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2018 United States Senate election in Utah

←  2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout74.15% Increase
 
Nominee Mitt Romney Jenny Wilson
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 665,215 328,541
Percentage 62.59% 30.91%

Romney:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Wilson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
     No data

U.S. senator before election

Orrin Hatch
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mitt Romney
Republican

The 2018 United States Senate election in Utah took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Utah, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries took place on June 26. [1]

Incumbent Republican senator Orrin Hatch announced in January 2018 that he would retire and not seek reelection to an eighth term, making this the first open seat U.S. Senate election in Utah since 1992 and the first in this seat since 1905. The general election was won by Mitt Romney, who had been the Republican nominee for president in 2012 and previously was the 70th Governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007. Romney became only the third person in American history to be elected governor and U.S. senator in different states, and the first former major party presidential nominee to run for a new office since Walter Mondale in 2002. [2]

Background

Process

Utah's 2018 U.S. Senate candidates had dual routes toward placement on the primary election ballot: (1) eligibility via win or second-place showings at a convention of delegates selected from party local caucuses; and/or (2) eligibility via obtaining sufficient petition signatures.

Taking the traditional route, the top two candidates for the U.S. Senate at any of the party state conventions (to be held this year the latter part of April) will be placed on the June 26 primary election ballot. Also, any candidate who collects 28,000 ballot-access petition signatures will be placed on the primary ballot.

If no competitor will have achieved the above-mentioned alternate access to the primary ballot through collected signatures and a convention winner had achieved sixty-percent of delegate votes, this candidate straightaway receives his or her party's nomination solely via the older-style caucuses-convention system. Otherwise, a candidate will be nominated through receiving a plurality of votes in the primary election and thereby advance to the November general election.

Incumbent Orrin Hatch did not seek reelection. [3]

Hatch to retire

Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Orrin Hatch was reelected to a seventh term in 2012. During his 2012 reelection campaign, Hatch had pledged that if he were elected that it would be his last term. [4] Hatch won his first election in 1976 in part by criticizing the incumbent's 18-year tenure. Hatch initially announced a re-election campaign on March 9, 2017, [5] [6] [7] [8] though he also said at that time that he might withdraw from the race if Mitt Romney decided to run. [9] An August 19–21, 2016, poll conducted by Public Policy Polling found only 19% of voters wanted Hatch to run in 2018, while 71% wanted him to retire. [10] On October 27, 2017, Hatch reportedly told friends privately that he was going to retire in 2019 [11] and on January 2, 2018, made a public announcement of his plans to retire at the end of his current term in January 2019. [3]

Republican primary

Romney campaigning
Kennedy campaigning
People voting in the Republican primary

Convention

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary election

Eliminated at Convention

  • Loy Brunson
  • Alicia Colvin [14]
  • Stoney Fonua, tax accountant [14]
  • Chris Forbush, attorney and candidate for the Nevada State Assembly in 2016 [15]
  • Jeremy Friedbaum [14]
  • Timothy Adrian Jimenez, engineer [16]
  • Joshua Lee
  • Larry Michael Meyers, attorney [17]
  • Gayle Painter [14]
  • Samuel Parker [14]

Declined

Endorsements

Larry Meyers (eliminated at convention)
Notable individuals

Results

State Republican Convention results, 2018
Candidate First ballot Pct. Second ballot Pct.
Mike Kennedy 1,354 40.69% 1,642 50.88%
Mitt Romney 1,539 46.24% 1,585 49.12%
Loy Brunson 4 0.12% Eliminated
Alicia Colvin 29 0.87% Eliminated
Stoney Fonua 7 0.21% Eliminated
Chris Forbush 0 0% Eliminated
Timothy Jiminez 100 3.01% Eliminated
Joshua Lee 2 0.06% Eliminated
Larry Meyers 163 4.90% Eliminated
Gayle Painter 0 0% Eliminated
Samuel Parker 122 3.67% Eliminated
Total 3,328 100.00% 3,227 100.00%

Primary

Debates

Host
network
Date Link(s) Participants
Mitt
Romney
Mike
Kennedy
KBYU-TV May 29, 2018 [26] Invited Invited

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
Kennedy
Mitt
Romney
Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates June 11–18, 2018 356 ± 5.2% 23% 65% 12%
Dan Jones & Associates May 15–25, 2018 295 ± 5.7% 24% 67% 9%
Hypothetical polling
with Orrin Hatch
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Orrin
Hatch
Jon
Huntsman Jr.
Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates January 9–16, 2017 605 ± 4.0% 21% 62% 16%

Endorsements

Mitt Romney
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
Statewide Officeholders
Individuals
Newspapers and Magazines
Mike Kennedy
State Legislators
Individuals

Results

Results by county:
Romney
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
Kennedy
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results [54]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mitt Romney 240,021 71.27%
Republican Mike Kennedy 96,771 28.73%
Total votes 336,792 100%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Eliminated at Convention

  • Mitchell Kent Vice, businessman [56]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Jenny Wilson
U.S. Representatives
Statewide & Local Politicians
Individuals
Mitchell Vice

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Declared

  • Craig Bowden, veteran and businessman [66]

Constitution Party

Candidates

Declared

Independent American Party

Candidates

Declared

General election

Candidates

  • Ryan Daniel Jackson (I, write-in)
  • Abe Korb (I, write-in) [67]
  • Caleb Dan Reeve (I, write-in) [67]

Debates

Date Host Moderator Link(s) Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Mitt
Romney
Jenny
Wilson
October 9, 2018 Utah Debate Commission Bruce Lindsay Video P P

