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Jean-Pascal van Ypersele de Strihou (born 1957) is a Belgian academic
climatologist. He is a professor of
Environmental Sciences at the
UCLouvain (Belgium). As a previous vice-chair of the
IPCC, Van Yp (as he is called by his peers) is one of the forerunners of
climate change mitigation through strong decrease of
fossil fuel consumption.
Quote
"The debate has shifted from a scientific one 40 years ago to a very political one today, involving economic interests, geopolitics, different priorities given to environment or development, and a clash between short-term and long-term visions." (2015).[1]
Astronomy was his youth passion. Aged ten, he built his first telescopes with gutter scrap and lenses that he got from opticians in Brussels. Twelve years old, he was an assiduous reader of Sky & Telescope.[2]
In 1971 he became secretary of the amateur Cercle Astronomique de Bruxelles club, which put him into contact with professional astronomists. On 30 June 1973 he was part of an international team of astronomists that travelled to Kenya to observe the longest
solar eclipse of the 20th century.[2]
Van Ypersele carried out a PhD research in
climatology. At the initiative of professor
André Berger the Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique
Georges Lemaître of the
UCLouvain had started to study the impacts of changes in concentration of
greenhouse gasses on the evolution of the Earth's climate. In and outside Europe, research on the effects of human activities on the climate produced its first results.[3]
At the UCLouvain, van Ypersele became professor of
climatology and
environmental sciences. He further specialised in the numerical simulation of climate change in an interdisciplinary perspective, and has worked at global and regional scales. He is particularly interested in the effect of human activities on climate, the impact of climate variability and change on
ecosystems and human activities, and what can be done about it (
adaptation and
mitigation).[3]
van Ypersele authored papers on subjects on a plethora of issues, including the modeling of sea ice, palaeoclimates, the climate of the 20th and 21st century, regional climate change in
Europe,
Greenland, and
Africa, and the ethical issues associated with responsibility for climate change.
Teaching
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele teaches courses at the
UCLouvain
In November 1995, he participated in his first IPCC meeting (the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that investigates climate change on Earth) in Madrid, as sole Belgian representative. He contributed to a short sentence that entered in the annals of the organisation: The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate. This statement is crucial, as it mentions clearly for the first time that a worrying climate evolution is ongoing; it is demonstrated and no longer a theoretical projection of the future.[5]
He was member of the core writing team for the Synthesis Report of the 5th
Assessment Report in 2014.[3]
He was one of IPCC Vice-Chairs during the 5th cycle of evaluation, from September 2008 to October 2015.
He was nominated by the Belgian government as candidate to the IPCC Chair position in 2015, but not elected.[7][8]
He remains an active member of IPCC and contributes strongly to the development and dissemination of its scientific message. He established the
Walloon platform for the IPCC, with the assistance of the
Walloon government in
Belgium to facilitate contacts between the
IPCC, the scientific world and politicians. He was appointed by
UNESCO to be part of a group of experts[9] tasked with drafting a Declaration on Ethical Principles in relation to Climate Change (approved by the UNESCO assembly in November 2017).[10] The
UN Secretary General appointed him in 2016 as a member of a 15-member group of scientists[11] tasked with the preparation of the first quadrennial Global Sustainable Development Report.[12] In 2017, he was appointed as a member of the high-level Advisory Group for the
COP23 Presidency by the
Fiji Prime Minister.[3][13]
He participates in numerous events related to climate change – personally or virtually – thanks to his lectures and networks. All over the world. One day he is in Lima, Geneva or Marrakesh. The next day he may talk in Brussels for an auditorium filled with students or trade unionists. Two days later he addresses senior staff of a multinational bank, European bishops or a group of freemasons.[2]
Candidacy as IPCC chair in 2015
In 2014 van Ypersele was nominated by the Belgian government as candidate to take over IPCC-chair from
Rajendra Pachauri in 2015.[1][15][16][17]
For 20 months, he travelled around the world to present an elaborate programme to decision makers, scientists, industrialists and journalists. His aim was to increase the influence of the IPCC.[1]
The elections of IPCC Bureau members (Chair, Vice-Chairs, and Working Group and TFI Co-Chairs and Vice-Chairs) were held during the 42nd IPCC Session from 5 to 8 October 2015, in
Dubrovnik. Despite the assistance and official support of the Belgian government, his campaign pledge to maintain the scientific independence of the IPCC, and his stressing of the importance of
inclusiveness and communication,[16] Jean-Pascal van Ypersele was not elected. He lost in the final round against
Hoesung Lee with 56 votes to 78.[7][8]
As his mandate as a vice-president had run out, he was no longer a member of the IPCC bureau. He continued participating in the IPCC plenary sessions as a representative of the Belgian delegation.[2]
On 2 April 2019 he announced that he would again apply for the IPCC presidency.[18][19]
Main publications
PhD thesis
A Numerical Study of the Response of the Southern Ocean and Its Sea Ice to a CO2-Induced Atmospheric Warming, National Center for Atmospheric Research and Université catholique de Louvain, Boulder (USA) and Louvain-la-Neuve, 1986.
