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Next general election in Ontario
The 44th Ontario general election is tentatively scheduled to be held on June 4, 2026. As of December 2016, Ontario elections are held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election,
[1] unless the
Legislative Assembly of Ontario is dissolved earlier by the
Lieutenant Governor of Ontario due to advice from the
Premier of Ontario , a
motion of no confidence or the failure of the Assembly to grant
supply . Such a dissolution is unlikely as the current government has a
majority .
Standings
Timeline
2022
2023
2024
Ridings
The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015
[26] increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal
2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in
Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.
The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016,
[27] recommended the creation of the additional districts of
Kiiwetinoong and
Mushkegowuk—James Bay , carved out from the existing
Kenora—Rainy River and
Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124.
[28]
[29] This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017 .
[30]
With the
2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution , Ontario has been allotted 1 additional seat in the
House of Commons , which could potentially increase the number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario.
Opinion polls
Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent
local regressions .
Polling firm
Last date of polling
Source
PC
NDP
Liberal
Green
New Blue
Other
Margin of error
Sample size
Polling type
Lead
Abacus Data
April 16, 2024
[p 1]
41
21
25
7
—
5
±3.1%
995
Online
16
Liaison Strategies
April 7, 2024
[p 2]
40
18
30
5
—
6
±2.74%
1,280
IVR
10
Abacus Data
March 21, 2024
[p 3]
41
21
27
7
—
5
±2.5%
1,500
Online
14
Liaison Strategies
March 9, 2024
[p 4]
39
21
29
5
—
6
±2.74%
1,283
IVR
10
Angus Reid
March 6, 2024
[p 5]
37
25
27
6
—
4
±3.0%
777
Online
10
Abacus Data
February 21, 2024
[p 6]
41
19
27
8
—
5
±3.1%
1,000
Online
14
Pallas Data
February 11, 2024
[p 7]
34.5
21.6
31.6
7.3
—
5.0
±2.9%
1,121
IVR
2.9
Liaison Strategies
February 3, 2024
[p 8]
[p 9]
38
22
30
5
—
5
±2.8%
1,236
IVR
8
Abacus Data
January 23, 2024
[p 10]
38
23
27
5
—
6
±3.1%
995
Online
11
Abacus Data
December 12, 2023
[p 11]
39
24
27
6
—
4
±3.1%
1,000
Online
12
Mainstreet Research
December 4, 2023
[p 12]
36
19
34
6
—
5
±3.3%
872
Smart IVR
2
December 2, 2023
Bonnie Crombie is elected leader of the
Ontario Liberal Party
Abacus Data
November 28, 2023
[p 13]
42
24
23
7
—
4
±2.6%
1,500
Online
18
Innovative Research
October 30, 2023
[p 14]
41
26
25
7
—
2
—
925
Online
15
Abacus Data
October 15, 2023
[p 15]
40
24
24
7
—
5
±3.7%
700
Online
16
Pallas Data
September 27, 2023
[p 16]
[p 17]
33.4
27.4
26.7
6.7
—
5.8
±3.2%
964
IVR
6
Angus Reid
September 6, 2023
[p 18]
38
28
22
7
—
5
—
656
Online
10
Abacus Data
September 4, 2023
[p 19]
34
26
28
7
—
5
±2.2%
2,003
Online
6
Pallas Data
August 29, 2023
[p 20]
37.3
25.8
26.9
5.2
—
4.9
±3.2%
940
IVR
10.4
Abacus Data
August 23, 2023
[p 21]
38
24
25
7
—
6
±3.1%
1,040
Online
13
Abacus Data
July 25, 2023
[p 22]
41
23
24
7
—
5
±3.1%