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report [69] Safe R October 26, 2018
Inside Elections [70] Safe R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [71] Safe R November 5, 2018
Fox News [72] Likely R July 9, 2018
CNN [73] Safe R July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics [74] Safe R November 5, 2018

^Highest rating given

Endorsements

Mitt Romney (R)
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
Statewide Officeholders
State Legislators
Individuals
Newspapers and Magazines
Jenny Wilson (D)
U.S. Representatives
Statewide & Local Politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mitt
Romney (R)
Jenny
Wilson (D)
Other Undecided
University of Utah October 3–9, 2018 607 ± 4.0% 59% 23% 8% 10%
Dan Jones & Associates August 22–31, 2018 809 ± 3.4% 55% 29% 8% [79] 7%
Lighthouse Research August 11–27, 2018 2,400 59% 19% 9% [80] 14%
University of Utah June 11–18, 2018 654 ± 3.9% 58% 20% 21%
Dan Jones & Associates January 15–18, 2018 803 ± 3.5% 64% 19% 12%
Dan Jones & Associates November 16–21, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 72% 21% 7%
Dan Jones & Associates August 30 – September 5, 2017 [note 1] 608 ± 4.0% 64% 26% 10%

Notes

  1. ^ The party affiliations of candidates were not described in the question wording as a result of an oversight by the pollster.
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mitt
Romney (R)
Jenny
Wilson (D)
Craig
Bowden (L)
Dan
McCay (R)
Mitchell
Vice (D)
Larry
Meyers (R)
Alicia
Colvin (R)
Jay
Hyatt (R)
L'Capi
Titus (R)
Timothy
Jimenez (R)
Other Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates February 9–16, 2018 609 ± 4.0% 60% 14% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 14%
with Mike Kennedy
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
Kennedy (R)
Jenny
Wilson (D)
Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates June 11–18, 2018 654 ± 3.9% 43% 28% 29%
with Orrin Hatch
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Orrin
Hatch (R)
Jenny
Wilson (D)
Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates November 16–21, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 50% 35% 15%
Dan Jones & Associates August 30 – September 5, 2017 608 ± 4.0% 34% 45% 21%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Orrin
Hatch (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Generic
Democrat
Other Undecided
JMC Analytics March 18–March 20, 2017 625 ± 3.9% 29% 33% 11% 10% 17%
with Chris Stewart
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Chris
Stewart (R)
Jenny
Wilson (D)
Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates August 30 – September 5, 2017 608 ± 4.0% 34% 30% 36%
with Matt Holland
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Matt
Holland (R)
Jenny
Wilson (D)
Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates August 30 – September 5, 2017 608 ± 4.0% 23% 30% 47%

Results

United States Senate general election in Utah, 2018 [81]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mitt Romney 665,215 62.59% -2.72%
Democratic Jenny Wilson 328,541 30.91% +0.93%
Constitution Tim Aalders 28,774 2.71% -0.46%
Libertarian Craig Bowden 27,607 2.60% N/A
Independent American Reed McCandless 12,708 1.20% N/A
Write-in 52 <0.01% N/A
Total votes 1,062,897 100% N/A
Republican hold
State Senate Districts Results
State House Districts Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

References

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  2. ^ "3 decades of presidential losers: Where are they now?". theweek.com. December 26, 2012. Retrieved September 27, 2020.
  3. ^ a b Martin, Jonathan (January 2, 2018). "Orrin Hatch to Retire from Senate, Opening Path for Mitt Romney". The New York Times. Retrieved January 2, 2018.
  4. ^ Lederman, Josh (March 14, 2012). "Hatch will retire in 2018 if he wins reelection". The Hill. Retrieved October 20, 2016.
  5. ^ Romboy, Dennis (November 6, 2014). "Sen. Orrin Hatch leaves door ajar for run in 2018". Deseret News. Retrieved October 20, 2016.
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  9. ^ Prignano, Christina (March 31, 2017). "Utah Senator says he may forgo '18 run if Mitt Romney runs for his seat". The Boston Globe. Retrieved April 2, 2017.
  10. ^ Jensen, Tom (August 24, 2016). "Utah Ready for Hatch to Move On; More Progressive Than You Might Think". Public Policy Polling. Retrieved October 20, 2016.
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  44. ^ a b McMullin, Evan. "Thank you for your service to our state and country, Senator Hatch. In this seat, we must have a leader prepared to meet the challenges of our day and our future. I hope that leader will be @MittRomney".
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  62. ^ a b Meng, Grace. ".@JennyWilsonUT is fighting to bring honest, fair, and results-focused leadership to Utah, and I can't wait to watch her ride the #BlueWave2018 to victory in November!".
  63. ^ a b Escamilla, Luz. "Excited for @UtahDemocrats Caucus at Rose Park Elementary and proud to be a surrogate for our next US Senator @JennyWilsonUT".
  64. ^ UT, Jenny Wilson for. "Thank you for your support, @IronStache! 2018 is going to be a great year".
  65. ^ "Mitchell Vice for United States Senate – Every American Thriving by Reinventing Politics". votevice.com.
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  79. ^ Tim Aalders (C) with 4%, Reed McCandless (IA) and Craig Bowden (L) with 2%
  80. ^ Craig Bowden (L) and Reed McCandless (IA) with 3%, Tim Aalders (C) with 2%, other with 1%
  81. ^ "United States Senate general election in Utah, 2018" (PDF). Office of the Utah Lieutenant Governor. Retrieved June 6, 2019.

External links

Official campaign websites