Books
In het oog van de klimaatstorm [in Dutch], Epo, Berchem, 2018[20]
Meeting report of the IPCC Expert Meeting on Communication. Geneva: World Meteorological Organization, IPCC, 2016.[21]
Une vie au cœur des turbulences climatiques [in French], Bruxelles, De Boeck supérieur, 2015, 128 p.[5]
IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [lid redactieraad]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.[22]
van Ypersele, J-P. & Hudon, M. (eds.), Actes du 1er Congrès interdisciplinaire du développement durable : quelle transition pour nos sociétés ? [in French], 6 volumes, Service Public de Wallonie, 2013.
Climate change and the Belgian development cooperation policy: challenges and opportunities, FPS Foreign Affairs, Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation and Université catholique de Louvain, Brussel, 2008.
Le Treut, H., J.P. van Ypersele, S. Hallegatte et J.C. Hourcade (ed.), Science du changement climatique – Acquis et controverses [in French], IDDRI, Paris, 2004.[23]
Articles in scientific journals
2014. Comparison of one-moment and two-moment bulk microphysics for high-resolution climate simulations of intense precipitation: Atmos. Research[24]
2010. The impact of the unilateral EU commitment on the stability of international climate agreements: Climate Policy[25]
2009. Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "reasons for concern": Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA[26]
2009. PRIMES scenario analysis towards 2030 for Belgium: European Review of Energy Markets, Energy Policy Studies[27]
2008. Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa: Clim. Dyn. [28]
2007. The 1979-2005 Greenland ice sheet melt extent from passive microwave data using an improved version of the melt retrieval XPGR algorithm: Geophys. Res. Lett. [29]
2006. L'injustice fondamentale des changements climatiques [in French]: Alternatives Sud[30]
2006. The 1988-2003 Greenland ice sheet melt extent using passive microwave satellite data and a regional climate model: Clim. Dyn. [31]
2002. Are natural climate forcings able to counteract the projected anthropogenic global warming?: Clim. Change[32]
2000. Nous empruntons la Terre aux enfants d'aujourd'hui et de demain [in French]: Lumen Vitae[34]
1999. Potential role of solar variability as an agent for climate change: Clim. Change[35]
1999. Volcanic and solar impacts on climate since 1700: Clim. Dyn. [36]
1992. Simulation of the Last Glacial Cycle By a Coupled, Sectorially Averaged Climate-ice Sheet Model. 2. Response To Insolation and CO2 Variations: J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. [37]
1991. Simulation of the Last Glacial Cycle By a Coupled, Sectorially Averaged Climate-ice Sheet Model.1. The Climate Model: J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.[38]
1986. Climate and Desertification – Editorial, in van Ypersele J.P. & M. Verstraete (eds), Climate and Desertification Special Issue: Climatic Change[39]
Book chapters
2012. Comment le GIEC gère-t-il les incertitudes scientifiques? [in French][40]
2008. The fundamental injustice of climate change[41]
2006. The Relationships Between Population and Environment[42]
2004. A few, ou comment affaiblir un texte du GIEC [in French][43]
2002. The Kyoto Protocol: an economic and game-theoretic interpretation[44]
Involvement with the society
Since 1993, he is a member of the Belgian Federal Council for Sustainable Development, and since 1998 he chairs its Working Group on Energy and Climate.
