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2004 United States presidential election in Virginia

←  2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout70.8% Increase 3.6 [1]
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 13 0
Popular vote 1,716,959 1,454,742
Percentage 53.73% 45.53%

County and Independent City Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 13 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Virginia was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by an 8.20% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise a red state. The state had voted for the Republican candidate in all presidential elections since 1952 except for 1964's Democratic landslide. This pattern continued in 2004, although it would be broken four years later by the Democratic victory in 2008.

As of the 2020 presidential election, the 2004 election is the last time that Virginia has voted for a Republican candidate in a presidential election. This is also the last time Virginia and West Virginia have voted for the same candidate.

This was also the last time Buchanan County and Dickenson County would vote Democratic for president; and the last time Loudoun County, Prince William County, and Henrico County, and the independent Cities of Winchester, Radford, Staunton, Harrisonburg, Manassas, Suffolk, Hopewell, and Manassas Park, would vote Republican for president. As of 2020, this is also the last time Virginia has voted to the right of Florida, which remained a traditional bellwether state as Virginia transitioned from safely red to safely blue; as well as the last time Virginia has voted to the right of Missouri or Ohio, two Midwestern bellwether states that were either in the process of becoming more safely red or would soon begin doing so. Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Fairfax County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. [2]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Solid R
Associated Press Lean R
CNN Likely R
Cook Political Report Lean R
Newsweek Lean R
New York Times Lean R
Rasmussen Reports Likely R
Research 2000 Solid R
Washington Post Likely R
Washington Times Solid R
Zogby International Likely R
Washington Dispatch Likely R

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 50% to 45%. [3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $8,594,386. [4] Kerry raised $6,125,128. [5]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election. [6] [7]

Analysis

For about 80 years after the Civil War, Virginia was, like most other former Confederate states, reliably Democratic at the presidential level. After the passage of civil rights legislation in the mid-1960s and the ensuing " Southern strategy," Virginia turned strongly Republican at the presidential level, being the only former Confederate state to vote for Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter in 1976. Much of the Republican strength in the state was based in the large and growing Richmond- and Washington, D.C.-area suburbs of Henrico, Chesterfield, and Fairfax Counties. This trend would start to change in the 2000s; although Bush was widely expected to carry Virginia and did prevail in the state by over 8 points, this election set the stage for the state to become more competitive on the presidential level in the future.

Though the state was uncontested by both campaigns, [8] John Kerry became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to carry Fairfax County, long a key Republican stronghold and the most populous county in the state. He was also the first Democrat since Harry S. Truman in 1948 to carry the independent city of Danville and Albermarle County. [9] However, Bush managed to keep the margin in Virginia roughly unchanged with respect to 2000 by making further inroads in rural Virginia, particularly in Southwest Virginia, a heavily unionized region that had traditionally been one of the Democratic strongholds in the state. Bush became the first Republican to carry Russell County since 1972 and expanded his margin by over 10 points in Washington, Scott, Wise, Lee, and Smyth Counties. These countervailing trends would continue in subsequent elections, with Democrats expanding their support in Fairfax County while Republicans showed increasing support in Appalachian Virginia.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Virginia [10]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush ( inc.) Dick Cheney 1,716,959 53.73% 13
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 1,454,742 45.53% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 11,032 0.35% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 10,161 0.32% 0
Independent (Write-in) Ralph Nader (Write-in) Peter Camejo 2,393 0.07% 0
Green (Write-in) David Cobb (Write-in) Pat LaMarche 104 <0.01% 0
Write-ins - 24 <0.01% 0
Totals 3,195,415 100.00% 13
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 57.2%

By county

These results combine counties and independent cities in Virginia.

