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2006 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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The 2006 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 7, 2006, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and three of the four inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. These elections took place halfway through the second term of Republican President George W. Bush. The winners served in the 110th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2000 United States census. On Election Day, Republicans had held a House majority since January 1995 as a result of the 2006 elections.

Election ratings

The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included should be considered safe for the incumbent's party.

District CPVI Incumbent Previous
result
Cook
November 6, 2006 [1]
Rothenberg
November 6, 2006 [2]
Sabato
November 6, 2006 [3]
RCP
November 6, 2006 [4]
CQ Politics
November 7, 2006 [5]
Winner
Arizona 1 R+2 Rick Renzi (R) 58.6% R Tossup Tilt R Tilt R Lean R Tossup Rick Renzi (R)
Arizona 5 R+4 J. D. Hayworth (R) 59.5% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Tossup Tossup Harry Mitchell (D)
Arizona 8 R+1 Jim Kolbe (R) (retiring) 60.4% R Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Gabby Giffords (D)
California 4 R+11 John Doolittle (R) 65.4% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R John Doolittle (R)
California 11 R+3 Richard Pombo (R) 61.3% R Tossup Tossup Tilt D (flip) Tossup Lean R Jerry McNerney (D)
California 50 R+5 Brian Bilbray (R) 49.3% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Safe R Lean R Brian Bilbray (R)
Colorado 3 R+6 John Salazar (D) 50.5% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D John Salazar (D)
Colorado 4 R+9 Marilyn Musgrave (R) 51.0% R Tossup Tilt R Tilt D (flip) Lean R Lean R Marilyn Musgrave (R)
Colorado 5 R+16 Joel Hefley (R) (retiring) 70.6% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Safe R Likely R Doug Lamborn (R)
Colorado 6 R+10 Tom Tancredo (R) 59.7% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Tom Tancredo (R)
Colorado 7 D+2 Bob Beauprez (R) (retiring) [a] 54.7% R Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Ed Perlmutter (D)
Connecticut 2 D+8 Rob Simmons (R) 54.2% R Tossup Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean R Lean R Joe Courtney (D)
Connecticut 4 D+5 Chris Shays (R) 52.4% R Tossup Tossup Tilt D (flip) Tossup Tossup Chris Shays (R)
Connecticut 5 D+4 Nancy Johnson (R) 59.8% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Tossup Tossup Chris Murphy (D)
Florida 8 R+3 Ric Keller (R) 60.5% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Ric Keller (R)
Florida 9 R+4 Michael Bilirakis (R) 100% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Gus Bilirakis (R)
Florida 13 R+4 Katherine Harris (R) (retiring) [b] 55.3% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Vern Buchanan (R)
Florida 16 R+2 Vacant [c] 68.0% R Tossup Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tim Mahoney (D)
Florida 22 D+4 Clay Shaw (R) 62.9% R Tossup Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean R Tossup Ron Klein (D)
Georgia 8 R+8 Jim Marshall (D) 62.9% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Tossup Lean D Jim Marshall (D)
Georgia 12 D+2 John Barrow (D) 51.8% D Likely D Tilt D Tilt D Tossup Lean D John Barrow (D)
Idaho 1 R+19 Butch Otter (R) (retiring) [a] 69.5% R Tossup Tilt R Tilt D (flip) Lean R Lean R Bill Sali (R)
Illinois 6 R+3 Henry Hyde (R) (retiring) 55.8% R Tossup Tossup Tilt D (flip) Tossup Tossup Peter Roskam (R)
Illinois 8 R+5 Melissa Bean (D) 51.7% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Lean D Lean D Melissa Bean (D)
Illinois 10 D+4 Mark Kirk (R) 64.1% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Mark Kirk (R)
Illinois 17 D+5 Lane Evans (D) (retiring) 60.7% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Phil Hare (D)
Indiana 2 R+4 Chris Chocola (R) 54.2% R Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Joe Donnelly (D)
Indiana 3 R+16 Mark Souder (R) 69.2% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Mark Souder (R)
Indiana 7 D+9 Julia Carson (D) 54.3% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Lean D Likely D Julia Carson (D)
Indiana 8 R+9 John Hostettler (R) 53.4% R Tossup Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Brad Ellsworth (D)
Indiana 9 R+7 Mike Sodrel (R) 49.4% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Tossup Tossup Baron Hill (D)
