DescriptionAustin-Round Rock projected COVID-19 curves.jpg
English: Caption from Emerging Infectious Diseases:
Projected COVID-19 healthcare demand and cumulative deaths in Austin–Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area, Texas, USA. Graphs show simulation results across multiple levels of social distancing, assuming a basic reproductive number of 2.2 with a 4-day epidemic doubling time. Extensive social distancing is expected to substantially reduce the burden of COVID-19 A) hospitalizations, B) patients requiring ICU care, C) patients requiring mechanical ventilation, and D) cumulative deaths. Red lines indicate projected COVID-19 transmission assuming no interventions under the parameters given in Table A1. Blue lines indicate increasing levels of social distancing interventions, from light to dark: school closures plus social distancing interventions that reduce nonhousehold contacts by either 0%, 50%, 75%, or 90%. Lines and shading indicate medians and inner 95% ranges of values across 100 stochastic simulations. Gray shaded region indicates estimated surge capacity for COVID-19 patients in the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area as of March 28, 2020, which is calculated on the basis of 80% of the total 4,299 hospital beds, 90% of the total 755 ICU beds, and 755 mechanical ventilators. COVID-19, coronavirus disease; ICU, intensive care unit.
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Wang X, Pasco RF, Du Z, Petty M, Fox SJ, Galvani AP, et al. Impact of social distancing measures on coronavirus disease healthcare demand, central Texas, USA. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Oct.
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Wang X, Pasco RF, Du Z, Petty M, Fox SJ, Galvani AP, et al.
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