Turkey's
share of current global greenhouse gas emissions is 1.3%.[8] Annual per person emissions since the late-2010s have varied around six and a half
tonnes,[9] which is about
the global average.[10] Although greenhouse gas totals are reported some details, such as the split between cars and lorries, are not published. Turkey has not yet sent a long-term strategy to the
UNFCCC.[11]
The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines three methodological tiers to measure emissions. Tier 1 uses global defaults and simplified assumptions, so is the easiest but least accurate. Tier 2 uses country specific values and more detailed data. Tier 3 uses the most detailed data and modelling, so is the most difficult to compile but the most accurate. To make best use of human resources each nation may decide to only use higher tiers to estimate its particular "key categories". Turkstat selects these categories depending on either the absolute level of emissions from that category, or whether it is trending, or uncertain.[1]: 439 For example, N2O from wastewater treatment and discharge was a key category for 2021 solely because of its quickly rising emissions.[1]: 440 Nevertheless, most of the key categories selected in 2021 are the largest emitting sectors,
cement production for example. Turkey uses Tier 2 and Tier 3 methodology for some key categories, for example a power plant might
analyse the lignite it burns, which differs from mine to mine.[1]: 72 Although road transport is a key category, it is not split between cars and lorries as is done in some countries. In 2021 the UNFCCC asked Turkey why it reported negligible indirect GHGs (
carbon monoxide,
nitrogen oxides, non-methane
volatile organic compounds and
sulfur oxides) in 2018.[24]: 12
Greenhouse gas sources
Turkey emitted 524 Mt of GHG in 2020,[16] which is higher than would be sustainable under a
global carbon budget.[25][26] Per-person gross emissions are above the world average,[27] at 6.3 t in 2020.[16] Turkey's cumulative CO2 emissions are estimated at around 11 Gt, which is less than 1% of the world's cumulative total (Turkey's population is about 1% of world population).[21] Turkey's emissions can be looked at from different perspectives to the standard IPCC classification: for example a 2021 study by
Izmir University of Economics estimated that food, "from farm to fork", accounts for about a third of national emissions.[28] This is similar to the global emissions share of food.[29]
Burning
coal in Turkey was the largest contributor to fossil-fuel emissions in 2021, followed by oil and natural gas.[1]: 57 That year, Turkey's energy sector emitted over 70% of the country's GHG,[16] mostly through electricity generation, followed by transport.[b][1]: 43 In contrast agriculture contributed 13% of emissions and industrial processes and product use (IPPU) also 13%.[9]Carbon capture and storage is not economically viable, since the country has no
carbon pricing.[30] The GHG emission intensity of energy consumption is higher than in the EU.[31]
From 2023 Turkey expects to greatly increase gas production.[32] In 2021, IEA head
Fatih Birol called for fossil-fuel producing countries to include limits on
methane leaks in their climate pledges,[33] for example the United States is doing this.[34]
Production of public heat and electricity emitted 148
megatonnes of CO2e in 2021,[35]: table 1s1 cell B10 mainly through coal burning.[c] In 2020,
emission intensity was about 440 gCO2/kWh,[37] around the average for
G20 countries.[38] Investment in wind and solar is hampered by subsidies for coal.[39]: 10
Subsidised coal burnt by poor families gives off black carbon (a contributor to climate change) and other
local air pollution. Residential fuel, such as natural gas and coal, contributed 50 Mt CO2e in 2021.[1]: 135 Burning
fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas to heat commercial and institutional buildings emitted 14 Mt CO2e in 2021.[1]: 133 According to the
Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, "Our country aims to use our energy resources efficiently, effectively and in a way that has a minimum impact on the environment within the scope of the sustainable development objectives."[40][d]
Coal-fired power stations
Turkey's coal-fired power stations are the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey at 103 Mt (about 20% of national emissions – see pie chart) in 2021.[35]: table 1.A(a)s1 cell G26 "solid fuels" Over a kilogram of CO2 is emitted for every
KWh of electricity generated in Turkey by coal-fired power stations.[41]: 177 If operated at the targeted
capacity factor, planned
units at Afşin Elbistan would add over 60 Mt CO2 per year,[42]: 319 more than one-tenth of the country's entire emissions.[43][e][f]
Almost all coal burnt in power stations is local
lignite or imported
bituminous (hard) coal.
Coal analysis of Turkish lignite shows that it is high in ash and moisture, low in
energy value and high in
emission intensity.[44] So Turkish lignite emits more CO2 than other countries' lignites.[44] Although imported hard coal has a lower emission intensity when burnt, because it is transported much further its
life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions are similar to lignite.[41]: 177 When carbon dioxide (CO2) from coal used by industry and buildings, and
methane emissions from
coal mining, are added to those from coal-fired electricity generation, over 30% of Turkey's annual emissions come from coal. In 2021, burning coal emitted 153 Mt CO2 in total.[1]: 57 Methane leaks from coal mines in 2021 were equivalent to 6 Mt CO2.[1]: 141 Eren Holding (via Eren Enerji's coal-fired
ZETES power stations) emits over 2% of Turkey's GHG, and
İÇDAŞ emits over 1% from its Bekirli coal-fired power stations.[45] Emissions of
black carbon are not published for individual power stations,[46]: 2 as Turkey has not ratified the
Gothenburg Protocol on air pollution.[47]
Gas-fired power stations
Gas-fired power stations emitted 46 Mt CO2e in 2021.[35]: table 1.A(a)s1 cell G27 It is difficult for them to compete with coal partly due to the lack of a carbon price.[48] Electricity generation from gas tends to increase when hydropower is limited by droughts.[49] Import costs for natural gas are expected to fall during the mid-2020s with the start of production from the
Sakarya Gas Field in the
Black Sea.[50]
Transport fuel
Transport emitted 91 Mt of CO2e in 2021,[1]: 104 a bit over one tonne per person.