Iowa 1 D+5 Jim Nussle (R) (retiring) [a] 55.2% R Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Bruce Braley (D)
Iowa 2 D+7 Jim Leach (R) 58.9% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Dave Loebsack (D)
Iowa 3 D+1 Leonard Boswell (D) 55.2% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Leonard Boswell (D)
Kansas 2 R+7 Jim Ryun (R) 56.1% R Tossup Tossup Tilt R Safe R Likely R Nancy Boyda (D)
Kansas 3 R+4 Dennis Moore (D) 54.8% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Dennis Moore (D)
Kentucky 2 R+13 Ron Lewis (R) 67.9% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Safe R Lean R Ron Lewis (R)
Kentucky 3 D+2 Anne Northup (R) 60.3% R Tossup Tilt R Tilt R Tossup Lean R John Yarmuth (D)
Kentucky 4 R+12 Geoff Davis (R) 54.4% R Lean R Tilt R Tilt D (flip) Lean R Lean R Geoff Davis (R)
Louisiana 2 D+28 William Jefferson (D) 79.0% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D William Jefferson (D)
Louisiana 3 R+5 Charlie Melançon (D) 50.2% D Lean D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Charlie Melançon (D)
Louisiana 7 R+7 Charles Boustany (R) 55.0% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Charles Boustany (R)
Maryland 3 D+7 Ben Cardin (D) (retiring) [b] 63.4% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D John Sarbanes (D)
Maryland 6 R+13 Roscoe Bartlett (R) 67.5% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Roscoe Bartlett (R)
Michigan 7 R+2 Joe Schwarz (R) (lost renomination) 58.4% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Tim Walberg (R)
Michigan 8 R+2 Mike Rogers (R) 61.1% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Mike Rogers (R)
Minnesota 1 R+1 Gil Gutknecht (R) 59.6% R Tossup Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Tim Walz (D)
Minnesota 2 R+3 John Kline (R) 56.4% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R John Kline (R)
Minnesota 6 R+5 Mark Kennedy (R) (retiring) [b] 54.0% R Tossup Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Michele Bachmann (R)
Nebraska 1 R+11 Jeff Fortenberry (R) 54.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Lean R Jeff Fortenberry (R)
Nebraska 3 R+24 Tom Osborne (R) (retiring) [a] 87.5% R Lean R Likely R Tilt R Safe R Lean R Adrian Smith (R)
Nevada 2 R+8 Jim Gibbons (R) (retiring) [a] 66.5% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Dean Heller (R)
Nevada 3 D+1 Jon Porter (R) 54.5% R Tossup Tilt R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Jon Porter (R)
New Hampshire 1 Even Jeb Bradley (R) 63.4% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Carol Shea-Porter (D)
New Hampshire 2 D+3 Charles Bass (R) 58.3% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Tossup Tossup Paul Hodes (D)
New Jersey 5 R+4 Scott Garrett (R) 57.6% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Scott Garrett (R)
New Jersey 7 R+1 Mike Ferguson (R) 56.9% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Safe R Lean R Mike Ferguson (R)
New Mexico 1 D+2 Heather Wilson (R) 54.4% R Tossup Tossup Tilt D (flip) Tossup Tossup Heather Wilson (R)
New York 3 D+2 Peter King (R) 63.0% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Peter King (R)
New York 13 D+1 Vito Fossella (R) 59.0% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Vito Fossella (R)
New York 19 R+1 Sue Kelly (R) 66.7% R Lean R Likely R Tilt R Lean R Lean R John Hall (D)
New York 20 R+3 John E. Sweeney (R) 65.8% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
New York 24 R+1 Sherwood Boehlert (R) (retiring) 56.9% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Mike Arcuri (D)
New York 25 D+3 James T. Walsh (R) 90.4% R Lean R Tilt R Tilt R Lean R Lean R James T. Walsh (R)
New York 26 R+3 Thomas M. Reynolds (R) 55.6% R Tossup Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean D (flip) Thomas M. Reynolds (R)
New York 29 R+5 Randy Kuhl (R) 50.7% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R Randy Kuhl (R)
North Carolina 8 R+3 Robin Hayes (R) 55.5% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Robin Hayes (R)
North Carolina 11 R+7 Charles Taylor (R) 54.9% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Heath Shuler (D)
North Carolina 13 D+2 Brad Miller (D) 58.8% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Brad Miller (D)
Ohio 1 R+1 Steve Chabot (R) 59.8% R Tossup Tossup Tilt R Tossup Tossup Steve Chabot (R)
Ohio 2 R+13 Jean Schmidt (R) 51.6% R Tossup Tossup Tilt D (flip) Tossup Tossup Jean Schmidt (R)
Ohio 6 Even Ted Strickland (D) (retiring) [a] 100.0% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Charlie Wilson (D)
