The 45th Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the
House of Commons to the
45th Canadian Parliament. The date of the vote is determined by the
fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election, though a current government bill proposes to postpone the date to October 27, 2025 to avoid conflicting with
Diwali.[1] In addition to the statutory fixed election date provisions, Canada has a constitutional requirement specified in both section 50 of the Constitution Act, 1867 and
section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms that elections for the House of Commons must be held no more than five years after the preceding election.
The election may occur before the scheduled date if the
governor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the
prime minister for a
snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a
motion of no confidence in the government. Early elections are more likely to occur during
minority governments because the prime minister does not control a majority in the House of Commons.[2][3][4]
This will be the first election to use a new
343-seat electoral map based on the
2021 Canadian census. New electoral boundaries for each of the ten provinces were finalized between February 14 and July 8, 2023,[5][6][7] and officially proclaimed on September 22, 2023.[8] The previous
338-seat electoral map would have been reused had the election been called before April 22, 2024.[9][8][10]
Background
The
2021 Canadian federal election, held on September 20 that year, saw little change from the preceding
2019 election.[11] The incumbent
Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister
Justin Trudeau, failed to win a parliamentary majority or the popular vote, but remained the party with the most seats and remained in office as a minority government. The Conservatives won the popular vote and continued as the Official Opposition.[12][d] On September 27,
Annamie Paul resigned as the
Green Party leader,[13] which came into effect on November 10.[14]
Date of the election
The date of the election is determined by the
fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.[15] However, a government bill currently under consideration by the House of Commons would change the fixed election date to October 27, 2025 to avoid conflicting with the Hindu festival of
Diwali.[1] Moving the election date to October 27, 2025 would also allow 74 members of parliament to qualify for a pension that they would not receive if they fail to achieve reelection, though the government denies this motivated the change.[16]
Political parties and standings
The table below lists parties represented in the
House of Commons after the
2021 federal election and their current standings.
Kevin Vuong was elected as a Liberal, having been disavowed by the party too late to alter his affiliation on the ballot, and sits as an
independent.[17]
On October 15, 2021, the
chief electoral officer announced that based on the procedure in the Constitution Act, 1867 as then in force, the allocation would result in an increase to 342 seats.[20] This included a reduction of Quebec’s allocation from 78 to 77 seats. The government tabled legislation on March 24, 2022, to prevent Quebec (or any other province) from losing any seats relative to the number of seats it was apportioned in
2012 redistribution.[21][22] The Preserving Provincial Representation in the House of Commons Act amended rule 2 of subsection 51(1) of the Constitution Act, 1867, commonly known as the "Grandfather Clause".[23][24] The bill passed the House of Commons on June 15,[25] the
Senate on June 21,[26] and received
royal assent on June 23, 2022.[27] The chief electoral officer announced the new allocation of seats on July 8, 2022, which would result in an increase to 343 seats.[28]
Pursuant to the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act as amended, ten federal electoral boundary commissions were established, one for each province, on November 1, 2021.[29] The boundary-drawing process commenced upon the release of census data in February 2022. Quebec’s commission adjusted its work to be based on a 78-seat allocation in July 2022. The respective commissions completed their work and finalized new electoral boundary sets on a rolling basis, beginning with the Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island commissions on February 14, 2023,[5][6] and finishing with the Ontario commission on July 8, 2023.[7] The chief electoral officer then used the final reports of the electoral boundary commissions to formalize a representation order, which was proclaimed on September 22, 2023.[8]
The changes to federal electoral district boundaries took effect on April 22, 2024.[9][20][8] If the election had been called before then, it would have occurred under the previous electoral district boundaries, which had been in effect since the
2015 federal election.[30][31]
Allocation of seats in the House of Commons under the Preserving Provincial Representation in the House of Commons Act
This will be the first election contested under the new electoral districts established in the 2022 redistribution. Consequently, media outlets tend to report seat gains and losses as compared to
notional results. These are the results if all votes cast in 2021 were unchanged, but regrouped by new electoral district boundaries, as published by
Elections Canada.[32]
September 27 –
Annamie Paul announced her intent to resign as leader of the Green Party.[57]
November 10 – Paul formally submitted her resignation, and ended her membership in the party.[14] The Green Party accepted her resignation a few days later.[58][59]
November 15 – Senator
Denise Batters launched a petition to review the leadership of Erin O'Toole.[60] Party president
Robert Batherson decided the petition was not in order.[60] The following day, Batters was removed from the conservative caucus.[61]
March 22 – The
Liberal and
New Democratic parties reached a
confidence and supply agreement, with the NDP agreeing to support the Liberal government until June 2025 in exchange for specific policy commitments.[69]
^Though parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats). Thus it is impossible for the party to gain a majority in Parliament.
^Includes
Kevin Vuong, who appeared on the ballot as a Liberal but was disavowed by the party during the campaign. He has not been seated as a member of the Liberal caucus.
^While formal results show the Liberals winning or leading in 160 seats, those totals include
Kevin Vuong, who was disavowed during the campaign by his party, and has since sat as an Independent in the House of Commons.
^"JOURNALS Thursday, June 23, 2022". ourcommons.ca. House of Commons of Canada. June 23, 2022. Retrieved June 24, 2022. A message was received informing the Commons that on June 23, at 10:28 p.m., Her Excellency the Governor General signified royal assent by written declaration to the following bills: Bill C-14, An Act to amend the Constitution Act, 1867 (electoral representation) — Chapter No. 6;