Road transport in the country dominated emissions with 86 Mt (including agricultural vehicles).[1]: 105 Over three-quarters of Turkey's road-transport emissions come from
diesel fuel.[1]: 108 Average emissions of new cars in 2016 were about 120 g CO2/km[52]: 17 Although the EU has a 2021 target of 95 g of CO2/km, Turkey has no target.[52]: 17 In 2018, Turkey had no measures in place to reduce the
well-to-wheel impact of petrol and diesel vehicles,[53] except for a requirement for 3%
ethanol in fuel (compared to 10% in the EU).[54] However more use of biofuels may not be sustainable.[54] Fuel quality and emissions standards for new cars are less strict than those in the EU;[55]: 102 and in 2019 about 45% of cars were over 10 years old and energy-inefficient.[52]: 16 The market share of electric vehicles was below world average in 2020.[56]: 113 Domestic flights[g] emitted 3 Mt of CO2e in 2021[1]: 112 and their VAT rate was cut to 1%.[57]
Industry
In 2021,
Turkey's industrial sector emitted 75 Mt (13%) of GHG.[9] But, as of 2019[update], estimates of the effects of government policy on industrial emissions are lacking.[58]: 28 IEA head Fatih Birol has said that the country has a lot of potential for renewable energy.[59] Some sugar factories, such as some owned by Türkşeker[60] and Konya Seker, burn coal for the
heat needed to make sugar and sometimes to generate electricity.[61] Some industrial companies reach the
Global Reporting Initiative GRI 305 emissions standard.[62]
Iron and steel
The European steel industry has complained that steel imports from Turkey are unfair competition, because they are not subject to a
carbon tax,[63] and alleges that the natural gas used to produce some steel is subsidised.[64] Turkish steel, primarily from
minimills, averages about one tonne of CO2 per tonne of steel produced.[65] Although this average is less polluting than China,[65] three steelworks—
Erdemir,
İsdemir and
Kardemir—use
blast furnaces and thus emit more than those using
electric arc furnaces.[66] The future
Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in the European Green Deal may include a carbon tariff on Turkish steel produced in blast furnaces,[67] but the CBAM could help arc furnaces compete against products such as Chinese steel.[68]
Cement
Turkey is the sixth-largest
cement producer in the world and the largest in Europe.[69] In 2020 Turkey exported 30 million tonnes, worth almost US$1 billion,[69] and was the largest source of EU cement imports.[70] Cement (clinker) production in 2021 emitted 44 Mt CO2, 8% of the country's total GHG.[1]: 155 Climate Trace has estimated the contributions of individual factories, sometimes from kiln heat visible from satellites,[71] and says that Gönen and Silifke cement plants emitted more than 1.5 Mt each in 2022.[72]
Turkey's construction sector contracted at the end of 2018[73] and so used less cement.[74] Cement producers in the EU have to buy
EU carbon credits, and say the CBAM is needed to protect them from unfair competition from Turkish companies as they pay no carbon price.[75] The CBAM could be up to 50% on the cement price.[76]
Other
The offial estimate for 2021
soda ash production was under 1 Mt but the emission factor used in the calculation is confidential.[1]: 190 Climate Trace estimated 2022 at over 3 Mt,[18] but have very low confidence in the accuracy of their estimate.[77]Kazan Soda Elektrik and
Eti Soda have published figures for 2019 and 2021 respectively.
Agriculture and fishing
Agriculture accounted for 72 Mt which was 13% of Turkey's total 2021 GHG, including 61% of its methane emissions and 78% of its
nitrous oxide emissions.[9] These are due primarily to
enteric fermentation,
agricultural soils, and
fertilizer management.[78] Cattle emit almost half of the GHG from agriculture.[1]: 240, 257 - (Total 72 Mt: 27 Mt enteric fermentation 61% of 9 Mt manure management = 32 Mt).
About three quarters of red meat production in Turkey is beef.[79] Turks eat an average of 15 kilograms (33 lb) of
beef per person each year (which is more than the world average[80]), and the country produced 1 million tonnes of beef in 2021.[81] There are about 18 million cattle (including 8 million dairy cattle and a few buffalo), 45 million sheep and 11 million goats in the country: livestock are subsidized.[81] US$411 million worth of cattle were imported in 2020.[82] VAT on meat and dairy is 1% like other "staple foods". Being
ruminants sheep, goats and cattle belch methane. Fertilizers can emit the GHG nitrous oxide, but estimates of the effects of government policy on the agricultural and waste sectors' emissions are lacking.[58]: 28 Production of plastic, such as for in agriculture, may release significant GHG in future.[83] National GHG inventories do not yet include
bottom trawling, as the IPCC has yet to issue accounting guidelines.[84]
Waste
The government says that waste sector contributed 15 Mt (3%) of Turkey's 2021 GHG.[9] However Climate Trace estimates that it was over 145 Mt (almost 20%) in 2022.[85] It is unclear why there is such an enormous difference.
