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The Storm Prediction Center issues daily outlooks denoting the risk for severe weather and wildfires for specific regions in the United States. For severe weather, which includes the risk for thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail, and straight-line winds, there are five risk levels indicating the probability for these hazards: marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, and high. For wildfires, there are three risk levels: elevated, critical, and extremely critical. [1]

Although outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center indicate the severity of a convective or wildfire threat, they do not always come to fruition. There have been many instances where a high risk outlook did not verify and only a few tornadoes occurred. [2] Conversely, there have been days where a lower risk level was issued and a major tornado outbreak occurred. Some of the deadliest severe weather and wildfire days in recent history did not have a high risk or extremely critical outlook issued. For example, the 2011 Joplin tornado, which killed 158 people occurred on a moderate risk day, [3] as did the tornado outbreak of December 10–11, 2021, which killed 89 people. [4] Furthermore, both the October 2017 Northern California wildfires, which killed 44 people, [5] and the 2023 Hawaii wildfires, which killed 101 people occurred under a critical fire weather outlook. [6]

The following are lists of the deadliest days in which various risk levels were issued for severe weather and wildfires.

Deadliest severe weather outlooks

Note: Fatality totals include deaths that took place in regions outside of the delineated outlook zones. Furthermore, only direct tornadic fatalities that occurred on the day that the outlook was issued for are included.

Slight risk days

Fatalities Event Outlook Region Date
30 Saragosa tornado [7] Central and Midwestern U.S. May 22, 1987
24 Evansville tornado outbreak [8] Midwestern U.S. November 6, 2005
Tornado outbreak of March 2–3 [9] Middle Mississippi River Valley March 3, 2020
21 Groundhog Day tornado outbreak [10] Southeastern U.S. February 2, 2007
17 Tornado outbreak of December 10–11 [11] Eastern U.S. December 11, 2021
9 Super Tuesday tornado outbreak [12] Eastern U.S. February 6, 2008
New Year's Eve tornado outbreak [13] Mississippi River Valley December 31, 2010
8 Tornado outbreak of April 20 [14] Midwestern U.S. April 20, 2004
Tornado outbreak of November 14–16 [15] Southeastern U.S. November 16, 2006
7 Tornado outbreak of March 15 [16] Midwestern U.S. March 15, 1984

Enhanced risk days

Note: Enhanced risks have only been issued since October 22, 2014.

Fatalities Event Outlook Region Date
23 Tornado outbreak of March 3 [17] Southeastern U.S. March 3, 2019
13 Tornado outbreak of December 26–28 [18] Central U.S. December 26, 2015
10 Easter tornado outbreak [19] Southeastern U.S. April 13, 2020
8 Tornado outbreak of January 12 [20] Southeastern U.S. January 12, 2023
7 Tornado outbreak of March 5–7 [21] Midwestern U.S. March 5, 2022
Tornado outbreak of December 9–10 [22] Middle Mississippi River Valley December 9, 2023
6 Tornado outbreak of January 10–11 [23] Southeastern U.S. January 11, 2020
Tornado outbreak of April 22–23 [24] Central U.S. April 22, 2020
5 Tornado outbreak of December 23–24 [25] Southeastern U.S. December 23, 2014
Tornado outbreak of April 4–5 [26] Ohio River Valley April 5, 2023

Moderate risk days

Fatalities Event Outlook Region Date
159 Tornado outbreak sequence of May 21–26 [3] Midwestern U.S. May 22, 2011
76 United States–Canada tornado outbreak [27] Northeastern U.S., Great Lakes region May 31, 1985
72 Tornado outbreak of December 10–11 [4] Middle Mississippi River Valley December 10, 2021
42 Kissimmee tornado outbreak [28] Southeastern U.S. February 22, 1998
29 Plainfield tornado [29] Midwestern U.S., Great Lakes region August 28, 1990
28 Central Texas tornado outbreak [30] Central U.S. May 27, 1997
27 March 1997 tornado outbreak [31] Central U.S. March 1, 1997
Tornado outbreak of April 2 [32] Midwestern U.S. April 2, 2006
24 Tornado outbreak of May 18–21 [33] Central U.S. May 20, 2013
22 Easter tornado outbreak [34] Southeastern U.S. April 12, 2020
Tornado outbreak of March 24–27 [35] Central U.S. March 24, 2023

High risk days

Main article: List of Storm Prediction Center high risk days
Fatalities Event Outlook Region Date
316 Super Outbreak [36] Southeastern U.S. April 27, 2011
57 Carolinas tornado outbreak [37] Southeastern U.S. March 28, 1984
48 Super Tuesday tornado outbreak [38] Middle Mississippi River Valley February 5, 2008
46 Oklahoma tornado outbreak [39] Central U.S. May 3, 1999
41 Tornado outbreak of March 2–3 [40] Ohio River Valley March 2, 2012
40 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak [41] Southeastern U.S. March 27, 1994
38 Tornado outbreak sequence of May 2003 [42] Central U.S. May 4, 2003
35 Tornado outbreak of April 6–9 [43] Southeastern U.S. April 8, 1998
34 Tornado outbreak of November 9–11 [44] Southeastern U.S., Ohio River Valley November 10, 2002
27 Tornado outbreak of April 2–3 [45] [46] Central and Midwestern U.S. April 2, 1982

Deadliest fire weather outlooks

Note: Fatality totals include deaths that took place in regions outside of the delineated outlook zones. Furthermore, only direct wildfire fatalities that occurred on the day that the outlook was issued for are included.