1,000
Online
17
Mainstreet Research
June 30, 2023
[p 23]
[p 24]
34.7
24.7
25.0
10.7
—
4.9
±3.1%
993
Smart IVR
9.7
Abacus Data
June 11, 2023
[p 25]
[p 26]
36
26
27
6
—
4
±3.1%
1,000
Online
9
Counsel Public Affairs
June 8, 2023
[p 27]
39
23
27
7
—
4
—
1,323
Online
12
Angus Reid
June 3, 2023
[p 28]
36
27
25
6
—
6
—
653
Online
9
Angus Reid
March 13, 2023
[p 29]
38
30
20
6
—
6
±3%
861
Online
8
Abacus Data
March 4, 2023
[p 30]
41
22
28
5
2
2
±3.1%
1,000
Online
13
Mainstreet Research
February 4, 2023
[p 31]
36.8
19.4
23.3
11.2
—
9.4
±2.9%
1,166
Smart IVR
13.5
February 4, 2023
Marit Stiles is declared leader of the
Ontario New Democratic Party
Angus Reid
December 3, 2022
[p 32]
37
27
25
6
—
5
±3%
1,058
Online
10
Mainstreet Research
December 2, 2022
[p 33]
37.3
25.9
24.4
6.6
—
5.8
±2.9%
1,162
Smart IVR
11.4
Abacus Data
November 5, 2022
[p 34]
38
26
27
5
3
2
±3.1%
1,000
Online
11
August 3, 2022
Steven Del Duca resigns as leader of the
Ontario Liberal Party ;
John Fraser becomes interim leader
June 28, 2022
Andrea Horwath resigns as leader of the
Ontario New Democratic Party ;
Peter Tabuns becomes interim leader
EKOS
June 20, 2022
[p 35]
[p 36]
37.5
23.3
19.2
9.8
5.2
5
±2.7%
1,357
Online/Telephone
14.2
2022 election
June 2, 2022
—
40.82
23.74
23.85
5.96
2.72
2.90
—
—
—
16.97
References
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"Ontario moves election date to June 7, 2018" . Toronto Star . Retrieved October 31, 2016 .
^ Benzie, Robert (June 2, 2022).
"Doug Ford trounces the competition as Steven Del Duca and Andrea Horwath resign as party leaders" .
Toronto Star . Retrieved June 6, 2022 .
^
"Ontario NDP names Peter Tabuns interim leader" .
CBC News .
The Canadian Press . June 28, 2022. Retrieved August 10, 2022 .
^ Jackson, Hannah (July 25, 2022).
"Ontario Liberal caucus selects John Fraser to serve as party's interim leader" .
Global News . Retrieved August 10, 2022 .
^
"Ontario Liberals Announce New Critic Roles" . www.ontarioliberal.ca . Retrieved August 10, 2022 .
^
"It's a done deal: Marit Stiles will win the NDP leadership uncontested | TVO.org" . www.tvo.org . Retrieved December 6, 2022 .
^
"CityNews" . toronto.citynews.ca .
^ Griffin, Tyler (February 4, 2023).
"Ontario NDP officially confirms Marit Stiles as leader by majority vote" .
CBC News .
The Canadian Press . Retrieved February 8, 2023 .
^
"Bonnie Crombie takes aim at Doug Ford after winning Ontario Liberal leadership" . The Globe and Mail . December 2, 2023. Retrieved December 3, 2023 .
^ Moro, Teviah (July 26, 2022).
" 'I love this city': Former Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath enters Hamilton mayoral race" .
Hamilton Spectator . Retrieved July 26, 2022 .
^ Werner, Kevin (August 15, 2022).
"Hamilton mayoral candidate Andrea Horwath officially resigns her Hamilton Centre seat Aug. 15" .
Hamilton Spectator . Retrieved August 18, 2022 .
^ Hristova, Bobby (March 16, 2023).
"NDP's Sarah Jama elected as next MPP for Hamilton Centre" .
CBC News .
Archived from the original on April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023 .
^ Stone, Laura (March 10, 2023).
"Progressive Conservative MPP Vincent Ke leaves caucus after allegations of election interference" .