County or City George W. Bush
Republican
John Kerry
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Accomack County 7,726 57.85% 5,518 41.31% 112 0.84% 2,208 16.54% 13,356
Albemarle County 21,189 48.46% 22,088 50.51% 449 1.03% -899 -2.05% 43,726
Alleghany County 3,962 55.07% 3,203 44.52% 30 0.42% 759 10.55% 7,195
Amelia County 3,499 64.83% 1,862 34.50% 36 0.67% 1,637 30.33% 5,397
Amherst County 7,758 61.11% 4,866 38.33% 71 0.56% 2,892 22.78% 12,695
Appomattox County 4,366 65.60% 2,191 32.92% 98 1.47% 2,175 32.68% 6,655
Arlington County 29,635 31.31% 63,987 67.60% 1,028 1.09% -34,352 -36.29% 94,650
Augusta County 22,100 74.40% 7,019 23.63% 585 1.97% 15,081 50.77% 29,704
Bath County 1,432 62.75% 828 36.28% 22 0.96% 604 26.47% 2,282
Bedford County 21,925 69.82% 9,102 28.98% 377 1.20% 12,823 40.84% 31,404
Bland County 1,962 68.48% 846 29.53% 57 1.99% 1,116 38.95% 2,865
Botetourt County 10,865 68.78% 4,801 30.39% 131 0.83% 6,064 38.39% 15,797
Brunswick County 2,852 41.18% 4,062 58.65% 12 0.17% -1,210 -17.47% 6,926
Buchanan County 4,507 45.85% 5,275 53.67% 47 0.48% -768 -7.82% 9,829
Buckingham County 3,185 52.85% 2,789 46.28% 53 0.88% 396 6.57% 6,027
Campbell County 15,891 69.10% 6,862 29.84% 244 1.06% 9,029 39.26% 22,997
Caroline County 4,999 50.22% 4,878 49.01% 77 0.77% 121 1.21% 9,954
Carroll County 8,173 67.39% 3,888 32.06% 67 0.55% 4,285 35.33% 12,128
Charles City County 1,254 36.46% 2,155 62.66% 30 0.87% -901 -26.20% 3,439
Charlotte County 3,166 58.22% 2,223 40.88% 49 0.90% 943 17.34% 5,438
Chesterfield County 83,745 62.58% 49,346 36.88% 723 0.54% 34,399 25.70% 133,814
Clarke County 3,741 57.51% 2,699 41.49% 65 1.00% 1,042 16.02% 6,505
Craig County 1,706 65.09% 901 34.38% 14 0.53% 805 30.71% 2,621
Culpeper County 10,026 64.25% 5,476 35.09% 103 0.66% 4,550 29.16% 15,605
Cumberland County 2,377 57.61% 1,721 41.71% 28 0.68% 656 15.90% 4,126
Dickenson County 3,591 48.49% 3,761 50.78% 54 0.73% -170 -2.29% 7,406
Dinwiddie County 6,193 57.14% 4,569 42.15% 77 0.71% 1,624 14.99% 10,839
Essex County 2,304 53.04% 2,007 46.20% 33 0.76% 297 6.84% 4,344
Fairfax County 211,980 45.94% 245,671 53.25% 3,728 0.81% -33,691 -7.31% 461,379
Fauquier County 19,011 63.55% 10,712 35.81% 192 0.64% 8,299 27.74% 29,915
Floyd County 4,162 61.81% 2,488 36.95% 84 1.25% 1,674 24.86% 6,734
Fluvanna County 6,458 58.94% 4,415 40.29% 84 0.77% 2,043 18.65% 10,957
Franklin County 14,048 63.21% 8,002 36.01% 173 0.78% 6,046 27.20% 22,223
Frederick County 19,386 67.93% 8,853 31.02% 301 1.05% 10,533 36.91% 28,540
Giles County 4,320 57.62% 3,047 40.64% 131 1.75% 1,273 16.98% 7,498
Gloucester County 11,084 67.86% 5,105 31.26% 144 0.88% 5,979 36.60% 16,333
Goochland County 6,668 64.50% 3,583 34.66% 87 0.84% 3,085 29.84% 10,338
Grayson County 4,655 65.22% 2,430 34.05% 52 0.73% 2,225 31.17% 7,137
Greene County 4,570 65.86% 2,240 32.28% 129 1.86% 2,330 33.58% 6,939
Greensville County 1,732 40.68% 2,514 59.04% 12 0.28% -782 -18.36% 4,258
Halifax County 8,363 57.06% 6,220 42.44% 73 0.50% 2,143 14.62% 14,656
Hanover County 35,404 71.36% 13,941 28.10% 266 0.54% 21,463 43.26% 49,611
Henrico County 71,809 53.82% 60,864 45.62% 745 0.56% 10,945 8.20% 133,418
Henry County 13,358 56.94% 9,851 41.99% 249 1.06% 3,507 14.95% 23,458
