The St. Jude storm, also known as Cyclone Christian,[2] and other names, was a severe
hurricane-forceEuropean windstorm that hit Northwestern Europe on 27 and 28 October 2013 causing at least 17 deaths. The highest windspeed was in
Denmark, where a gust of 194.4 km/h (120.8 mph) was recorded in the south of the country (in
Als) on the afternoon of 28 October, the strongest wind recorded in the country's history.[3]
Name
Although it was reported that the storm was named by a clerk at the UK's
Met Office,[4] the Met Office themselves have stated that they do not know who[5] named the storm.[6] The storm was named by the
Weather Channel UK meteorologist Leon Brown, after the feast of Saint
Jude the Apostle, which takes place on 28 October, the day when the storm was expected to be at its height.[7][8] The name is reported to have been popularised on
Twitter before being adopted by the
media in the United Kingdom.[8]
Confusion over the name of the storm, particularly in the
United Kingdom and
Ireland, and subsequent severe impact, led the
Met Office and
Met Eireann to later start officially naming European windstorms, starting with the inaugural
2015–16 season's first system,
Storm Abigail.
Meteorological history
A depression formed off the east coast of the
United States and headed east, assisted by the
jet stream.[13] The St. Jude storm formed in the western Atlantic as a secondary low on the southern flanks of an area of low pressure to the east of southern Greenland; this
Icelandic Low was named "Burkhard" by the Free University of Berlin.[14] The St. Jude storm formed from a wave front on 26 October in the northwest Atlantic off the
Eastern seaboard of North America.[15] The developing low moved under the jet stream passing by the remnants of
ex-tropical storm Lorenzo situated in the mid Atlantic.[15][16] The tropical air from this storm provided an input of energy,[17] strengthening the jetstream, and helping to intensify the deepening of the low in an area closer to Europe than usual. This, together with a strong jet stream, led to a rapid deepening of the St. Jude low before it hit western Europe as a strengthening storm.[citation needed] The storm has been cited as both meeting and not meeting the strict criteria of
explosive deepening.[18][19] The storm system was swept across the Atlantic at a rapid pace moving eastwards with an average speed of 77 km/h (48 mph), and crossed over 2,000 km (1,200 mi) in less than 26 hours.[20]
Across southern England two zones of strong winds were noted, the first ahead of the storm that battered the
south coast, and a second zone that struck
East Anglia and the
South East as the storm passed over into the
North Sea. This second zone of winds has been identified by meteorologists as potentially being a
sting jet, an area where wind speeds are enhanced by cooled air rapidly descending from high in the storm.[21][22] The storm developed as a baroclinic leaf over England.[22] Over 20 hours between 27 October at 18:00 UTC and 28 October 14:00 UTC the central pressure of the storm dropped by 22 hPa (0.65 inHg).[17] The storm intensified as it crossed the North Sea with the central pressure dropping to an estimated 965 mb (28.5 inHg), the lowest land-based pressure of 967.6 mb (28.57 inHg) was recorded at
Thyboron,
Denmark.[20] The low pressure centre of the storm reached
Finland at 01:00 UTC 29 October having only filled to 970 mb (29 inHg).[20]
On the
Île d'Ouessant, Finistère, France, a gust of 133 km/h (83 mph) was recorded.[25] On the Dutch coast and in the
IJsselmeer, gusts of 90 to 130 km/h (56 to 81 mph) were recorded.[26]
The storm was the strongest in the
Netherlands since the
Burns Day storm of 1990, with windgusts measuring speeds between 140 and 150 km/h (87 and 93 mph) at
Wadden Sea.[27]
Two private weather recording stations on the German islands of
Borkum and
Heligoland both recorded a possible low-elevation national wind speed record of 191 km/h (119 mph) on 28 October, with maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h (81 mph) which are as yet unverified by the German weather service.[20]
A gust of 194.4 km/h (120.8 mph) was recorded in southern
Denmark, the strongest wind recorded in the country's history,[3] however the
Danish Meteorological Institute is convinced that the
1999 storm had even higher wind speeds, but different methods and faulty equipment meant that recordings were less than in 2013.[28]
Forecast
The storm was first forecast in the week before it occurred, with the Met Office supercomputer modelling the storm four days before it even formed.[29] Initial predictions, broadcast on 24 October, were that the south coast would be affected. A later forecast was that the storm would pass over the
United Kingdom on a more northerly track, affecting all areas south of the