Landfilling is the most common waste-disposal method.[86] Climate Trace estimate
Odayeri (even though it has a
biogas facility[87]) on the European side of Istanbul to be the biggest waste single emitter at over 6 Mt in 2022.[18] Organic waste sent to landfills emits methane, but the country is working to improve sustainable
waste and resource management.[88] One third of organic waste is
composted,[89] but others argue for
incineration.[86]
Mitigation
Turkey's GHG emissions are not in line with the Paris Agreement objective to limit temperature rise to well below 2 °C. According to
Climate Action Tracker, if all government targets were like Turkey's, global warming would exceed 4 °C by the end of the 21st century.[90]
A long-term
climate change mitigation strategy is lacking as of 2023.[91]: 116 The
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) says a faster decarbonisation is needed, and emissions per person per year would need to be cut by more than half to about 2–2.5 t CO2e by 2030.[92]: XXV The government intended to complete its review of long-term (2030 to 2050) policy,[93]: 42 [h] and publish a new National Climate Change Action Plan with sector specific targets and monitoring mechanisms by 2023,[96] but it did not.[97] Turkey argues that as a
developing country it should be exempt from net emission reduction targets, but other countries do not agree.[96]: 59
Unless Turkey's energy policy is changed, European Union (EU) emissions per person are forecast to fall below Turkey's during the 2020s.[92]: 22 Since the EU is Turkey's main trading partner, a comparison with targets in the
European Green Deal is important to help Turkish businesses avoid future EU
carbon tariffs on exports such as steel[98] and cement.[99] Public and private sector working groups discussed the
European Green Deal,[100] and the
Trade Ministry published an action plan in response to its
Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.[101]
Turkey is aiming for
net zero carbon emissions by 2053.[102] But Climate Action Tracker said in 2021 that critical details on scope, target architecture and transparency are missing from the net zero goal.[103] The
World Bank has estimated the cost and benefits, but has suggested government do far more detailed planning.[104] In 2024
Ember said there was no clear plan.[105]: 26
Turkey's Energy Efficiency Action Act, which came into force in 2018, commits nearly US$11 billion to efficiency and could significantly limit emissions.[106] And the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is investing in
climate governance[107] and energy efficiency, for example in smaller companies.[108] In 2021 the government pledged to prepare a new plan for reducing emissions,[109] but as of 2022[update] there is no plan to reduce coal use.[110]
Later in 2021 Istanbul Policy Center, a thinktank which is part of Sabancı University, released a summary of their own plan.[111] The plan says that net zero by 2050 is possible and that the key to decarbonization is increasing the share of solar and wind in electricity generation. It says that CO2 emissions could be reduced by 32% from 2018 to 2030. And that the share of renewable resources other than hydroelectricity in installed power could be increased from 17 per cent in 2018 to 50 per cent in 2030 and 77 per cent in 2050. According to the plan, Turkey could increase the total wind/solar installed power to 35 GW by 2030 by constructing an average of 3 GW of solar and 2.5 GW of wind power plants every year.[112] The plan says that gross CO2 emissions could be reduced to 132 million tons by 2050.[113]
Emissions could be reduced considerably by switching from coal to existing gas-fired power stations:[114] as there is enough generating capacity to allow the decommissioning of all coal-fired power stations and still meet peak energy demand, as long as hydropower as well as gas is used to meet peaks in demand.[115] By the mid-2020s the gas price is forecast to have fallen considerably,[116] as Turkey's production from the Black Sea will be more than enough to meet national demand.[50] However, according to a 2021 study the electricity sector is financially unable to transform itself in response to the CBAM, and "to avoid market failure, the government must step in by designing a general decarbonization program for electricity production in Turkey".[117] A
solar panel factory began production in 2020;[118] and
solar and
wind power are the cheapest generating technologies,[116] but are underdeveloped.[119] Fossil fuel subsidies risk
carbon lock-in, but if they were scrapped wind and solar power could expand faster.[120]: 7 Relying simply on battery storage would be insufficient to decarbonise electricity, as periods of high and low demand last for two to three weeks.[121] Ramping down
nuclear power in Turkey will be technically possible, at times when solar or wind increases or electricity demand drops, but would be expensive because of high fixed costs and lost sales revenue.[122]: 72 However, after upgrading,[123]repowering[124] and adding a small amount of
pumped-storage hydroelectricity,[125] there are enough
hydropower dams in Turkey to provide
dispatchable generation to balance
variable renewable energy, even allowing for more frequent
droughts in Turkey in the future because of climate change.[120]: 7 Solar farms are being co-located with hydropower to maintain generation in case of drought.[126]Geothermal-electric capacity totalled 1.6 GW in 2020 and more is planned, but the lifetime CO2 emissions of some Turkish geothermal power is not yet clear.[127][128] National and international investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency are being made; for example, the EBRD is supporting the installation of
smart meters.[129] Along with cement the electricity sector is forecast to be the hardest hit by the CBAM.[117] According to thinktank Ember building new wind and solar power is cheaper than running existing coal plants which depend on imported coal.[130] But they say that there are obstacles to building utility scale solar plants such as: lack of new capacity for solar power at transformers, a 50-MW cap for any single solar power plant's installed capacity, and large consumers being unable to sign long term
power purchase agreements for new solar installations.[130]
Buildings
Buildings in Turkey are the largest energy consumers, and there are substantial opportunities for energy savings in both new build and renovations.[131] A typical residential building emits almost 50 kgCO2eq/m2/year, mostly due to the energy used by residents.[132] The
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has said that more could be done to improve the energy efficiency of buildings, and that tax incentives offered for this would create jobs.[96]: 62 Turkey was a co-leader of the group discussing
