996 and 2016
Rockingham County, New Hampshire , in
1992 and
2012
Rockland County, New York , in 2000 and 2016
[a]
Routt County, Colorado , in 2004 and 2016
Sandusky County, Ohio , in
1992 and
2020
San Diego County, California , in 1996 and 2016
San Luis Obispo County, California , in 1996 and 2016
Sargent County, North Dakota , in 1988 and 2020
[4]
Sauk County, Wisconsin , in 2000 and
2004 .
Schuyler County, Illinois , in 2012 and 2020
Seneca County, New York , in 2000 and 2020
Spencer County, Indiana , in
2012 and 2020
St. Joseph County, Indiana , in
2000 and 2016
[a]
Stark County, Ohio , in
2004 and 2020
Starke County, Indiana , in 2012 and 2020
Sullivan County, New York , in 2000 and 2020
Sumter County, Georgia , in 1980 and 2016
Teton County, Wyoming , in
2004 and
2016
Traverse County, Minnesota , in 1988 and 2020
Tuscarawas County, Ohio , in
2012 and 2020
Union County, Iowa , in 1988 and 2020
Val Verde County, Texas , in
2016 and 2020
[4]
Vanderburgh County, Indiana , in 2012 and 2020
Wake County, North Carolina , in 1996 and 2016
Warren County, New York , in 1992 and 2020
Washington County, New York , in 1992 and 2020
Watonwan County, Minnesota , in
2012 and 2020
Whitman County, Washington , in
2012 and 2016
Williamsburg, Virginia , in
2004 and
2016
Winnebago County, Wisconsin , in
1992 and 2020
Winona County, Minnesota , in
2000 and 2004
Notes
^
a
b
c This county voted with the popular vote each time.
References