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2004 United States presidential election in Oklahoma

←  2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout68.3% (of registered voters)
55.6% (of voting age population)
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 959,792 503,966
Percentage 65.57% 34.43%

County Results
Bush
  50-60%
  60-70%
  70-80%
  80-90%


President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Oklahoma took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose seven representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Oklahoma was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 31.14% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered a safe red state. Bush won this state, every single county, and congressional district. Giving Bush 65.57% of the vote, it was the most Republican state in the south and Bush's fifth best performance in the country after Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and Nebraska. [1]

Oklahoma has been a Republican-leaning state since 1952 and a Republican stronghold since 1980. This was the first of five consecutive elections to date in which every county in the state was won by the Republican candidate.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. [2]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Solid R
Cook Political Report Solid R
Research 2000 Solid R
Zogby International Likely R
Washington Post Likely R
Washington Dispatch Likely R
Washington Times Solid R
The New York Times Solid R
CNN Likely R
Newsweek Solid R
Associated Press Solid R
Rasmussen Reports Likely R

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll, each with a double-digit margin and with at least 53% of the vote, except for the first poll. Many polls had Bush winning with a 30% margin or even higher. The final 3 poll average had Bush leading 63% to 32%. [3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $1,194,549. [4] Kerry raised $357,038. [5]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign. [6] [7]

Analysis

By 2000, Oklahoma had long been one of the more Republican-leaning states in the South, having been one of only two Southern states to have voted for Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter in 1976, and having been one of a handful of Southern states never to vote for Bill Clinton. In 2000, George W. Bush, then the governor of the neighboring state of Texas, carried Oklahoma with a little over 60% of the vote, making it his sixth-best state nationally and his best state in the South that year. However, Al Gore did manage to carry a cluster of traditionally Democratic rural counties in the eastern part of the state.

In 2004, Bush improved his percentage in Oklahoma by a little over 5% and carried every county in the state, the first of five consecutive elections (as of 2020) in which the Republican has swept the state's counties. He performed strongly in both the state's rural areas, and in its two main population centers, getting 64% of the vote in both Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties. Only in six counties was Kerry so much as able to hold Bush to a single-digit margin: Cherokee, Choctaw, Coal, McIntosh, Muskogee, and Okmulgee. None of these cast over 30,000 votes. However, in McIntosh County, John Kerry held Bush to a margin of just 2%, which would be the closest any Democrat since Gore came to carrying any Oklahoma county until Joe Biden came within 1.5% of carrying Oklahoma County in 2020. In addition, McIntosh County voted marginally more Democratic than the nation at-large, the last time any county in the state has voted as such as of 2022.

The third-party vote, which had amounted to 1.26% of the total state vote in 2000, disappeared in 2004, as no independent obtained ballot access in the state in 2004. Oklahoma has the toughest laws regarding third-party ballot access, [8] and 2004 was the first of three elections in a row in which only the Democrat and the Republican appeared on the ballot (with write-in votes not allowed).

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Oklahoma [9]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush Dick Cheney 959,792 65.57% 7
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 503,966 34.43% 0
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 55.6%