zero-carbon buildings at the
2019 UN Climate Action Summit, and the city of
Eskişehir has pledged to convert all existing buildings to zero emissions by 2050.[133][134] Such energy efficiency improvements can be made in the same programme as increasing resilience to
earthquakes in Turkey.[135] However, in 2020 gas was subsidized.[4]: 18 Increasing the proportion of
passive houses has been suggested,[136] as has adopting some EU building standards.[137]
In rural areas without a piped gas supply,
heat pumps could be an alternative to wood, coal and bottled gas: but buying a heat pump is rare as it is very expensive for householders as there is no subsidy.[138]: 29 However, owners of larger properties such as shopping centres, schools and government buildings have shown more interest.[139]
Direct geothermal heating (not to be confused with heat pumps) installed capacity totaled 3.5 GW thermal (GWt) in 2020, with the potential for 60 GWt, but it is unclear how much is low-carbon.[127] According to a 2020 report commissioned by the environment ministry and the EBRD further research on Turkish geothermal is needed: specifically how to limit carbon dioxide venting to the atmosphere.[140]: 283, 284
There is no data on the
carbon intensity of cement.[141]: 13 Emissions from cement production could be lessened by reducing its
clinker content[142]—for example, by making
Limestone Calcined Clay Cement, which is only half clinker. The second-largest reduction could be made by switching half the fuel from hard coal and
petroleum coke (petcoke) to a mixture of rubber from waste tires,
refuse-derived fuel and
biomass.[143] Although the country has enough of these materials, most cement kilns (there are 54[1]: 156 ) use coal, petcoke or lignite as their primary energy source.[1]: 154 More
cross-laminated timber could be used for building, instead of concrete.[144]
Further decarbonisation of cement production would depend heavily on carbon capture and storage (CCS).[145][146]: 109 Despite Turkey's
earthquake risk, CCS may be technically feasible in a
salt dome near
Lake Tuz[147] or in
Diyarbakır Province.[148] Thinktank
Ember suggest that
rooftop solar should be mandatory on new buildings, and say that installation on apartment block roofs is hindered by bureaucracy.[149]
Although Turkey's ferries (unlike some other countries') are still fossil-fuelled,[156] the world's first all-electric
tugboat began working in Istanbul's harbour in 2020,[157] electric lorries are manufactured,[158] and an electric
excavator is planned for 2022.[159]Eti Mine Works produces small quantities of
lithium carbonate locally, and plans to increase production for use in batteries. A battery factory is planned[160] by Aspilsan, which is part of
Turkey's defence industry,[161] and
Ford Otosan started making
electric vans in 2022.[162] Over a quarter of a million
charging stations are planned by 2030.[163] Building codes are being changed to mandate electric car
charging points in new shopping centres and car parks.[164]
Petrol and diesel taxes are lower than in the neighbouring EU[172]: 17 but higher than in oil-producing countries to the south.[173] The
legality of ridesharing companies is unclear,[174][175] and taxis could be better integrated with public transport.[176] However Istanbul taxi regulations are politically deadlocked.[177] The central government has drafted enabling regulations for low-emission zones,[178] and at least one municipality is considering creating one.[179] According to Shura three-quarters of emissions in the transport sector come from road freight transport.[180] Sales of fossil-fuelled road vehicles will be banned from 2040.[181][182]
Turkey has 23 million hectares of forest covering quarter of the country, though over 40% is
degraded woodland.[195]Turkey's forests are its main
carbon sink and offset 34 Mt of the country's emissions in 2021.[1]: 287 The government said in 2015 that by 2050 "forests are envisioned to stretch across over four-fifths of the country's territory".[196] However warmer and drier air in the south and west may make it difficult to sustain the present forest cover.[197] But, despite regional variations, forests are expected to remain an overall carbon sink.[198] Almost all Turkey's forest land belongs to the state and cannot be privatised. Private
afforestation permits have been issued however, to encourage tree planting in areas where tree density is low.[199]Civil society organizations, such as the
Turkish Foundation for Combating Soil Erosion and the
Foresters' Association of Turkey, are also encouraging reforestation.[200] In 2019, an annual "National Forestation Day" every 11 November was established by President Erdoğan.[201]Junipers have been suggested for reforestation because of their hardiness, but are said to need help to regrow quickly.[202] But, according to
Ege University associate professor Serdar Gökhan Senol, the
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry sometimes replants when it should wait for regrowth instead.[203]
Three-quarters of Turkey's land is deficient in
soil organic matter.[204] This contains
soil organic carbon, which is estimated to total 3.5 billion tonnes at 30 centimetres (12 in) soil depth, with 36 t/ha in agricultural fields.[205] Soil organic carbon has been mapped:[206][205] this is important because carbon emissions from soil are directly related to climate change, but vary according to soil interaction[207]: 107 with low levels of soil organic carbon increasing the risk of
soil erosion.[208] Turkey is a major producer of
marble; it has been suggested that waste from the industry could capture carbon by
calcium looping.[209]
During the late 20th and early 21st centuries, growth of the
Turkish economy, and to a lesser extent population, caused increased emissions from electricity generation,[210]: 10, 11 industry and construction,[211]: 59–62 as described by the
environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis.[212] And from the 1990s to the 2010s they were correlated with electricity generation.[213] But during the 2010s
economic growth and the increase in emissions decoupled somewhat.[96]: 59 Since the 1970s the energy intensity of economic growth has fluctuated around 1kWh per 2011 USD,[214] whereas the carbon intensity of energy has fallen from 300g per kWh to 200g per kWh.[215] In 2018, the government forecast that GHG emissions were expected to increase in parallel with GDP growth over the next decade.[216]: 30 Once economic growth resumes after
the debt crisis that began in 2018 and the country's
COVID-19 recession, energy demand is also expected to grow. Nevertheless, Carbon Tracker says that it will be possible to
