An election for the third
Supreme Leader of Iran is scheduled to be held following the end of the current tenure of
Ali Khamenei. As of January 2024, no person has been officially declared as the heir to the current leader nor as a nominee, though various sources have written on potential candidates.
The succession of Khamenei is deemed to have been decided but isn't disclosed publicly.[1][2] Constitutionally, the
Assembly of Experts is tasked to select the next leader. Its fifth and current term was elected in
2016 and is scheduled to sit until
2024.[3]
Khamenei has not discussed his replacement. He has said selecting the future leader must be without care and shame and or regard expediency but based on only the 3 principles of "truth, the need of the country, and God".[4][5]
A four man council of Assembly of Experts is examining possible candidates while keeping it fully secret and advising the current supreme leader as of 2024.[6][7]
The Supreme Leader of Iran is selected by members of the
Assembly of Experts to serve a
life tenure. According to Article 111 of
Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, if the incumbent Supreme Leader dies in office or is dismissed, the Assembly of Experts should immediately hold a session and appoint a successor.[3] A 'Provisional Leadership Council' is mandated to carry out the responsibilities of the supreme leader until a permanent successor is selected, which is made up of the incumbent
President, the incumbent
Chief Justice, and one of clerics of the
Guardian Council who is selected by the
Expediency Discernment Council.[3]
Alleged plans
In December 2015,
Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said a committee in the
Assembly of Experts "is examining potential candidates to be the next Supreme Leader." He also said the Assembly would be open to choosing "a council of leaders if needed" instead of a single leader.[1]
Ahmad Khatami told press in 2016 that a committee made up of three Assembly members had given three names to the supreme leader "to seek his verdict", but later remarked what he said was "hypothetical" and blamed media for misreporting his words.[8]Mohsen Araki, commented in June 2019 that the committee has drafted a "top secret list of prospective supreme leaders" and will present three names to the Assembly "when it is necessary."[8]Hashem Hashemzadeh Herisi confirmed that such a committee exists, adding that the names on the list will not be disclosed. He also stated that the decisions made by the committee will not be fateful because the next leader must be voted by a majority of all members in the assembly.[8] Prior to that, in February 2019
Mohsen Mojtahed Shabestari had categorically dismissed allegations that
Ebrahim Raisi and
Ahmad Khatami were considered as candidates for the next leader by the assembly, stating that the question "has never been debated at the assembly".[9]
As of 2023, the Assembly of Experts is discussing a potential program to reestablish the post of
Vice Supreme Leader, which was last held by
Hussein-Ali Montazeri from 1985 to 1989.[10]
Analysis
In 2023, Israeli military intelligence had assessed President Ebrahim Raisi would succeed Khamenei.[11]John Bolton argued the regime would be vulnerable in the event of Khamenei's death.[12]
Speculations about potential successors by commentators
The persons listed in this section are, according to analyses and comments made by various sources, potential candidates (the names are sorted by age):