In 2005, he was appointed as member of the "Energy 2030" commission (advising the Belgian government on
energetic transition).[3]
From 2008 to 2011, he was the chair of the scientific committee of the world's largest exhibition (SOS-Planet) on climate change in the
Liège-Guillemins railway station.[45]
In 2011, he co-organised the First Stephen Schneider Symposium (
Boulder,
Colorado, US). In 2013, he co-chaired the First interdisciplinary Symposium on Sustainable Development in
Namur (
Belgium), and co-chaired its second edition in 2015 in
Louvain-la-Neuve (
Belgium). He personally briefed several heads of state, many ministers and CEOs about climate issues, and has been or is member of several international scientific advisory or editorial boards[3] (
EU FP7 Research Programme, Dutch Climate Research Programme,
Météo-France, EU JPI-Climate TAB,
Royal Meteorological Institute (Belgium), the leading journal Climatic Change,[46] established by
Stephen Schneider).
In 2019 he became member of a think tank of climate experts that was established in synergy with the
climate strikes of the Belgian
Youth For Climate, in which secondary school students left classes to demonstrate in favour of measures against
climate change.[47] Throughout 2019 he appeared as an assiduous supporter of the young activists.[19]
In 2019 he was appointed as an expert with the EU
Horizon 2020 Mission Board for Adaptation to Climate Change, including Societal Transformation.[48]
Awards and honours
2006: Energy and Environment Award of the International Polar Foundation
2007:
Nobel Peace Prize, awarded to
Al Gore and the
IPCC (van Ypersele was vice-president of IPCC's working group II)
2018: Leadership Prize by the Harvard Club of Belgium[52]
Renown
Van Ypersele has delivered hundreds of lectures and has given more than a thousand interviews in international media;[1] he has almost 14000 followers on
Twitter, which puts him among the 50 top world
climate scientists on Twitter.
He has been featured in a ministry examination for the secondary 5 level in
Quebec province,
Canada.
In a 2018
Associated Press interview, van Ypersele urged that "countries should do everything possible to work towards the report's goal of reining in carbon emissions by 2030, at which point scientists say damage to the climate will be irreversible unless urgent action has been taken." He added, "Nobody, even the so-called superpowers, can negotiate with the laws of physics."[53]
Controversy
Van Ypersele's work is sometimes challenged by “
climate confusers”; there was a petition signed by eight Belgian academics and opinion makers opposing his candidacy as IPCC chair in 2015.[54] Most known of these opponents is his colleague from
UCLouvain, Professor
István Markó [
fr] who produced a large scientific output in the field of organic chemistry, but not climatology.[55][56]
^
abcdefghijLamotte, Philippe (2018). Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, de klimaatpelgrim. In: In het oog van de klimaatstorm. Berchem, Belgium: EPO.
ISBN9789462671225.
OCLC1016626443.
^Vanvyve, Emilie; Hall, Nicholas; Messager, Christophe; Leroux, Stéphanie; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal (1 February 2008). "Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa". Climate Dynamics. 30 (2): 191–202.
Bibcode:
2008ClDy...30..191V.
doi:
10.1007/s00382-007-0281-6.
S2CID128478679.
^Bertrand, Cédric; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal; Berger, André (1 December 2002). "Are Natural Climate Forcings Able to Counteract the Projected Anthropogenic Global Warming?". Climatic Change. 55 (4): 413–427.
doi:
10.1023/A:1020736804608.
S2CID15264816.
^Bertrand, Cédric; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal (1 October 1999). "Potential Role of Solar Variability as an Agent for Climate Change". Climatic Change. 43 (2): 387–411.
doi:
10.1023/A:1005470900774.
S2CID153608830.
^Gallée, H.; Yperselb, J. P. Van; Fichefet, T.; Marsiat, I.; Tricot, C.; Berger, A. (5 May 1992). "Simulation of the last glacial cycle by a coupled, sectorially averaged climate-ice sheet model: 2. Response to insolation and CO2 variations". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 97 (D14): 15713–15740.
Bibcode:
1992JGR....9715713G.
doi:
10.1029/92JD01256.
^Gallée, H.; Ypersele, J. P. van; Fichefet, Th; Tricot, Ch; Berger, A. (5 May 1991). "Simulation of the last glacial cycle by a coupled, sectorially averaged climate—ice sheet model: 1. The climate model". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 96 (D7): 13139–13161.
Bibcode:
1991JGR....9613139G.
doi:
10.1029/91JD00874.