decouple economic growth and emissions, by expanding the country's renewable-energy capacity and investing in energy efficiency with a sustainable energy policy.[211]: 63
On average the consumption-based CO2 emissions of one of the richest 10% of people in Turkey is more than double that of someone in the rest of the population,[217] as richer people tend to fly more and buy gasoline-fuelled
SUVs.[218] Nevertheless 2019 studies disagree on whether Turkey's high
income inequality causes higher CO2 emissions.[219][220]
While the government has pledged to buy 30,000 locally made electric cars,[221] there were few explicit green measures in the 2020 package designed to aid recovery from the country's COVID-19 recession. On the contrary the
VAT rate for domestic aviation was cut, and oil and gas were discounted.[222] Almost all the stimulus was detrimental to the environment; according to a 2021 report, only Russia's was less green.[223] Turkey has received climate finance from the
Global Environment Facility, the
Clean Technology Fund, and various bilateral funding, but is not eligible for the
Green Climate Fund because of its status as a
developed country under the UNFCCC.[93]: 43
Worldwide,
marginal abatement cost studies show that improving the energy efficiency of buildings and replacing fossil fuelled power plants with renewables are usually the most cost-effective ways of reducing carbon emissions.[224] A 2017 study concluded that a US$50/tonne carbon price (similar to the 2021 EU price) would reduce emissions by about 20%, mainly by discouraging coal.[225] A more detailed 2020 study said that the electricity sector is key, and that low cost abatement is possible in the building sector.[226] The same study said that low levels of abatement in agriculture would be cheap, but high levels very expensive.[226] A 2021 study by Shura said that energy transition could increase national income by more than 1%, the largest part being wage increases due to higher skilled jobs,[227]: 8 such as in wind and solar power.[227]: 58 According to the study socioeconomic benefits, such as better health and wages, would be three times the financial cost.[227]: 15
Turkey's
carbon emissions are costly, even without carbon tariffs from other countries.[228] The short-term health
co-benefits of climate change mitigation have been estimated at $800 million for Turkey in the year 2028 alone.[46]: 6 As of 2022[update] investment in green energy is far smaller than the country's potential.[110] Academics have estimated that if Turkey and other countries invested in accordance with the
Paris Agreement, Turkey would break even around 2060.[229]: figure 4 A 2023 IMF working paper says that carbon pricing can be designed to support poor people.[230]
Fossil fuel subsidies
According to the OECD,
fossil fuel subsidies in 2019 totalled over 25 billion lira (US$4.4 billion),[231] nearly 1% of GDP.[227]: 74 Economics professor Ebru Voyvoda has criticised growth policies based on the construction and real estate sectors, and said that moving from fossil fuels to electricity is important.[232] According to a 2020 report by the
International Institute for Sustainable Development: "Turkey also lacks transparency and continues to provide support for coal production and fossil fuel use, predominantly by foregoing tax revenue and providing
state-owned enterprise investment."[233] A MWh of electricity from Turkish lignite emits over a tonne of CO2. Some electricity from these power stations is purchased by
the state electricity company at a guaranteed price of US$50–55/MWh until the end of 2027,[93]: 176 despite coal power subsidies being economically irrational.[232] Coal miners' wages are subsidised.[93]: 178
The Petroleum Market Law provides incentives for investors to explore for oil and produce it.[122]: 198 According to the OECD, in 2019 the fuel tax exemption for
naphtha,
petroleum coke and
petroleum bitumen was a subsidy of 6.7 billion lira (US$1.2 billion), the largest of Turkey's fossil fuel subsidies that year.[234] Petcoke is used in cement production.[235] In other countries fossil fuel subsidies have been successfully scrapped by good communication from government, immediate cash transfers to poor people, energy price smoothing and energy transition support for households and firms.[236][237]
Carbon pricing
Boğaziçi University has developed a decision-support tool and
integrated assessment model for Turkey's energy and environmental policy.[238] Over 400 (about 9%) of the world's
voluntary carbon offset projects are in Turkey:[239] mostly wind, hydro, and landfill methane projects.[240][241] As elsewhere wildfires are a threat to forest carbon offsets.[242] The main standards are the
Gold Standard and the
Verified Carbon Standard.[243] Earlier academic assessment suggested a revenue-neutral carbon tax might be best for the Turkish economy,[244] but
carbon emission trading is more likely to be accepted politically,[245] and technical work for a pilot
emissions trading system (ETS) is ongoing.[93]: 48 The 12th Development Plan (2024 to 2028) says that there will be an ETS.[246]: 219 Without a carbon tax or emissions trading, the country is vulnerable to carbon tariffs imposed by the EU,[247] the UK and other
export partners.[248] Turkey received by far the most EU climate-change financing in 2018:[249] also the EBRD is investing in energy efficiency and renewable energy,[250] and has offered to support an equitable transition from coal.[251] Although there is no carbon price, other taxes in 2021 covered 39% of emissions[252]: 10 and were equivalent to a carbon price of 22.50 euros.[252]: 13
The
International Monetary Fund says G20 countries should make their high-emitting companies pay a carbon price, which should rise to $75 per tonne of CO2 by 2030.[253] The OECD recommends carbon pricing for all sectors,[254] but road fuel is currently Turkey's only major carbon pricing.[96]: 60 Taxes meet the social cost of road-transport carbon but not, however, the social cost of the country's air pollution.[255][251] However, all other sectors have a large gap between the actual tax (€6 per tonne of CO2 in 2018) and the tax with this negative
externality; thus emitters do not bear the actual cost of most GHG, violating the
polluter pays principle.[255][251] Annual fossil fuel import cost savings of approximately $17 billion by meeting Paris Agreement goals have been estimated.[131]: 10 Turkish-American economist
Daron Acemoğlu said in 2016 that carbon taxes alone do not generally act fast enough against dirty technologies, but that subsidising research into clean technologies is also necessary.[256]
Everyone has the right to live in a healthy and balanced environment. It is the duty of the State and citizens to improve the natural environment, to protect the environmental health and to prevent environmental pollution.[257]