Highland County 982 64.61% 522 34.34% 16 1.05% 460 30.27% 1,520
Isle of Wight County 9,929 62.56% 5,871 36.99% 71 0.45% 4,058 25.57% 15,871
James City County 18,949 60.95% 11,934 38.39% 207 0.67% 7,015 22.56% 31,090
King and Queen County 1,737 52.86% 1,506 45.83% 43 1.31% 231 7.03% 3,286
King George County 5,124 64.69% 2,739 34.58% 58 0.73% 2,385 30.11% 7,921
King William County 4,397 63.98% 2,436 35.45% 39 0.57% 1,961 28.53% 6,872
Lancaster County 3,724 59.78% 2,477 39.76% 29 0.47% 1,247 20.02% 6,230
Lee County 5,664 57.97% 4,005 40.99% 101 1.03% 1,659 16.98% 9,770
Loudoun County 60,382 55.69% 47,271 43.60% 777 0.72% 13,111 12.09% 108,430
Louisa County 7,083 58.85% 4,844 40.25% 108 0.90% 2,239 18.60% 12,035
Lunenburg County 2,858 54.49% 2,362 45.03% 25 0.48% 496 9.46% 5,245
Madison County 3,556 61.61% 2,176 37.70% 40 0.69% 1,380 23.91% 5,772
Mathews County 3,497 68.18% 1,589 30.98% 43 0.84% 1,908 37.20% 5,129
Mecklenburg County 7,319 57.27% 5,293 41.42% 168 1.31% 2,026 15.85% 12,780
Middlesex County 3,336 62.04% 1,914 35.60% 127 2.36% 1,422 26.44% 5,377
Montgomery County 17,070 54.16% 14,128 44.83% 317 1.01% 2,942 9.33% 31,515
Nelson County 3,539 49.57% 3,543 49.63% 57 0.80% -4 -0.06% 7,139
New Kent County 5,414 68.13% 2,443 30.75% 89 1.12% 2,971 37.38% 7,946
Northampton County 2,669 48.54% 2,775 50.46% 55 1.00% -106 -1.92% 5,499
Northumberland County 3,832 59.79% 2,548 39.76% 29 0.45% 1,284 20.03% 6,409
Nottoway County 3,303 54.78% 2,635 43.70% 92 1.53% 668 11.08% 6,030
Orange County 7,749 59.94% 5,015 38.79% 164 1.27% 2,734 21.15% 12,928
Page County 6,221 64.78% 3,324 34.61% 58 0.60% 2,897 30.17% 9,603
Patrick County 5,507 67.04% 2,572 31.31% 136 1.66% 2,935 35.73% 8,215
Pittsylvania County 17,673 64.46% 9,274 33.83% 470 1.71% 8,399 30.63% 27,417
Powhatan County 8,955 73.62% 3,112 25.59% 96 0.79% 5,843 48.03% 12,163
Prince Edward County 3,571 48.81% 3,632 49.64% 113 1.54% -61 -0.83% 7,316
Prince George County 8,131 61.35% 5,066 38.22% 57 0.43% 3,065 23.13% 13,254
Prince William County 69,776 52.84% 61,271 46.40% 1,016 0.77% 8,505 6.44% 132,063
Pulaski County 8,769 61.53% 5,310 37.26% 172 1.21% 3,459 24.27% 14,251
Rappahannock County 2,172 53.63% 1,837 45.36% 41 1.01% 335 8.27% 4,050
Richmond County 2,082 61.95% 1,243 36.98% 36 1.07% 839 24.97% 3,361
Roanoke County 30,596 65.14% 16,082 34.24% 295 0.63% 14,514 30.90% 46,973
Rockbridge County 5,412 58.95% 3,627 39.51% 142 1.55% 1,785 19.44% 9,181
Rockingham County 21,737 74.40% 7,273 24.89% 206 0.71% 14,464 49.51% 29,216
Russell County 6,077 53.20% 5,167 45.23% 179 1.57% 910 7.97% 11,423
Scott County 6,479 65.00% 3,324 33.35% 164 1.65% 3,155 31.65% 9,967
Shenandoah County 11,820 68.94% 5,186 30.25% 140 0.82% 6,634 38.69% 17,146
Smyth County 7,906 64.18% 4,143 33.63% 270 2.19% 3,763 30.55% 12,319
Southampton County 4,018 53.63% 3,431 45.80% 43 0.57% 587 7.83% 7,492
Spotsylvania County 28,527 62.77% 16,623 36.58% 295 0.65% 11,904 26.19% 45,445
Stafford County 28,500 61.98% 17,208 37.42% 278 0.60% 11,292 24.56% 45,986
Surry County 1,543 43.81% 1,954 55.48% 25 0.71% -411 -11.67% 3,522
Sussex County 1,890 43.50% 2,420 55.70% 35 0.81% -530 -12.20% 4,345
Tazewell County 10,039 57.43% 7,184 41.10% 257 1.47% 2,855 16.33% 17,480
