"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" (sometimes shortened to ECREE),[1] also known as the Sagan standard, is an
aphorism popularized by science communicator
Carl Sagan. He used the phrase in his 1979 book Broca's Brain and the 1980 television program Cosmos. It has been described as fundamental to the
scientific method and is regarded as encapsulating the basic principles of
scientific skepticism.
The concept is similar to
Occam's razor in that both
heuristics prefer simpler explanations of a phenomenon to more complicated ones. In application, there is some ambiguity regarding when evidence is deemed sufficiently "extraordinary". It is often invoked to challenge data and scientific findings, or to criticize pseudoscientific claims. Some critics have argued that the standard can suppress innovation and affirm
confirmation biases.
Philosopher
David Hume characterized the principle in his 1748 essay "
Of Miracles". Similar statements were made by figures such as
Thomas Jefferson in 1808,
Pierre-Simon Laplace in 1814, and
Théodore Flournoy in 1899. The formulation "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" was used a year prior to Sagan, by scientific skeptic
Marcello Truzzi.
Critics state that it is impossible to
objectively define the term “extraordinary.” and that “measures of ‘extraordinary evidence’ are completely reliant on subjective evaluation. Ambiguity in what constitutes “extraordinary” has led to misuse of the
aphorism, and it's frequently invoked to discredit research dealing with
scientific anomalies or any claim that falls outside the mainstream.[2][3]
Application
An interesting debate has gone on within the [
Federal Communications Commission] between those who think that all doctrines that smell of
pseudoscience should be combated and those who believe that each issue should be judged on its own merits, but that the
burden of proof should fall squarely on those who make the proposals. I find myself very much in the latter camp. I believe that the extraordinary should certainly be pursued. But extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
The concept is related to
Occam's razor as, according to such a
heuristic, simpler explanations are preferred to more complicated ones. Only in situations where extraordinary evidence exists would an extraordinary claim be the simplest explanation.[9] It appears in
hypothesis testing where the hypothesis that there is no evidence for the proposed phenomenon, what is known as the "
null hypothesis", is preferred. The formal argument involves assigning a stronger
Bayesian prior to the acceptance of the null hypothesis as opposed to its rejection.[15]
Origin and precursors
In his 1748 essay "
Of Miracles", philosopher
David Hume wrote that if "the fact ... partakes of the extraordinary and the marvellous ... the evidence ... received a diminution, greater or less, in proportion as the fact is more or less unusual".[16] Deming concluded that this was the first complete elucidation of the principle. Unlike Sagan, Hume defined the nature of "extraordinary": he wrote that it was a large magnitude of evidence.[16][17]
Scientific skeptic
Marcello Truzzi used the formulation "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" in an article published by Parapsychology Review in 1975,[18] as well as in a Zetetic Scholar article in 1978.[21] Two 1978 articles quoted physicist
Philip Abelson—then the editor of the journal Science—using the same phrasing as Truzzi.[22][23]
Science communicator
Carl Sagan did not describe any concrete or quantitative parameters as to what constitutes "extraordinary evidence", which raises the issue of whether the standard can be applied objectively.[7][24][26] Academic
David Deming notes that it would be "impossible to base all rational thought and scientific methodology on an aphorism whose meaning is entirely subjective". He instead argues that "extraordinary evidence" should be regarded as a sufficient amount of evidence rather than evidence deemed of extraordinary quality.[27] Tressoldi noted that the threshold of evidence is typically decided through consensus. This problem is less apparent in clinical medicine and psychology where statistical results can establish the
strength of evidence.[7]
Deming also noted that the standard can "suppress innovation and maintain orthodoxy".[27] Others, like
Etzel Cardeña, have noted that many scientific discoveries that spurred
paradigm shifts were initially deemed "extraordinary" and likely would not have been so widely accepted if extraordinary evidence were required.[28][29] Uniform rejection of extraordinary claims could affirm
confirmation biases in subfields.[29] Additionally, there are concerns that, when inconsistently applied, the standard exacerbates
racial and gender biases.[30] Psychologist
Richard Shiffrin has argued that the standard should not be used to bar research from publication but to ascertain what is the best explanation for a phenomenon.[31] Conversely, mathematical psychologist
Eric-Jan Wagenmakers stated that extraordinary claims are often false and their publication "pollutes the literature".[32] To qualify the publication of such claims, psychologist Suyog Chandramouli has suggested the inclusion of peer reviewers' opinions on their plausibility or an attached curation of post-publication peer evaluations.[29]
Cognitive scientist and
AI researcher
Ben Goertzel believes that the phrase is utilized as a "
rhetorical meme" without critical thought. Philosopher
Theodore Schick argued that "extraordinary claims do not require extraordinary evidence" if they provide the most adequate explanation.[11] Moreover, theists and Christian apologists like
William Lane Craig have argued that it is unfair to apply the standard to
religious miracles as other improbable claims are often accepted based on limited testimonial evidence, such as an individual claiming that they won the lottery.[33][34]
Rao, K.R. (1978).
"Psi: Its Place in Nature". Journal of Parapsychology. 42 (4): 276–303.
Archived from the original on September 4, 2023. Retrieved September 5, 2023.