Midlands.[30] Predictions were for 20–40 mm (0.79–1.57 in) of rain, with wind speeds of 130 km/h (80 mph) falling in a period of six to nine hours.[13] These were later updated, with winds of
Force 11 predicted.[31]
The Met Office issued "Amber – be prepared" warnings on 24 October for the storm along the south coast of England, with a "Yellow – be aware" warning extending up to the
Midlands.[32] Warnings up to the Midlands were upgraded to amber on 25 October.[33]
The forecast storm was widely reported in the British press on 25 October, with comparisons being made to the
Great Storm of 1987 and the
Burns' Day Storm of 1990.[34] A
Met Office spokeswoman said the 1990 storm, when damaging winds affected a larger area of the UK, was a better comparison than the 1987 storm, though in fact the great storm of 1987 did actually affect a similar swathe of England when matched with this storm.[35] Later projections predicted the storm to have a severity more like storms in
October 2000,
January 2007, and
March 2008.[36] Forecasters in the UK latterly thought the storm would affect England in a similar manner to the storm of
27–28 October 2002.[citation needed]Michael Fish, who made an infamous error in forecasting the Great Storm of 1987, wrote that he felt that people should delay their
journey to work because of the storm.[37] The Met Office received praise for the accuracy of its forecast.[38][39]
The worst damage was caused by trees being brought down by the wind (as many had still not yet dropped their leaves) falling onto buildings, cars and powerlines.[44] Overall structural damage to residential and commercial buildings was limited in the United Kingdom, with most damage to roofs, cladding and glazing.[44] Many insurance claims were expected for food in freezers which defrosted after power outages.[44]
Some of the more notable incidents in the United Kingdom included: In
Essex, the
helter-skelter on
Clacton Pier was blown down and the
orangutan enclosure at
Colchester Zoo suffered roof damage.[45][46] In London, a crane collapsed on top of the
Cabinet Office, closing
Whitehall between
Horse Guards Avenue and
Parliament Square.[47] A second crane collapsed in South East London, closing the
Old Kent Road,[48] both cranes were the same model and an investigation was subsequently launched by the manufacturer and the
Health and Safety Executive.[49][50] Construction sites across London were in lock-down during the storm, Francis Road in
Leyton saw one-hundred-metre-long (330 ft) two storey scaffold collapse and in
Mayfair's
Berkeley Square another large scaffold collapsed.[51] In
Hounslow, London, two people were killed when a gas explosion destroyed three houses and damaged two after the storm blew a tree down.[52] In
Ipswich, Suffolk, the high winds ripped exterior cladding off buildings overlooking the marina, with brick walls and hoardings also being brought down leading to road closures.[53] A
double-decker bus with two passengers on board was blown over near
Hadleigh,
Suffolk.[54]
Belgium
Damage in Belgium was relatively limited.[55] Fifteen people were evacuated from their homes when scaffolding collapsed in
MerksemAntwerp, damaging cars parked below.[55][56] Scaffolding in
Ostend was also brought down during the storm.[55] A high sided truck loaded with chocolate was blown over on the
European route E34 between Antwerp and Germany shedding its contents on the road and causing delays. Elsewhere in
Flanders the coastal town of
Nieuwpoort saw strong gusts damage two marquees which had been hosting the International Boat Show, despite being weighted down with large concrete blocks the damage was estimated at more than €200,000.[55][57] In
Brussels a large banner on the
European Commission's
Berlaymont building was ripped to shreds by the winds.[58] Also in Brussels, a section of the
orbital ring road was closed after road signs were brought down by high winds.[55]
Netherlands
The record for the highest gust in the country (for the month of October) was broken three times, with a 148.2-kilometre-per-hour (92.1 mph) gust measured in
Texel,
North Holland, a 151-kilometre-per-hour (94 mph) gust on
Vlieland,
Friesland, and the strongest gust of 152 km/h (94 mph) at Lauwersoog,
De Marne in
Groningen.[59] Vlieland sustained winds of
Force 11 for one hour, and Force 12 winds for at least 20 minutes. Two people were killed, a woman in
Amsterdam and a man in
Veenendaal, while at least 25 others were injured.[60]
Widespread damage was reported throughout the country, with thousands of trees falling down and damaging cars, gas lines, buildings, and causing disruption to transport. In Amsterdam, hundreds of trees were uprooted, destroying cars and sinking at least one houseboat on the city's canals. Roofs were blown off buildings and debris caused much of the city's
tram services to come to a halt, while buses experienced heavy delays and the subway system was reportedly overcrowded.
