SSP | Scenario |
Estimated warming (2041–2060) |
Estimated warming (2081–2100) |
Very likely range in °C (2081–2100) |
---|---|---|---|---|
SSP1-1.9 | very low GHG emissions: CO2 emissions cut to net zero around 2050 |
1.6 °C | 1.4 °C | 1.0 – 1.8 |
SSP1-2.6 | low GHG emissions: CO2 emissions cut to net zero around 2075 |
1.7 °C | 1.8 °C | 1.3 – 2.4 |
SSP2-4.5 | intermediate GHG emissions: CO2 emissions around current levels until 2050, then falling but not reaching net zero by 2100 |
2.0 °C | 2.7 °C | 2.1 – 3.5 |
SSP3-7.0 | high GHG emissions: CO2 emissions double by 2100 |
2.1 °C | 3.6 °C | 2.8 – 4.6 |
SSP5-8.5 | very high GHG emissions: CO2 emissions triple by 2075 |
2.4 °C | 4.4 °C | 3.3 – 5.7 |
The IPCC Sixth report did not estimate the likelihoods of the scenarios [1]: 12 but a 2020 commentary described SSP5–8.5 as highly unlikely, SSP3–7.0 as unlikely, and SSP2–4.5 as likely. [2]
However, a report citing the above commentary shows that RCP8.5 is the best match to the cumulative emissions from 2005 to 2020. [3]
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