By county

County George W. Bush
Republican
John Kerry
Democratic
Margin Total
# % # % # %
Adair 4,971 65.99% 2,562 34.01% 2,409 31.98% 7,533
Alfalfa 2,201 82.40% 470 17.60% 1,731 64.80% 2,671
Atoka 3,142 61.75% 1,946 38.25% 1,196 23.50% 5,088
Beaver 2,272 88.44% 297 11.56% 1,975 76.88% 2,569
Beckham 5,454 73.85% 1,931 26.15% 3,523 47.70% 7,385
Blaine 3,199 72.36% 1,222 27.64% 1,977 44.72% 4,421
Bryan 8,615 59.99% 5,745 40.01% 2,870 19.98% 14,360
Caddo 6,491 62.37% 3,916 37.63% 2,575 24.74% 10,407
Canadian 33,297 77.42% 9,712 22.58% 23,585 54.84% 43,009
Carter 12,178 65.32% 6,466 34.68% 5,712 30.64% 18,644
Cherokee 9,569 52.60% 8,623 47.40% 946 5.20% 18,192
Choctaw 3,168 54.55% 2,639 45.45% 529 9.10% 5,807
Cimarron 1,242 87.10% 184 12.90% 1,058 74.20% 1,426
Cleveland 65,720 65.90% 34,007 34.10% 31,713 31.80% 99,727
Coal 1,396 53.71% 1,203 46.29% 193 7.42% 2,599
Comanche 21,170 63.78% 12,022 36.22% 9,148 27.56% 33,192
Cotton 1,742 65.98% 898 34.02% 844 31.96% 2,640
Craig 3,894 60.86% 2,504 39.14% 1,390 21.72% 6,398
Creek 18,848 65.50% 9,929 34.50% 8,919 31.00% 28,777
Custer 7,839 73.67% 2,801 26.33% 5,038 47.34% 10,640
Delaware 10,017 64.18% 5,591 35.82% 4,426 28.36% 15,608
Dewey 1,843 81.87% 408 18.13% 1,435 63.74% 2,251
Ellis 1,685 81.01% 395 18.99% 1,290 62.02% 2,080
Garfield 17,685 76.00% 5,586 24.00% 12,099 52.00% 23,271
Garvin 7,610 67.24% 3,707 32.76% 3,903 34.48% 11,317
Grady 14,136 70.31% 5,970 29.69% 8,166 40.62% 20,106
Grant 1,950 77.35% 571 22.65% 1,379 54.70% 2,521
Greer 1,529 68.02% 719 31.98% 810 36.04% 2,248
Harmon 838 70.30% 354 29.70% 484 40.60% 1,192
Harper 1,397 83.90% 268 16.10% 1,129 67.80% 1,665
Haskell 2,946 55.33% 2,378 44.67% 568 10.66% 5,324
Hughes 3,066 57.32% 2,283 42.68% 783 14.64% 5,349
Jackson 7,024 75.89% 2,232 24.11% 4,792 51.78% 9,256
Jefferson 1,546 59.39% 1,057 40.61% 489 18.78% 2,603
Johnston 2,635 60.60% 1,713 39.40% 922 21.20% 4,348
Kay 14,121 70.33% 5,957 29.67% 8,164 40.66% 20,078
Kingfisher 5,630 84.64% 1,022 15.36% 4,608 69.28% 6,652
Kiowa 2,610 64.88% 1,413 35.12% 1,197 29.76% 4,023
Latimer 2,535 56.58% 1,945 43.42% 590 13.16% 4,480
LeFlore 10,683 61.31% 6,741 38.69% 3,942 22.62% 17,424
Lincoln 10,149 71.52% 4,041 28.48% 6,108 43.04% 14,190
Logan 11,474 70.21% 4,869 29.79% 6,605 40.42% 16,343
Love 2,295 59.87% 1,538 40.13% 757 19.74% 3,833
Major 3,122 85.32% 537 14.68% 2,585 70.64% 3,659
Marshall 3,363 61.70% 2,088 38.30% 1,275 23.40% 5,451
Mayes 9,946 58.93% 6,933 41.07% 3,013 17.86% 16,879
McClain 10,041 72.85% 3,742 27.15% 6,299 45.70% 13,783
McCurtain 7,472 66.98% 3,684 33.02% 3,788 33.96% 11,156
McIntosh 4,692 51.11% 4,488 48.89% 204 2.22% 9,180
Murray 3,665 63.24% 2,130 36.76% 1,535 26.48% 5,795
Muskogee 15,124 54.58% 12,585 45.42% 2,539 9.16% 27,709
Noble 3,993 74.94% 1,335 25.06% 2,658 49.88% 5,328
Nowata 2,805 62.82% 1,660 37.18% 1,145 25.64% 4,465
Okfuskee 2,542 59.32% 1,743 40.68% 799 18.64% 4,285
Oklahoma 174,741 64.23% 97,298 35.77% 77,443 28.46% 272,039
Okmulgee 8,363 53.17% 7,367 46.83% 996 6.34% 15,730
Osage 11,467 58.70% 8,068 41.30% 3,399 17.40% 19,535
Ottawa 7,443 59.41% 5,086 40.59% 2,357 18.82% 12,529
Pawnee 4,412 63.25% 2,564 36.75% 1,848 26.50% 6,976
Payne 19,560 65.95% 10,101 34.05% 9,459 31.90% 29,661
Pittsburg 11,134 59.91% 7,452 40.09% 3,682 19.82% 18,586
Pontotoc 9,647 65.13% 5,165 34.87% 4,482 30.26% 14,812
Pottawatomie 17,215 66.59% 8,638 33.41% 8,577 33.18% 25,853
Pushmataha 2,863 59.68% 1,934 40.32% 929 19.36% 4,797
Roger Mills 1,388 78.42% 382 21.58% 1,006 56.84% 1,770
Rogers 24,976 67.70% 11,918 32.30% 13,058 35.40% 36,894
Seminole 5,624 60.66% 3,648 39.34% 1,976 21.32% 9,272
Sequoyah 8,865 60.00% 5,910 40.00% 2,955 20.00% 14,775
Stephens 13,646 71.22% 5,515 28.78% 8,131 42.44% 19,161
Texas 5,450 84.29% 1,016 15.71% 4,434 68.58% 6,466
Tillman 2,273 65.92% 1,175 34.08% 1,098 31.84% 3,448
Tulsa 163,452 64.43% 90,220 35.57% 73,232 28.86% 253,672
Wagoner 19,081 67.57% 9,157 32.43% 9,924 35.14% 28,238
Washington 16,551 70.69% 6,862 29.31% 9,689 41.38% 23,413
Washita 3,705 73.44% 1,340 26.56% 2,365 46.88% 5,045
Woods 3,166 77.26% 932 22.74% 2,234 54.52% 4,098
Woodward 6,193 80.94% 1,458 19.06% 4,735 61.88% 7,651
Totals 959,792 65.57% 503,966 34.43% 455,826 31.14% 1,463,758
County Flips:
Republican
  Hold
  Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Bush won all 5 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat. [10]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 65% 35% John Sullivan
2nd 59% 41% Brad Carson
Dan Boren
3rd 72% 28% Frank Lucas
4th 67% 33% Tom Cole
5th 64% 36% Ernest Istook

Electors

Technically the voters of Oklahoma cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Oklahoma is allocated 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 7 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:

  1. George Wiland
  2. Paul Hollrah
  3. Colby Schwartz
  4. Diana Gunther
  5. Ken Bartlett
  6. Donald Burdick
  7. Bob Hudspeth

The slate for the Democrats, which was not elected, consisted of George Krumme, Edwynne Krumme, Maxine Horner, Jim Hamilton, Bernice Mitchell, Betty McElderry, and Bob Lemon. [11]

See also

References

  1. ^ "2004 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
  2. ^ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[ permanent dead link]
  3. ^ "2004 Presidential Election Polls". uselectionatlas.org.
  4. ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
  5. ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
  6. ^ "America votes 2004: Candidate tracker". CNN. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  7. ^ "America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys". CNN. Archived from the original on April 22, 2021. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  8. ^ "Third-party Oklahoma voters seek easier ballot access". Oklahoman.com. October 9, 2012. Retrieved November 9, 2021.
  9. ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  10. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
  11. ^ "PRESIDENTIAL ELECTORS" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 25, 2020.