Amsterdam Centraal railway station was closed due to storm damage, and there was virtually no rail traffic in and around the city for most of the day, leaving thousands of travellers stranded.
KLM cancelled 47 flights out of
Schiphol airport, while many others experienced heavy delays. Municipal authorities closed most of the city's parks in addition to the
Artis zoo, and several remained closed a day after the storm's passage, including the
Vondelpark and
Amstelpark. A photograph circulating on
Twitter shows a
ferris wheel in central Amsterdam that appears to be damaged but it turned out to be a planned demolition by the owners.[61]
Uploaded recordings of the storm in the Netherlands included a cyclist in Amsterdam narrowly escaping a falling tree at Haarlemmerplein,[62] and video of a house roof being damaged by the high winds in
Dokkum,
Friesland.[63]
The
Port of Rotterdam was closed for all shipping on 28 October, while the
DFDS-owned
King Seaways ferry with 1,080 people on board coming from
Newcastle was forced to abandon docking at
IJmuiden and return to sea to wait the storm out.[64][65]
On 29 October Forest Service authorities warned people not to venture into forested areas for the next few days, as many trees were weakened and together with falling branches represented a danger to people's lives.[66] Initial damage estimates exceeded 95 million Euros and were expected to rise even further, as they only included individuals reports and not damage done to the agricultural or public sector.[67] More than 10,000 emergency calls were made throughout the Netherlands during the day, with Amsterdam having the highest total of 366.[68]
In
Göttingen, also in Lower Saxony, part of the façade of a building of the city's
university was brought down by storm gusts onto empty parked cars.[74][75]
In Denmark, The
Lyngby railway station was damaged. Trees were blown down in almost every part of the country and car accidents were also caused by the storm. A roof in
Haderslev in southern region of Denmark landed on an elderly woman. A man died after being hit by a brick from a fallen house. The day after, 29 October a man was killed after he crashed into a fallen tree on the road.[76] In Copenhagen areas of the main shopping street
Strøget, were closed by police due to the danger of falling scaffolding in the wind, also in the city a 17-storey crane was toppled in Bryggen.[77] In
Faaborg, the Åstrup Mølle
windmill had two sails blown off.[78]
Train operating company
DSB rail said it expected damages to total at least five million
kroner, possibly up to 10 million kroner with 25 damaged trains needing to be repaired.[79] The track and signal operator
Banedanmark said 500 trees had fallen on the lines in the country and expected its damages to total between five and seven million kroner from the storm.[79]
Estonia
The strongest wind gust of 33.2 m/s (120 km/h; 74 mph) was recorded on the Estonian island of
Vilsandi on 29 October.[80] Some 160,000 customers were without power during the storm's passage and many houses and forests were damaged.
Disruption
Electricity supplies
More than 850,000 homes lost power in the UK[81] at some point.
Both nuclear power reactors at
Dungeness B were shut down due to weather-related circumstances, with operator
EDF Energy expecting generation on the site to be off for seven days after power to the site was cut, and the reactors shut down safely in response.[citation needed]
The
NorNed HVDC connector between Norway and the Netherlands was put out of action following the destruction of the converter station roof in the Netherlands, the connection was not expected to be restored until 15 November. The outage lowered Nordic energy prices as Norway's ability to export surplus electricity was reduced.[83]
Swedish energy companies reported that 66,000 people were without electricity at 03:00 on 29 October.[86]
In Finland, thousands of people were without electricity in the south and southwest, but the storm was less severe than expected, with the strongest winds passing to the south of the country through
Estonia.[87]
In Estonia, 160,000 customers were without power during the storm's passage,[88] with
Pärnu county and
Saaremaa worst hit.[89] Latvian energy company
Latvenergo lent technical assistance to
Eesti Energia, helping to restore energy in the south of the country.[90]
In
Latvia 2000 households were left without power and three towns with a population of 68,000.[citation needed] 1000 power line support beams were replaced in four days.[90]
In Denmark,
Copenhagen Airport closed for all departures and arrivals for a while Monday evening, beside several delays and cancellations.