The Globe and Mail . Retrieved March 13, 2023 .
^
"Ontario PC cabinet minister Merrilee Fullerton resigns" .
CP24 .
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^ Holder, Gord (July 27, 2023).
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Ottawa Citizen .
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^
The Canadian Press (April 1, 2023).
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CBC News .
Archived from the original on April 1, 2023. Retrieved April 1, 2023 .
^
"Toronto mayoral candidate Mitzie Hunter reveals date she'll resign as MPP" . thestar.com . May 2, 2023.
^ Nakhavoly, Melissa (July 27, 2023).
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CityNews . Retrieved December 1, 2023 .
^ Maher, Brandon (July 11, 2023).
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CityNews 570 . Retrieved July 13, 2023 .
^ Bueckert, Kate (January 18, 2023).
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CBC News . Retrieved July 13, 2023 .
^ Bholla, Cheyenne (November 30, 2023).
"Aislinn Clancy wins Kitchener Centre" .
Waterloo Region Record . Retrieved December 1, 2023 .
^
"Ontario MPP Kaleed Rasheed resigns from Ford's cabinet following Greenbelt probe" . CBC . September 21, 2023. Retrieved February 11, 2024 .
^ Richmond, Randy (September 22, 2023).
" 'Rising star' Monte McNaughton, region's top-ranking MPP, quits amid tumult" .
London Free Press . Retrieved December 1, 2023 .
^ DeClerq, Katherine (October 23, 2023).
"Ontario MPP Sarah Jama censured and removed from NDP caucus over Israel-Gaza comments" .
CP24 . Retrieved October 23, 2023 .
^ Crawley, Mike (January 25, 2024).
"Ontario PCs' Parm Gill resigns from cabinet to run for Poilievre's Conservatives" .
CBC News . Retrieved February 2, 2024 .
^
Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015 , S.O. 2015, c. 31
^ as a result of the
Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2016 , S.O. 2016, c. 33, s. 36
^
"Report: Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission" . August 8, 2017.
Archived from the original on March 19, 2018. Retrieved May 1, 2018 .
^ Benzie, Robert (August 8, 2017).
"Ontario to get 17 new ridings, including a constituency that is largely Indigenous" .
Toronto Star .
Archived from the original on December 6, 2017. Retrieved December 10, 2017 .
^
Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017 , S.O. 2017, c. 18
Opinion poll sources
^
"Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs ahead of Crombie Liberals by 16" .
Abacus Data . April 22, 2024. Retrieved April 22, 2024 .
^ Valentin, David (April 11, 2024).
"Ford PCs Lead Liberals by 10, 49% of Ontarians Would Abolish Carbon Tax" . Liaison Strategies . Retrieved April 11, 2024 .
^
"Ford vs. Poilievre: What Ontarians think plus the latest Ontario politics tracker" .
Abacus Data . March 25, 2024. Retrieved March 25, 2024 .
^ Valentin, David (March 11, 2024).
"Ontario PCs Lead Liberals by 10, Ontarians believe Province is Doing Best on Housing" . Liaison Strategies . Retrieved March 11, 2024 .
^
"Ontario Spotlight: Budget deficit adds to Ford government's challenges, as criticism on top issues mounts from all sides" . Angus Reid Institute . April 2, 2024. Retrieved April 2, 2024 .
^
"Doug Ford's Tories are surging at the expense of Marit Stiles' New Democrats, poll suggests" .
Toronto Star . February 26, 2024. Retrieved February 26, 2024 .
^
"Ontario - Provincial Voting Intentions And Assessment of the Ford Government" (PDF) . www.thetrillium.ca . Pallas Data. Retrieved February 19, 2024 .
^ Valentin, David (February 6, 2024).
"Ontario PCs Lead Liberals by 8, No Confidence in the Healthcare system" . Liaison Strategies . Retrieved February 9, 2024 .