A similar clause in the constitution of the US state of
Montana has been used to declare laws that support fossil fuels unconstitutional.[258]
However, until production from large gas fields under the Black Sea begins in the mid-2020s, some in Turkey see burning local lignite as essential to lessen the high gas import bill.[259] Likewise, until local production of solar panels[118] and electric vehicles,[260] and mining
lithium for batteries[160] all greatly increase, it is hard to avoid importing a lot of petroleum to make diesel and gasoline.[172]
2000s
The
Justice and Development Party (AK Party), led by
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, was elected to government in 2003 and has been in power almost continuously since then. Turkey ratified the UNFCCC in 2004, but says it is unfair that it is included amongst the
Annex I (developed) countries.[261] When the treaty was signed in 1992 Turkey had much lower emissions per person, and no historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions. So, the
Foreign Ministry argue that Turkey should have been grouped with non-Annex developing countries, which can receive climate finance from the Green Climate Fund.[262] Turkey ratified the
Kyoto Protocol in 2009.[263]
2010s
In a 2011 dispute over air pollution in Turkey, the main opposition
Republican People's Party criticised the government for prioritising fossil fuels.[264] The
Climate Change and Air Management Coordination Board was created to coordinate government departments, and includes three business organisations.[265] The Environment Ministry chairs it, though other ministries have considerable influence over climate change policy. The Energy Ministry has an Environment and Climate Department (responsible for the GHG inventory) and the
Ministry of Treasury and Finance leads on climate financing.[93]: 40
Turkey signed the Paris Agreement in 2016 but did not ratify it.[263] In 2015 Turkey declared its intention to achieve "up to a 21% reduction in GHG emissions from the Business as Usual level by 2030".[262] But because "Business as Usual" was assumed to be such a large increase, the "21% reduction" is an increase of over 7% per year[266] to around double the 2020 level.[267]
In 2019, Ümit Şahin, who teaches climate change at
Sabancı University, said that Turkey saw industrialised Western countries as solely responsible.[268]: 24 While discussing their limited actions on climate change, Turkey and other countries cited the forthcoming 2020
United States withdrawal from the Paris Agreement (not knowing at that time that the US would rejoin early the following year) .[269] Turkey was the 16th largest
emitting country in 2019.[270][i]
During the 2019 UN Climate Action Summit on achieving
carbon neutrality by 2050, Turkey co-led the coalition on the
decarbonization of land transport.[271]Energy Minister Fatih Dönmez said that Turkey planned to increase the share of renewables to two thirds of total electricity generation by 2023. Dönmez expressed Turkey's strong desire to add nuclear power to its
energy mix, with
Turkey's first nuclear power plant, expected to be partially operational by 2023.[272] As of 2019[update], the government aimed to keep the share of coal in the energy portfolio at around the same level in the medium and long term. This was explained, in part, because of Turkey's desire to have a diverse mix of energy sources. Rather than increase imports of gas, it wanted to retain domestic coal, albeit with safeguards to reduce the impact on human health and the environment.[58]: 20 İklim Haber (Climate News) and
KONDA Research and Consultancy found in 2018 that
public opinion on climate change prefers solar and wind power.[273]
Although the transition to clean energy increases employment in Turkey as a whole,[227] for example in wind and solar power[46]: 6 and energy efficiency of buildings,[274] lost jobs may be concentrated in certain locations and sectors.[131]: 48 For example, closing
Şırnak Silopi power station and the coal mines in
Şırnak Province could increase already high unemployment there.[275][276] A 2021 study estimated the mining sector would employ 21 thousand fewer people, 14% of total mining employment in 2018.[227]: 57 The study also forecast job losses in textiles, agriculture and food processing, because such labour-intensive sectors would not be able to keep up with efficiency gains in other sectors.[227]: 13 Because carbon pricing would be
regressive economists say that poor people should be compensated.[5]: 6 Policy for a
just transition from carbon-intensive assets, such as coal, is lacking.[277] Similarly, it is hard for livestock farmers to make a profit,[81] so a sudden removal of subsidies would be an economic shock. But, unlike in neighbouring Greece,[278] there have been no public debates about a just transition.[279] According to former Economy Minister
Kemal Derviş, many people will benefit from the green transition, but the losses will be concentrated on specific groups, making them more visible and politically disruptive.[280]At the municipal level,
Antalya,
Bornova,
Bursa,
Çankaya, Eskişehir Tepebaşı,
Gaziantep,
İzmir,
Kadıköy,
Maltepe,
Nilüfer and
Seferihisar have
sustainable energy and climate plans.[281] A 2021 academic study of local
climate change politics said that "local climate action planning takes place independent from the national efforts yet with a commitment to international agreements" and that better co-ordination between local and national government would help planning for
climate change adaptation.[282] Turkey ratified the Paris Agreement in 2021: according to
Politico the country was persuaded by a 3.2 billion dollar loan from France and Germany for its
energy transition, and Turkey's chief negotiator said the threat of the EU CBAM was a factor.[283]
National Politics
Some suggest that limiting emissions through directives to the state-owned gas and electricity companies would be less effective than a carbon price, but would be more politically acceptable.[284] Turkish citizens are taking
individual and political action on climate change to the streets[285] and online,[286] including children demanding action[287] and petitioning the UN.[288][289]: 29 The Industrial Development Bank of Turkey says that it has implemented a sustainable business model, and sustainability-themed investments have a 74% share of the bank's loan portfolio.[290]Turkey's Green Party is calling for an end to coal burning[270] and the phasing out of all fossil-fuel use by 2050.[291] Electricity generated from lignite is often described by politicians and the media as generated from "local resources" and added to the renewables percentage.[292][293]TRT World calls natural gas "blue gold".