In Germany,
Hamburg Airport several flights were cancelled or were diverted to
Hannover airport, about 151 km (94 mi) south of Hamburg, beside several delays and cancellations.[95]
Southern announced that it was highly unlikely to run any service before 09:00 on 28 October.
South West Trains cancelled all trains due to depart before 08:00 of 28 October, and warned of delays as those trains running would be restricted to 50 miles per hour (80 km/h).[36] It also warned people not to travel on 28 October and stated that a significantly reduced timetable would be operating.[98]
Transport for London reported that services on six
Tube lines were affected on account of debris on the tracks.[47]
International
Eurostar cancelled all trains due to depart before 07:00
UTC,[98] and warned of delays as those trains running would do so at a reduced speed.[36]
Thalys trains between Belgium and the Netherlands were diverted off the high-speed lines, leading to delays of two hours.[99]
Belgium
Trains in Belgium were severely delayed, with 60 percent of them arriving late. The average delay was 15 minutes, with 20 percent of trains being delayed by more than the average.[99]
Nederlandse Spoorwegen had suspended all traintraffic from 11:00 around Amsterdam, as later also the whole northern part of the Netherlands. During the end of the morning, as also most of the afternoon, these areas had no railway services. Two trains hit fallen trees on the railway and were heavily damaged. At many railways trees had collapsed and major delays occurred till the late hours.[101] All trains north of
Zwolle,
Overijssel were suspended.[102]
Public transport in
Amsterdam, provided by GVB
Gemeentelijk Vervoerbedrijf, suspended its trams and ferries. Also many buses had major delays due to damage by the storm. Services resumed later the same evening.[103]
Denmark
Trains in
Denmark were cancelled. Trees on the tracks was the major reason.[104]
The station building at
Lyngby railway station was damaged as the roof of a nearby building was blown off, landing on the station. All services through the station were suspended, with the station not due to be reopened before 1 November.[105]
Sweden
Swedish authorities (Trafikverket) cancelled traffic on a few small lines in Sweden that are prone to be seriously affected by strong winds, the announcement being made one day in advance.[106] On the 28th, main lines in South-West Sweden were also closed to avoid having passengers stranded out on the lines. The closure was a preemptive action.
Russia
Tramway and trolleybus transport networks of
St. Petersburg were stopped for almost two hours.[107]
The
Port of Dover was closed between 06:00 and 09:30 on 28 October; two
P&O ferries with a total of 463 passengers on board were held at sea in
The Downs, off
Deal, Kent.[82][113]
In the
Baltic Sea, a
Stena Line passenger ferry with 33 staff on board was driven by high winds to ground: the
Stena Alegra anchored outside the Swedish port of
Karlskrona. The 89-metre-long (292 ft) bulk carrier R:tterdam's anchor was uprooted, but managed to weigh anchor again.[118]
One hundred people were evacuated from the Siri oil platform in the North Sea.[119]
A woman of 47 was swept into the sea from
Belle Île, an island off the coast of Brittany.[120][121] Her dead body was found the next morning.[122]
United Kingdom
At
Newhaven, East Sussex, a 14-year-old boy was swept out to sea on 27 October.[123] The search for him, involving the
Newhaven LifeboatDavid and Elizabeth Acland and a
Coastguard helicopter, was called off at 21:45 on 27 October.[124] A man died in
Watford,
Hertfordshire when a tree fell on his car.[125] In
Hever, Kent, a 17-year-old girl died after the storm blew a tree onto the
static caravan in which she was living.[23] In
Hounslow, London, two people were killed when a gas explosion destroyed three houses and damaged two after the storm blew a tree down.[52]
Netherlands
In
Amsterdam, a woman died after a tree fell on her at the
Herengracht. A tree that fell on a taxi severely injured the male passenger inside.[126] A 22-year-old man was severely injured in
Veenendaal when he was struck by a tree branch, and he died later in the hospital.[127]
Germany
In
Cologne, a sailor died on 27 October when his boat capsized.[128] A fisherman died in a separate incident. On 28 October, two people, a mother and child, were killed in
Gelsenkirchen when an uprooted tree fell on their car.[74][129] A Flensburg newspaper reported the death of a German male in