^ Wilson, Codi (February 6, 2024).
"Ford's PC Party has eight-point lead over Liberals but Crombie gaining ground in some areas: poll" .
CTV News Toronto .
Bell Media . Retrieved February 9, 2024 .
^
"Doug Ford's Tories are ahead, but ominous signs are on the horizon, poll suggests" .
Toronto Star . January 28, 2024. Retrieved January 28, 2024 .
^
"Bonnie Crombie is exposing vulnerabilities in Doug Ford's Tories, poll suggests" .
Toronto Star . December 18, 2023. Retrieved December 18, 2023 .
^ Martin, Robert (December 5, 2023).
"Mainstreet Ontario, December 2023 Public" . Mainstreet Research . Retrieved December 5, 2023 .
^ Coletto, David (December 1, 2023).
"As the Ontario Liberals prepare to announce new leader, Ford PCs open up an 18-point lead over the NDP" .
Abacus Data . Retrieved December 2, 2023 .
^
"Canada This Month: Greenbelt Controversy" (PDF) . Innovative Research Group . November 10, 2023. Retrieved November 13, 2023 .
^ Coletto, David (October 18, 2023).
"Ontario PCs rebound despite RCMP investigation starting" .
Abacus Data . Retrieved October 20, 2023 .
^
"Provincial Voting Intentions and Ontarians' Opinions on Ontario Liberal Leadership Candidates" (PDF) . Village Media . Retrieved October 2, 2023 .
^ Smith Cross, Jessica (October 2, 2023).
"Support for Doug Ford's PCs nears all-time low, poll finds" . The Trillium .
Village Media . Retrieved October 2, 2023 .
^
"Greenbelt Grief: Ford's personal approval drops to five-year low, but voters still prefer PCPO to opposition options" . www.angusreid.org . September 8, 2023.
^ Coletto, David (September 6, 2023).
"Ford's PCs down 7-points since the end of July as the Greenbelt scandal bites" . Abacus Data . Retrieved September 6, 2023 .
^
"Provincial Voting Intentions and Ontarians' Attitudes About Greenbelt Development" (PDF) . Village Media . Pallas Data. August 30, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023 .
^ Coletto, David (August 25, 2023).
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^ Benzie, Robert (July 26, 2023).
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^ Fric, Curtis (July 6, 2023).
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^
"Latest Ontario Polling From Mainstreet!" . Twitter . Mainstreet Research. July 6, 2023. Retrieved July 6, 2023 .
^ Benzie, Robert (June 12, 2023).
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^ Coletto, David (June 13, 2023).
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^ Nanji, Sabrina (July 20, 2023).
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^
"Provincial Performance: B.C. & Ontario governments face immense, growing criticism over handling of key issues" (PDF) . www.angusreid.org .
^
"Ontario Spotlight: NDP under Marit Stiles opens up gap over Liberals, but new leader still relatively unknown" (PDF) . www.angusreid.org .
^
"Ontario Politics: PCs lead by 13 as the public reacts to the story about the Ford family stag-and-doe and wedding" . abacusdata.ca . Retrieved March 7, 2023 .
^
"Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario" (PDF) . ipolitics.ca . Retrieved February 6, 2023 .
^
"Angus Reid Ontario Spotlight: Ford government frozen out over key issues of inflation, health care, education" . angusreid.org . December 15, 2022. Retrieved December 16, 2022 .
^
"Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario" (PDF) . ipolitics.ca . Retrieved December 5, 2022 .
^
"Abacus Data | Ford vs. Education Workers: How are Ontarians reacting?" . abacusdata.ca . November 6, 2022. Retrieved November 7, 2022 .
^
"The 2022 Ontario Election in Review" . Ekos Politics . June 27, 2022.
^
"Ekos Data Tables" (PDF) . Archived from
the original (PDF) on November 7, 2022.
External links
Most recent Future elections Lists Electoral districts System