After the 2020/21 droughts, the
Nationalist Movement Party (the smaller party in the governing coalition) said that climate change is a national security issue.[294] The threat of climate change had already been
securitized by Environment Minister Murat Kurum back in 2019.[295] Also following on from the droughts, all parties in parliament, including smaller opposition parties like the
Peoples' Democratic Party and the
Good Party, agreed to set up a Parliamentary Research Commission to combat climate change and drought.[296] A draft climate law, including
emissions trading, was considered in 2021[297] and a revised draft in 2023, but as of 2023[update] there is no emissions trading.[298] In 2023 there was
misinformation about this draft, the draft aims to keep the tariff money within the country by starting
carbon emission trading.[15]
The national energy plan published in 2022 expected 1.7 GW more coal power to be built,[299] but the opposition CHP had already said that no more fossil fuel power plants should be built and that there should be carbon trading.[300] Businesses say the country needs to decarbonize so that money which would otherwise be lost to the CBAM remains in the country: NGOs and academics have such plans, however a February 2022 government-led "Climate Council" of all those groups and others issued over 200 recommendations,[301][302] but not one for coal phase out.[303] European Climate Action Network Turkey complained that civil society is not properly represented in decision making and in particular that there were no organizations such as theirs in the " Emission Reduction Commission" of the Climate Council.[304]
International politics
Murat Kurum has said that global cooperation is key to tackling climate change,[305] and US climate change envoy
John Kerry has said that the top 20 emitting countries should reduce emissions immediately.[306] Turkey and some other member countries say the
Energy Charter Treaty should be changed to help with decarbonization, but because changes must be unanimous this is unlikely to happen.[307]Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) is in discussions with private-sector companies about investment in Black Sea fossil gas.[50] China funded
Emba Hunutlu coal-fired power station started up in 2022.
The government says that, as a developing country having less than 1% responsibility for historical greenhouse gas emissions, Turkey's position under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement is not fair at all.[316] However some academics say that low historical greenhouse gas emissions can only be used as a fairness justification under
international environmental law by
least developed countries and
small island developing states.[317] They say that almost all G20 countries, including Turkey, should reduce their emissions below the 2010 level.[317] Nevertheless, the same academics say that countries with higher historical emissions should reduce emissions more.[317]
The
Turkish Industry and Business Association lobbied for ratification of the Paris Agreement.[119] The non-ratification was used as an argument against approval of
Woodhouse Colliery in the UK, as opponents said much of the coal would be exported to Turkey.[318] In 2021 Turkey again asked to be removed from Annex 1 (developed countries) of the UNFCCC, "in order to make our fight against climate change more effective and to have access to climate finance".[319] Some business people said that Turkey does not need more climate funding in order to meet its current commitments, so should ratify the Paris Agreement and stop building coal power in order to avoid the CBAM.[320][321]Environmental lawyers became more active in the 2020s,[322] but as of 2021[update], the
European Court of Human Rights has not yet decided whether to hear the case of Duarte Agostinho and Others v. several countries including Turkey, brought by children and young adults.[323][324][325] The Paris Agreement was ratified by parliament shortly before the
2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference.[326]
In 2022 the country promised, in its updated first nationally determined contribution(NDC), to cut greenhouse gas emissions 41% compared to business-as-usual by 2030: however this means Turkey's carbon footprint could increase to about 700 Mt by 2030,[327] with emissions peaking by 2038 or before.[3] Because the government says BAU is 1175 Mt CO2eq, whereas
climate activists say that the NDC should have promised an immediate actual reduction.[328] Academics doubt that emissions could be reduced from a 2038 peak to zero by 2053,[327] and say that delaying Turkey's energy transition is more expensive than starting it at once.[329] The 2053 target was reportedly set without consulting the Energy Ministry, and as of 2023 that ministry has not published a decarbonization roadmap.[330]
Although the OECD praised the government's
monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) system and said in 2021 that it covers half of total emissions,[96]: 61 unlike the public sharing of data in the
EU emission trading system, much detailed emissions data in Turkey is not public.[332] Quantitative estimates of the impact of individual government policies on emissions have not been made or are not publicly available;[58]: 20 neither are projections of long-term policy impacts.[58]: 21 An expert review published on 2 April 2024 of Turkey`s GHG report published in 2023 noted that over 50 recommendations made in previous expert reviews had not yet been addressed.[333] Space-based measurements of the signs of emissions has allowed public monitoring of the
megacity of Istanbul and high emitting power plants since the early-2020s.[334][335]
Notes
^Since "national communications" are required every four years, the fifth biennial report and eighth national communication may be combined as one document (as was the case previously).[23]
^Under IPCC guidelines, the energy sector includes fuel for transport.
