Bias caused by fallacious belief that greater precision implies greater accuracy
Precision bias also known as numeracy bias is a form of
cognitive bias[1] in which an evaluator of information commits a logical
fallacy as the result of confusing
accuracy and precision.[2] More particularly, in assessing the merits of an argument, a measurement, or a report, an observer or assessor falls prey to precision bias when they believe that greater precision implies greater accuracy (i.e., that simply because a statement is precise, it is also true); the observer or assessor are said to provide
false precision.[3][4]
The
clustering illusion[5] and the
Texas sharpshooter fallacy[6] may both be treated as relatives of precision bias. In these related fallacies, precision is mistakenly considered evidence of causation, when in fact the clustered information may actually be the result of
randomness.
^Proceedings of the 33rd Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (CogSci 2011), held in Boston, USA 20-32 July 2011 / L. Carlson, C. Hoelscher and T. Shipley (eds.): pp.1521-1526