Flensburg, hit by a falling tree.[130] The German media claimed at least 8 dead.[131]
Denmark
A 21-year-old man who was taking pictures in
Gilleleje near Copenhagen was killed by flying tiles.[132] A man was found dead in his car in
Holbæk after his car had crashed into a fallen tree. Danish's mother was also found dead at 35 due to a heroin overdose.[133]
The track of the St. Jude storm across Europe took it over densely populated areas of southern England and the Netherlands, impacting on its route the major cities of London, the Dutch
Randstad, Hamburg and Copenhagen, which could indicate a high level of insured exposure.[134]
Immediately following the passage of the storm in the United Kingdom, a surge of calls to insurance groups led to companies drafting in additional staff to handle claims and assess damage.[135] Many of the larger insurers also found that their share price fell as investors feared the potential financial costs the storm could bring to the companies,[135] although the Financial Times reported that shares in UK insurers were trading at a level broadly similar to the wider market during the morning of 28 October.[136]
Willis Re estimated the total costs to the insurance industry of the storm were likely to range between £300 million and £500 million in the UK on 29 October 2013. The Executive Director said the damage was comparable to windstorm
Kyrill, which struck in 2007 and according to data from the
Association of British Insurers would have incurred costs of £370 million in 2013.[137] In an update released on 4 November Willis Re stated they expected losses to be lower than their initial estimates in the UK, and estimated Europe-wide losses to be between €800m and €1.3bn (£677m and £1.1bn).[138] The catastrophe modelling company AIR Worldwide estimated on 7 November that they expected European losses to be higher at between 1.5 and 2.3 Euros.[44][139]
Perils AG, the independent reporting agency established to aggregate and provide the insurance industry with catastrophe insurance data,[140] launched an investigation into the storm.[141] The initial estimate of damages form the storm were published on 6 December at €994 million, later updated to €1,068 million on 27 January 2014. The third estimate of €1,091 million was released on 28 April 2014.[142]
Electricity supplies
In the United Kingdom 3,110 homes were still without power on 1 November mostly in the east of England, with
Suffolk being the worst-hit area of the country.[143]UK Power Networks said the storm caused extensive damage to overhead power lines, forcing it to draft in more than 1,000 specialist engineers.[143] By the afternoon of 1 November only 100 homes were without power.[81]National Grid
estimated that two gigawatts (2000 MW) of wind power generation was lost during 24 hours as the St. Jude storm passed over the UK (turbines shut down during very high winds as a safety precaution), generation by fuel type during the storm was 10.5 percent wind, 40 percent coal and 23 percent gas fired, which a spokesman said was typical for a windy day.[144] UK Power Networks the
Distribution network operator in the
East of England, London and parts of
South East England paid 13,000 eligible customers compensation totalling £1,134,000 as a result of power outages lasting longer than 48 hours due to the storm.[145]
In Estonia the tabloid Õhtuleht was critical of the government owned
Eesti Energia following the storm damage to the countries' electricity infrastructure. The newspaper questioned if the company was investing enough in the domestic power grid, especially in rural areas.[146] The director of Elektrilevi, the power distribution subsidiary of Eesti Energia announced that 80 percent of Estonia would be covered by a weatherproof grid by 2025.[147]
Cultural References
Florence Welch wrote a song about the personal struggles she was experiencing around the time the storm hit Britain. She said that she felt as if a huge storm were following her, both physically and mentally.
Notes
^ When a windmill is
tailwinded, the wind is blowing from the rear of the mill. A
fantail cannot turn the cap to face into wind, and the cap may be lifted and/or blown off.[148]
References
^"Analyse". wetterpate.de. Retrieved 1 November 2013.
^"Analyse" [Analysis] (in German). wetterpate.de. Retrieved 27 October 2013.
^"Tijdlijn van de herfststorm" [Timeline of the autumn storm]. De Telegraaf (in Dutch). 27 October 2013. Archived from
the original on 20 December 2014. Retrieved 27 October 2013.