^The carbon content (
t/
TJ), oxidation factor and CO2emission intensity (t/TJ
NCV), respectively, of lignite burnt in Turkish power stations in 2021 was as follows:[1]: 50 & 51, table 3.5, 3.6, 3.7
The extremely low-quality lignite is explained in detail in
Coal in Turkey. The CO2 emission intensity (or emission factor) shown above is the mass of CO2 emitted for each unit of heat produced by burning a fuel. In contrast, the grid emission intensity is the mass of CO2e produced per unit of electricity supplied to the
electrical grid. Because
thermal power stations generally convert less than half of the heat energy into electrical energy,[36] their numbers for grid emission intensity are much greater than the emission intensity figures shown above.
^62 megatonnes would be emitted annually[42]: 319 if run at the targeted
capacity factor, whereas Turkey's current annual emissions are 506 megatonnes.
By simple arithmetic, 62 megatonnes is more than 10% of 506+62 megatonnes.
^On average, somewhat over a million tonnes of CO2 was emitted for every
TWh of electricity generated in Turkey by coal-fired power stations in 2010.[41]: 177 This power station aims to generate just over 12.5 TWh (gross) per year.[42]: 346 The calculation in the EIA assumes an emission factor of 94.6 tCO2/TJ[42]: 319 Although the average is about 2,200, the
net calorific value of Turkish lignite varies from 1,000 to 6,000 kcal/kg.[1]: 59
^Emissions from international trips are not included in a country's emissions total, but fuel sales for international aviation can be found in Common Reporting Format category 1.A.3.a.1A. Turkey has joined the
Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation.
^National energy plan(PDF) (Report) (in Turkish).
Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. 2022. Mevcut planlanan sahaların rezerv geliştirme sürecinde karşılaşılan sorunlar ve güçlükler dikkate alındığında, 2030 yılına kadar 1,7 GW yerli kömür santralinin sisteme dahil olacağı öngörülmüştür.
^"45.000 ton kömür alacak" [They will buy 45,000 tonnes of coal]. Enerji Ekonomisi (in Turkish). 3 July 2018.
Archived from the original on 23 March 2019. Retrieved 23 March 2019.
^Hoştut, Sibel; Deren van het Hof, Seçil (1 January 2020). "Greenhouse gas emissions disclosure: comparing headquarters and local subsidiaries". Social Responsibility Journal. 16 (6): 899–915.
doi:
10.1108/SRJ-11-2019-0377.
ISSN1747-1117.
S2CID219069970.
^
abDifiglio, Prof.Carmine; Güray, BoraŞekip; Merdan, Ersin (November 2020).
Turkey Energy Outlook. iicec.sabanciuniv.edu (Technical report). Sabanci University Istanbul International Center for Energy and Climate (IICEC).
ISBN978-605-70031-9-5.
^Bayazıt, Yıldırım; Bakış, Recep; Koç, Cengiz (19 February 2021). "A study on transformation of multi-purpose dams into pumped storage hydroelectric power plants by using GIS model". International Journal of Green Energy. 18 (3): 308–318.
doi:
10.1080/15435075.2020.1865362.
ISSN1543-5075.
S2CID230065603.
^"Sıfır Enerji ve Pasif Ev Derneği" [Zero energy and passive house association]. Sıfır Enerji ve Pasif Ev Derneği – SEPEV (in Turkish).
Archived from the original on 3 December 2020. Retrieved 7 March 2021.
^Stantec Mühendislik ve Müşavirlik Ltd.Şti (December 2020).
Cumulative Impact Assessment of Geothermal Resources in Turkey. www.jeotermaletki.com (Report). Ministry of Environment and Urbanization of the Republic of Turkey and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
^Everest, Bengü (11 May 2020). "Farmers' adaptation to climate-smart agriculture (CSA) in NW Turkey". Environment, Development and Sustainability. 23 (3): 4215–4235.
doi:
10.1007/s10668-020-00767-1.
ISSN1573-2975.
S2CID218573439.
^Yücedağ, Cengiz; Ayan, Sezgin; Farhat, Perla; Özel, Halil Barış (2021). "Juniperus L. for Restoration of Degraded Forest Lands in Turkey". South-east European Forestry. 12 (1).
doi:10.15177/seefor.21-01 (inactive 12 April 2024).{{
cite journal}}: CS1 maint: DOI inactive as of April 2024 (
link)
^"Carbon Markets". turkishcarbonmarket.com.
Archived from the original on 31 March 2019. Retrieved 26 October 2020.
^Bavbek, Gökşin (October 2016).
"Assessing the Potential Effects of a Carbon Tax in Turkey"(PDF). Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM) Energy and Climate Change Climate Action Paper (6).
Archived(PDF) from the original on 2 October 2018. Retrieved 24 February 2019.
^Climate Action Tracker, Turkey.
"Turkey". Climate Action Tracker. Climate Action Tracker.
Archived from the original on 14 June 2018. Retrieved 30 November 2020.
^Şahin, Ümit; Türkkan, Seçil (January 2019).
"Turkey's Climate Policies Have Reached a Deadlock: It Takes Courage to Resolve It"(PDF). saha. Vol. Special Issue 2. pp. 24–30.
ISSN2149-7885. According to him, Turkey's problem is not that it doesn't take climate change seriously, but that it downplays its share in creating the problem and sees industrialized Western countries as solely responsible
^Peker, Ender; Ataöv, Anlı (2021). "Barriers to Implementing Local Climate Action Plans in Turkey: Searching for a Potential Way Out". In Peker, Ender; Ataöv, Anlı (eds.). Governance of Climate Responsive Cities. The Urban Book Series. Cham: Springer International Publishing. pp. 21–42.
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ISBN978-3-030-73399-5.
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