Warren County 8,600 61.13% 5,241 37.25% 227 1.61% 3,359 23.88% 14,068
Washington County 14,749 65.51% 7,339 32.60% 426 1.89% 7,410 32.91% 22,514
Westmoreland County 3,433 50.13% 3,370 49.21% 45 0.66% 63 0.92% 6,848
Wise County 8,330 58.20% 5,802 40.54% 180 1.26% 2,528 17.66% 14,312
Wythe County 7,911 68.47% 3,581 30.99% 62 0.54% 4,330 37.48% 11,554
York County 19,396 64.91% 10,276 34.39% 208 0.70% 9,120 30.52% 29,880
Alexandria City 19,844 32.26% 41,116 66.84% 555 0.90% -21,272 -34.58% 61,515
Bedford City 1,472 57.91% 1,042 40.99% 28 1.10% 430 16.92% 2,542
Bristol City 4,275 63.58% 2,400 35.69% 49 0.73% 1,875 27.89% 6,724
Buena Vista City 1,417 59.31% 936 39.18% 36 1.51% 481 20.13% 2,389
Charlottesville City 4,172 27.00% 11,088 71.77% 190 1.23% -6,916 -44.77% 15,450
Chesapeake City 52,283 57.11% 38,744 42.32% 514 0.56% 13,539 14.79% 91,541
Colonial Heights City 6,129 74.46% 2,061 25.04% 41 0.50% 4,068 49.42% 8,231
Covington City 1,104 47.98% 1,179 51.24% 18 0.78% -75 -3.26% 2,301
Danville City 9,399 49.18% 9,436 49.37% 277 1.45% -37 -0.19% 19,112
Emporia City 970 43.67% 1,247 56.15% 4 0.18% -277 -12.48% 2,221
Fairfax City 5,045 47.84% 5,395 51.16% 106 1.01% -350 -3.32% 10,546
Falls Church City 2,074 34.01% 3,944 64.68% 80 1.31% -1,870 -30.67% 6,098
Franklin City 1,613 45.62% 1,910 54.02% 13 0.37% -297 -8.40% 3,536
Fredericksburg City 3,390 44.95% 4,085 54.16% 67 0.89% -695 -9.21% 7,542
Galax City 1,336 57.22% 987 42.27% 12 0.51% 349 14.95% 2,335
Hampton City 23,399 41.98% 32,016 57.44% 326 0.58% -8,617 -15.46% 55,741
Harrisonburg City 6,165 55.89% 4,726 42.85% 139 1.26% 1,439 13.04% 11,030
Hopewell City 4,251 53.57% 3,573 45.02% 112 1.41% 678 8.55% 7,936
Lexington City 982 41.81% 1,340 57.05% 27 1.15% -358 -15.24% 2,349
Lynchburg City 14,400 54.67% 11,727 44.52% 213 0.81% 2,673 10.15% 26,340
Manassas City 7,257 56.24% 5,562 43.11% 84 0.65% 1,695 13.13% 12,903
Manassas Park City 1,807 54.23% 1,498 44.96% 27 0.81% 309 9.27% 3,332
Martinsville City 2,538 45.30% 3,036 54.19% 29 0.52% -498 -8.89% 5,603
Newport News City 32,208 47.40% 35,319 51.98% 425 0.63% -3,111 -4.58% 67,952
Norfolk City 26,401 37.41% 43,518 61.67% 651 0.92% -17,117 -24.26% 70,570
Norton City 768 51.06% 725 48.20% 11 0.73% 43 2.86% 1,504
Petersburg City 2,238 18.73% 9,682 81.03% 29 0.24% -7,444 -62.30% 11,949
Poquoson City 5,004 77.22% 1,424 21.98% 52 0.80% 3,580 55.24% 6,480
Portsmouth City 15,212 38.48% 24,112 60.99% 210 0.53% -8,900 -22.51% 39,534
Radford City 2,564 52.92% 2,244 46.32% 37 0.76% 320 6.60% 4,845
Richmond City 21,637 29.11% 52,167 70.19% 521 0.70% -30,530 -41.08% 74,325
Roanoke City 16,661 46.28% 18,862 52.39% 477 1.33% -2,201 -6.11% 36,000
Salem City 7,115 61.96% 4,254 37.04% 115 1.00% 2,861 24.92% 11,484
Staunton City 5,805 60.29% 3,756 39.01% 68 0.71% 2,049 21.28% 9,629
Suffolk City 16,763 52.08% 15,233 47.32% 193 0.60% 1,530 4.76% 32,189
Virginia Beach City 103,752 59.06% 70,666 40.22% 1,269 0.72% 33,086 18.84% 175,687
Waynesboro City 5,092 63.95% 2,792 35.06% 79 0.99% 2,300 28.89% 7,963
Williamsburg City 2,064 47.78% 2,216 51.30% 40 0.93% -152 -3.52% 4,320
Winchester City 5,283 56.55% 3,967 42.46% 93 1.00% 1,316 14.09% 9,343
Totals 1,716,959 53.68% 1,454,742 45.48% 26,666 0.83% 262,217 8.20% 3,198,367
County Flips:

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Bush won nine of eleven congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat. [11]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 60% 39% Jo Ann Davis
2nd 58% 42% Thelma Drake
3rd 33% 66% Robert C. Scott
4th 57% 43% Randy Forbes
5th 56% 43% Virgil Goode
6th 63% 36% Bob Goodlatte
7th 61% 38% Eric Cantor
8th 35% 64% Jim Moran
9th 60% 39% Rick Boucher
10th 55% 44% Frank Wolf
11th 50% 49% Thomas M. Davis

Electors

Technically the voters of Virginia cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Virginia is allocated 13 electors because it has 11 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 13 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 13 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 13 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:

  1. Yvonne McGee McCoy
  2. Loretta H. Tate
  3. Theodore C. Brown
  4. Woodrow Harris
  5. Keith C. Drake
  6. Wendell S. Walker
  7. Peter E. Broadbent
  8. Sean Michael Spicer
  9. Lloyd C. Martin
  10. Dorothy L. Simpson
  11. Carlton John Davis
  12. Charles E. Dane
  13. Rebecca Anne Stoeckel

References

  1. ^ "Registration/Turnout Statistics". Virginia Department of Elections. Archived from the original on October 18, 2018. Retrieved September 18, 2018.
  2. ^ "D.C.'s Political Report's 2004 Presidential Ratings". www.dcpoliticalreport.com. October 29, 2004. Archived from the original on July 29, 2012. Retrieved January 26, 2022.
  3. ^ "2004 Presidential Election Polls". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Election.
  4. ^ "George W Bush — $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". campaignmoney.com. Retrieved July 26, 2017.
  5. ^ "John F Kerry — $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". campaignmoney.com. Retrieved July 26, 2017.
  6. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  7. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  8. ^ Sabato, Larry J. "Kerry Can Win Virginia…But Will He? – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Retrieved November 8, 2021.
  9. ^ Menendez, Albert J. (2005). The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, 1868-2004. pp. 131, 328–331. ISBN  0786422173.
  10. ^ Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. "Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 2, 2004" (PDF).
  11. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008". Swing State Project. Retrieved July 26, 2017.