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2012 Missouri gubernatorial election

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Nominee Jay Nixon Dave Spence
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,494,056 1,160,265
Percentage 54.77% 42.53%

Nixon:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90%
Spence:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

Governor before election

Jay Nixon
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jay Nixon
Democratic

The 2012 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Missouri. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Nixon won re-election against the Republican nominee, businessman Dave Spence, despite incumbent President Barack Obama losing Missouri on the same day to Republican nominee Mitt Romney. As of 2024, this is the last time a Democrat won the governorship of Missouri to date. This is also the last time that a gubernatorial nominee and a lieutenant gubernatorial nominee of different opposite political parties were elected governor and lieutenant governor in Missouri to date as well.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

The Democratic primary was held on August 8, 2012.

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jay Nixon (incumbent) 269,865 86.0%
Democratic William Campbell 25,721 8.2%
Democratic Clay Thunderhawk 18,228 5.8%
Total votes 313,814 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Polling

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Randles
Fred
Sauer
Dave
Spence
John
Weiler
Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 4–5, 2012 590 ± 4.0% 15% 12% 42% 3% 29%
Mason-Dixon July 23–25, 2012 400 ± 5.0% 15% 1% 41% 3% 40%
Public Policy Polling May 24–27, 2012 430 ± 4.7% 11% 4% 32% 1% 43%
Public Policy Polling January 27–29, 2012 574 ± 4.1% 15% 11% 74%

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dave Spence 333,578 59.9%
Republican Bill Randles 90,651 16.3%
Republican Fred Sauer 83,695 15.0%
Republican John Weiler 49,006 8.8%
Total votes 556,930 100.0%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Denied ballot access

  • Leonard Steinman [1]

Results

Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Jim Higgins 2,500 100.0%
Total votes 2,500 100.0%

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report [4] Lean D November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [5] Likely D November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [6] Likely D November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [7] Lean D November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Nixon (D)
Dave
Spence (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 2–3, 2012 835 ± 3.4% 53% 45% 2%
SurveyUSA October 28–November 3, 2012 589 ± 4.1% 48% 39% 5% 8%
Mason-Dixon October 23–25, 2012 625 ± 4% 48% 42% 9%
Public Policy Polling October 19–21, 2012 582 ± 4.1% 51% 40% 8%
Public Policy Polling October 1–3, 2012 700 ± 3.7% 54% 35% 12%
Public Policy Polling August 20, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 46% 37% 16%
Survey USA August 9–12, 2012 585 ± 4.1% 51% 37% 5% 6%
Chilenski Strategies August 8, 2012 663 ± 3.8% 53% 39% 9%
Mason-Dixon July 23–25, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 48% 39% 13%
Public Policy Polling May 24–27, 2012 602 ± 4.0% 45% 34% 21%
Public Policy Polling January 27–29, 2012 582 ± 4.1% 47% 27% 26%
Hypothetical polling
Republican primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Peter
Kinder
Bill
Randles
Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 34% 14% 53%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Peter
Kinder
Someone
else
Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 22% 35% 43%
General election
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Nixon (D)
Bill
Randles (R)
Other Undecided
Mason-Dixon July 23–25, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 50% 35% 15%
Public Policy Polling May 24–27, 2012 602 ± 4.0% 46% 32% 22%
Public Policy Polling January 27–29, 2012 582 ± 4.1% 47% 29% 24%
Public Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011 632 ± 3.9% 45% 24% 30%
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Nixon (D)
Matt
Blunt (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011 632 ± 3.9% 50% 37% 13%
Public Policy Polling April 28-May 1, 2011 555 ± 3.9% 48% 38% 13%
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Nixon (D)
John
Danforth (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011 632 ± 3.9% 39% 45% 17%
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Nixon (D)
Kenny
Hulshof (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 28-May 1, 2011 555 ± 3.9% 51% 34% 15%
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Nixon (D)
Peter
Kinder (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011 632 ± 3.9% 50% 31% 18%
Public Policy Polling April 28-May 1, 2011 555 ± 3.9% 48% 34% 18%
Public Policy Polling March 3–6, 2011 612 ± 4.0% 45% 38% 17%
Public Policy Polling Nov. 29-December 1, 2010 515 ± 4.3% 47% 39% 14%
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Nixon (D)
Sarah
Steelman (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling Nov. 29-December 1, 2010 515 ± 4.3% 46% 35% 19%
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Nixon (D)
Jim
Talent (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011 632 ± 3.9% 47% 38% 14%

Results

Nixon won by a comfortable 12.3% margin, though this was somewhat closer than his 2008 victory. Even with President Barack Obama losing the state by a nine-point margin, Nixon and Senator Claire McCaskill both won reelection easily. Like his Senatorial colleague, Nixon was able to get a huge number of votes from rural areas. Both Nixon and McCaskill were declared the winners of their respective races even before the known Democratic strongholds of St. Louis and Kansas City came in.

Missouri gubernatorial election, 2012 [8]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jay Nixon (incumbent) 1,494,056 54.77% -3.63%
Republican Dave Spence 1,160,265 42.53% +3.04%
Libertarian Jim Higgins 73,509 2.70% +1.59%
Write-in 53 0.00% 0.00%
Total votes 2,727,883 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Nixon won 5 of 8 congressional districts. [9]

District Nixon Spence Representative
1st 81.38% 13.21% Lacy Clay
2nd 50.67% 47.37% Todd Akin ( 112th Congress)
Ann Wagner ( 113th Congress)
3rd 48.20% 49.08% Russ Carnahan ( 112th Congress)
Blaine Luetkemeyer ( 113th Congress)
4th 49.16% 47.46% Vicky Hartzler
5th 66.00% 31.20% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 50.09% 46.96% Sam Graves
7th 43.75% 53.39% Billy Long
8th 48.27% 49.06% Jo Ann Emerson

See also

References

  1. ^ a b c d e f g Redden, Susan (April 2, 2012). "Susan Redden: Candidates for governor, lieutenant governor total 23". The Joplin Globe. Retrieved May 25, 2012.
  2. ^ "Gov. Nixon confirms he will seek re-election". Associated Press. December 16, 2010. Archived from the original on July 29, 2012. Retrieved December 16, 2010.
  3. ^ "Governor candidate Randles: Voters reject 'next guy in line' philosophy". August 25, 2011.
  4. ^ "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  5. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  6. ^ "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  7. ^ "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  8. ^ "State of Missouri - Election Night Results".
  9. ^ "Daily Kos".

External links

  • Elections from the Missouri Secretary of State
Campaign sites (Archived)