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China's economy is considerably more complex to understand than the US economy, the size of the country, the diversity in development, the population, the workforce, the complex relations between state and private all argue for an article longer than that for the USA. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Chinareporter ( talk • contribs) 09:49, 3 May 2009 (UTC)
You people should be ashamed. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 130.219.235.234 ( talk) 19:04, 5 April 2009 (UTC) 'Bold text
This article was the subject of a Wiki Education Foundation-supported course assignment, between 27 February 2022 and 5 May 2022. Further details are available on the course page. Student editor(s): Bettyhwt ( article contribs).
The GDP per capita figure suggests that China's economy could be classified as high income next year, but is it not too early to call it high income now? Any thoughts on this? OrientalTraveller ( talk) 14:38, 10 September 2022 (UTC)
There needs to be a section reporting that Chinese statistics are propaganda/or just plain old unreliable and another on the impact of the Chinese real estate crash on the economy and banking system. The section on demographics needs to be expanded to include recent birth data.
Independent analysts who have tried to determine the size of China's economy say that it is somewhere around 1/2 to 2/3rds the size that China claims it to be. These studies are bases on travel statistics, electricity usage, city luminosity and other factors. Many of them also say that China is currently in either a deep recession or a depression (an economic contraction of over 20%) because of the real estate crash.
Peter Zeihan for instance states, in an over the top fashion, that "This is China's last generation" based on demographics. China currently reports around 9 million births a year. Assuming a life expectancy of 75 years that implies a population of 675 billion, which is less than half the claimed current population of China. That birth rate has been dropping for years and is now roughly half the replacement level. With the current tough economic times, it will most likely keep dropping as marriage rates continue to drop drop due to a lack of earning power to raise a family. China also has the issue of the selective abortion of females, and a resulting preponderance of males in the population, who can't give birth. Unlike other nations which need 2.1 births per female to have a stable population, Chinese women need to give births at a higher rate for a stable population. Probably around 2.5. A further drop in the birth rate implies that the population of China will drop quite a bit below 675 million over the next century and based on these trends, that the US population will overtake that of China's sometime in the next century.
In this Zeihan presentation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UA-jOLF2T4c starting around the 53:30 minute mark, Zeihan claims that the Chinese population is already over counted by 100 million and that by 2050 the Chinese may lose another 600 million people, dropping to around 700 million.
Is China in a Depression or just a recession?? Nobody really knows as China fudges so many of its economic statistics. The condition of the real estate sector strongly implies that it is in either in a deep recession (over 10% drop) or a depression (over a 20% drop). Most sources states that prior to the real estate crash, this sector was around 30% of the Chinese economy. With most of the sector in a standstill it is likely that this sector is now around 10% of the total economy, dropping from 30% to a around 10%. In other words 20% of the Chinese economy has vanished and the Chinese economy has therefore contracted. This sector is unlikely to recover because of its huge debt levels and overbuilding. Evegrande, the real estate developer which is the worst off financially, owes around $340 billion to banks, bondholders, former workers and subcontractors. It has also failed to complete something like 1 million housing units, which have already been paid for. These units will cost further $100's of billions to complete, meaning that the company is more like $5-600 billion in the hole. For comparison, it's sale volume peaked at just over $100 billion a year
Of "what used to be" the 3 largest Chinese real estate developers, 2 of them, County Garden and Evergrande, are bankrupt, and the third, Vanke, is in serious trouble. This is "slap your face" evidence that Chinese real estate is in a massive contraction. Vanke used to be the smallest of the top 3.
A section on China's banking problems would also be desirable. China's real estate firms have taken out a lot of debt which they now can't repay. Much of this was to Chinese banks and money management firms. These firms now have a hole in their balance sheet that is in the trillions of dollars, and this hole is becoming increasingly visible as banking/investment groups either fold or refuse to give depositors their money.
Zhongrong Trust, a money manager with around $500 billion under management recently declared that it is "severely insolvent", is $37 billion in the hole and cannot make payments. Wanxiang Trust is reportedly in trouble as well, having missed payments. 108.26.243.70 ( talk) 17:28, 16 December 2023 (UTC)
The following FT article contains a chart of the number of date sets issued by China. Assuming it is not a copyright infringement, it would be a nice addition to the article.
https://www.ft.com/content/43bea201-ff6c-4d94-8506-e58ff787802c
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/ftcms%3A05b134e8-0a85-42d5-9deb-f15de2c266a1?source=next-article&fit=scale-down&quality=highest&width=700&dpr=2 108.26.243.70 ( talk) 16:56, 17 December 2023 (UTC)
It is outdated as China's official GDP for 2022 was 17,963 billion.
The table has 18,100.0
I am sure many of the other numbers from 2022 onwards are also outdated. 108.26.243.70 ( talk) 02:40, 18 December 2023 (UTC)
The GDP listed for China as $25.4 Trillion nominal doesn't match the reference. Something very fishy is going on? — Preceding unsigned comment added by Channard ( talk • contribs) 05:12, 14 January 2024 (UTC)
There is one authoritative source for Chinese data, and that's the National Bureau of Statistics (< https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/>). The IMF and the New York Times get data from there, so IMF's (and NYT) a secondary source. The official figure is 1,260,582.1 hundred million yuan, or Rmb126,058.21 billion. Last year, the exchange rate averaged Rmb7.0809:US$1. Therefore, the economy was US$17,802.57 billion. If you want to play around with someone’s definition of purchasing power parity, please be very specific as to both source and the reason that source should be considered definitive. DOR (ex-HK) ( talk) 23:09, 24 February 2024 (UTC)
Suggest the authors take a look at a recent NHK documentary on the subject of China's GDP, which is grossly inflated. There may be as much as 15 Trillion (USD) in provincial debt as China pursues a failed business model. Public unrest is widespread with economic collapse a question of when, and not if. 109.154.51.224 ( talk) 16:02, 24 February 2024 (UTC)
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The article states that "China's manufacturing sector benefits from the world's largest domestic market" but this is no longer true as India has a larger population, and according to Wikipedia itself the US and EU have much larger consumer markets. 129.32.45.245 ( talk) 21:27, 28 February 2024 (UTC)
I've noticed that the percentage share of 'manufacturers' within the export goods line inside there 'external' section in the beginning introductory "Quick facts" tab/panel is incorrect. Inside the very source it is linking to, the percentage is 94.3% and NOT 74.3%. There seems to be an error in the first number. Tmbehar ( talk) 07:28, 29 February 2024 (UTC)