Critical days

Fatalities Event Outlook Region Date
101 2023 Hawaii wildfires [6] [nb 1] Hawaii August 8, 2023
31 October 2017 Northern California wildfires [5] California October 8, 2017
19 Yarnell Hill Fire [47] Southwestern U.S. June 30, 2013
18 North Complex Fire and Slater and Devil fires [48] Western U.S. September 9, 2020
13 October 2017 Northern California wildfires [49] California October 9, 2017
12 Cedar Fire [50] California October 26, 2003

Extremely critical days

Main article: List of Storm Prediction Center extremely critical days
Fatalities Event Outlook Region Date
85 Camp Fire [51] California November 8, 2018
12 Texas–Oklahoma wildfires [52] Southern Great Plains March 12, 2006
10 [53] September 2020 Labor Day wildfires [54] Northwestern U.S. September 8, 2020
7 March 2017 Great Plains wildfires [55] Southern Great Plains March 6, 2017
4 April 2009 Texas wildfires [56] Southern Great Plains April 9, 2009

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The Storm Prediction Center does not issue fire weather outlook maps for areas outside of the contiguous United States. However, a Red flag warning was in effect for portions of Hawaii on August 8th, which indicates that critical fire conditions were expected.

References

  1. ^ Chris Hayes Novy (March 25, 2010). "SPC and its Products: Convective Outlooks". Storm Prediction Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved December 26, 2022.
  2. ^ Henson, Bob. "What Happened—and Didn't Happen—with the May 20–21 High-Risk Outbreak". Weather Underground. Retrieved December 26, 2022.
  3. ^ a b Storm Prediction Center May 22, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  4. ^ a b Storm Prediction Center December 10, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  5. ^ a b Storm Prediction Center October 8, 2017 0657 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
  6. ^ a b NWS Honolulu (August 7, 2023). "Red Flag Warning". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Iowa State University. Archived from the original on August 10, 2023. Retrieved August 10, 2023.
  7. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook May 22, 1987". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  8. ^ Storm Prediction Center November 6, 2005 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  9. ^ Storm Prediction Center March 3, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  10. ^ Storm Prediction Center February 2, 2007 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  11. ^ Storm Prediction Center December 11, 2021 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  12. ^ Storm Prediction Center February 6, 2008 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  13. ^ Storm Prediction Center December 31, 2010 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  14. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 20, 2004 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  15. ^ Storm Prediction Center November 16, 2006 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  16. ^ Storm Prediction Center March 15, 1984 1918 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  17. ^ Storm Prediction Center March 3, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  18. ^ Storm Prediction Center December 26, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  19. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 13, 2020 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  20. ^ Storm Prediction Center January 12, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  21. ^ Storm Prediction Center March 5, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  22. ^ Storm Prediction Center December 9, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  23. ^ Storm Prediction Center January 11, 2020 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  24. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 22, 2020 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  25. ^ Storm Prediction Center December 23, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  26. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 5, 2023 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  27. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook May 31, 1985". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  28. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook February 22, 1998". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  29. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook August 28, 1990". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  30. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook May 27, 1997". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  31. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook March 1, 1997". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  32. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 2, 2006 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  33. ^ Storm Prediction Center May 20, 2013 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  34. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 12, 2020 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  35. ^ Storm Prediction Center March 24, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  36. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 27, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  37. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook March 28, 1984". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  38. ^ Storm Prediction Center February 5, 2008 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  39. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook May 3, 1999". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  40. ^ Storm Prediction Center March 2, 2012 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  41. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook March 27, 1994". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  42. ^ Storm Prediction Center May 4, 2003 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  43. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook April 8, 1998". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  44. ^ "SPC Convective Outlook November 10, 2002". Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved December 27, 2022.
  45. ^ "Notable Weather Events of 2022". National Weather Service. Retrieved January 3, 2023.
  46. ^ Weiss, Steven; Wilson, Larry; Edwards, Roger (December 22, 2020). "In Memoriam: Robert H. Johns 1942 – 2020". National Weather Association. Retrieved January 3, 2023.
  47. ^ Storm Prediction Center June 30, 2013 0815 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
  48. ^ Storm Prediction Center September 9, 2020 1658 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
  49. ^ Storm Prediction Center October 9, 2017 0621 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
  50. ^ Storm Prediction Center October 26, 2003 1030 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
  51. ^ Storm Prediction Center November 8, 2018 1200 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
  52. ^ Storm Prediction Center March 12, 2006 0950 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
  53. ^ Mass, Clifford; Ovens, David; Conrick, Robert; Saltenberger, John (2021). "The September 2020 Wildfires over the Pacific Northwest". Weather and Forecasting. 36 (5). American Meteorological Society: 1843–1865. Bibcode: 2021WtFor..36.1843M. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-21-0028.1. S2CID  238699028. Retrieved January 1, 2023.
  54. ^ Storm Prediction Center September 8, 2020 1200 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
  55. ^ Storm Prediction Center March 6, 2017 0558 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
  56. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 9, 2009 0856 UTC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
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