Ohio 12 R+1 Pat Tiberi (R) 62.0% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Safe R Likely R Pat Tiberi (R)
Ohio 13 D+6 Sherrod Brown (D) (retiring) [b] 67.4% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Betty Sutton (D)
Ohio 15 R+1 Deborah Pryce (R) 60.0% R Tossup Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Deborah Pryce (R)
Ohio 18 R+6 Vacant [d] 66.2% R Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Zack Space (D)
Oregon 5 D+1 Darlene Hooley (D) 52.9% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Darlene Hooley (D)
Pennsylvania 4 R+3 Melissa Hart (R) 63.1% R Tossup Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Jason Altmire (D)
Pennsylvania 6 D+2 Jim Gerlach (R) 51.0% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Jim Gerlach (R)
Pennsylvania 7 D+4 Curt Weldon (R) 58.8% R Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Joe Sestak (D)
Pennsylvania 8 D+3 Mike Fitzpatrick (R) 55.3% R Tossup Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Patrick Murphy (D)
Pennsylvania 10 R+8 Don Sherwood (R) 92.8% R Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Chris Carney (D)
South Carolina 5 R+6 John Spratt (D) 63.1% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D John Spratt (D)
Texas 17 R+18 Chet Edwards (D) 51.2% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Chet Edwards (D)
Texas 22 R+15 Vacant [e] 55.2% R Tossup Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Nick Lampson (D)
Texas 23 R+4 Henry Bonilla (R) 69.3% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Safe R Likely R Ciro Rodriguez (D)
Utah 2 R+17 Jim Matheson (D) 54.8% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Jim Matheson (D)
Vermont at-large D+8 Bernie Sanders (I) (retiring) [b] 67.4% I Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Peter Welch (D)
Virginia 2 R+6 Thelma Drake (R) 55.1% R Tossup Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Thelma Drake (R)
Virginia 11 R+5 Frank Wolf (R) 63.7% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Frank Wolf (R)
Washington 2 D+3 Rick Larsen (D) 54.8% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Rick Larsen (D)
Washington 5 R+7 Cathy McMorris (R) 59.7% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Cathy McMorris (R)
Washington 8 D+2 Dave Reichert (R) 51.5% R Lean R Tilt R Tilt R Lean R Tossup Dave Reichert (R)
West Virginia 1 R+6 Alan Mollohan (D) 67.8% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Alan Mollohan (D)
West Virginia 2 R+5 Shelley Moore Capito (R) 57.5% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Wisconsin 8 Even Mark Green (R) (retiring) [a] 70.1% R Tossup Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Steve Kagen (D)
Wyoming at-large R+19 Barbara Cubin (R) 55.3% R Tossup Likely R Tilt R Safe R Tossup Barbara Cubin (R)
Overall D - 207
R - 189
39 tossups
D - 220
R - 196
19 tossups
D - 233
R - 202
D - 214
R - 205
16 tossups
D - 213
R - 199
23 tossups
D - 233
R - 202

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g Retired to run for Governor
  2. ^ a b c d e Retired to run for senate
  3. ^ Incumbent Mark Foley (Republican) resigned in September 2006, seat left vacant until the next congress.
  4. ^ Incumbent Bob Ney (Republican) resigned in November 2006, seat left vacant until the next congress.
  5. ^ Incumbent Tom DeLay (Republican) resigned in June 2006, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) won a simultaneous special election to fill the remainder of DeLay's term.

References

  1. ^ "2006 Competitive House Race Chart" (PDF). House: Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. November 6, 2006. Archived from the original on September 27, 2007. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  2. ^ "2006 House Ratings". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. November 6, 2006. Archived from the original on November 7, 2006. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  3. ^ "2006 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 6, 2006. Archived from the original on November 10, 2006. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  4. ^ "Battle for the House of Representatives". realclearpolitics.com. Real Clear Politics. November 7, 2006. Archived from the original on November 9, 2006. Retrieved December 12, 2023.
  5. ^ "Balance of Power Scorecard: House". cqpolitics.com. Congressional Quarterly Inc. Archived from the original on November 17, 2006. Retrieved November 20, 2023.