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British crisis advisory group of scientists
The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team is a group of experts from
Imperial College London studying the
COVID-19 pandemic and informing the
government of the United Kingdom , and governments and public health agencies around the world.
[1]
[2]
[3] The team comprises scientists from the
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis , the
Jameel Institute , the
Imperial College Business School and the Department of Mathematics.
[4] The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team is led by Professor
Neil Ferguson , Director of the Jameel Institute and MRC GIDA.
[5]
[6]
On 16 March 2020 the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team produced a research forecast of various scenarios for spread of the disease in the United Kingdom and the United States. Without any mitigation their forecast showed local health care capabilities vastly overwhelmed by the epidemic wave. Periodic cycles of quarantine followed by softer social distancing were recommended, with quarantines in effect two-thirds of the time.
[7] On 30 March, a study on 11 European countries was published.
[8] It provided estimates of the situation as of 28 March (observed and modelised with
CovidSim ), and projections for 31 March given current expectations, no action, and the difference. It also provided a list of government policies and their respective absolute dates.
[8] As of 2 May 2021, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team has produced 43 reports.
[9]
Reports
COVID-19 reports
Rank
Date
Title
43
2021-03-24
Quantifying the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic
42
2020-12-31
Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England: insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data
41
2020-12-22
The 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England: key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions
40
2020-12-10
Optimal scheduling rules for elective care to minimize years of life lost during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: an application to England
39
2020-12-01
Characterising COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and mortality under-ascertainment in Khartoum, Sudan
38
2020-11-27
SARS-CoV-2 setting-specific transmission rates: a systematic review and meta-analysis
37
2020-11-25
Children’s role in the COVID-19 pandemic: as systematic review of susceptibility, severity, and transmissibility
36
2020-11-16
Modelling ICU capacity under different epidemiological scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic in three western European countries
35
2020-11-16
How can we keep schools and universities open? Differentiating closures by economic sector to optimize social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission
34
2020-10-29
Infection Fatality Ratio Estimates from Seroprevalence
33
2020-09-25
Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine
32
2020-09-17
Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States
31
2020-09-15
Estimating under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality: an analysis of novel data sources to provide insight into COVID-19 dynamics in Damascus, Syria
30
2020-07-03
The COVID-19 epidemic trends and control measures in mainland China
29
2020-07-01
The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all-cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study
28
2020-06-18
"Excess non-COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales between 29th February and 5th June 2020"
27
2020-06-15
Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic
26
2020-06-08
Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission
25
2020-05-29
Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions
24
2020-05-29
Anonymised & aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests initial compliance with COVID19 social distancing interventions was high & geographically consistent across UK
23
2020-05-21
State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States
22
2020-05-12
Equity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: an assessment of the direct and indirect impacts on disadvantaged and vulnerable populations in low- and lower middle-income countries
21
2020-05-08
Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil
20
2020-05-04
Using mobility to estimate the transmission intensity of COVID-19 in Italy: A subnational analysis with future scenarios
19
2020-05-01
The Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on HIV, TB and Malaria in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
18
2020-05-01
The potential public health impact of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa
17
2020-04-29
Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in a London NHS Trust: a retrospective cohort study
16
2020-04-23
Role of testing in COVID-19 control
The report estimates COVID-19 testing's impact as reducing transmission by 25~33% from populations tested, but also allowing early release from quarantines and creation of Immunity passport based on antibody tests. Tests face technical, legal, and ethical challenges. Tests while helping are complementary to other more potent actions such as self-isolation when symptoms arises, contact tracing and quarantines.
15
2020-04-17
Strengthening hospital capacity for the COVID-19 pandemic
Reports presents the Jameel Institute pandemic planner "a hospital planning tool to calculate how much capacity in terms of beds, staff and ventilators is obtained by implementing healthcare provision interventions affecting the management of patient care in hospitals".
14
2020-04-03
Online Community Involvement in COVID-19 Research & Outbreak Response: Early Insights from a UK Perspective
13
2020-03-30
Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries
12
2020-03-26
The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression
11
2020-03-24
Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment
10
2020-03-20
Public response to UK Government recommendations on COVID-19: population survey, 17–18 March 2020
9
2020-03-16
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand
This report made an informed estimate of impact for both UK and the US, according to different strategies. The dire impact expressed helped convert the
Johnson government from laisser-faire to mitigative strategies.
8
2020-03-11
Symptom progression of COVID-19
7
2020-03-09
Estimating infection prevalence in Wuhan City from repatriation flights
6
2020-02-21
Relative sensitivity of international surveillance
5
2020-02-15
Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2
4
2020-02-10
Severity of 2019 novel coronavirus (nCoV)
3
2020-01-25
Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV
2
2020-01-22
Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China
1
2020-01-17
Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China
Estimates
11 European countries estimates on 28 March 2020
Population infected by country
ICCRT's model projection for 28 March
[8]
WHO lab-confirmed 29 March
Country
Population[
citation needed ]
Infected
(95%
range )
Infected
(mean %)
Cases
(est.)
Cases
Detected
(% of pop.)
Austria
8,999,973
0.36%–3.1%
1.1%
99000
8291
0.09%
Belgium
11,579,502
1.3%–9.7%
3.7%
428400
9134
0.08%
Denmark
5,785,741
0.40%–3.1%
1.1%
63600
2201
0.04%
France
65,227,357
1.1%–7.4%
3.0%
1956800
37145
0.06%
Germany
83,792,987
0.28%–1.8%
0.72%
603300
52547
0.06%
Italy
60,496,082
3.2%–26%
9.8%
5928600
92472
0.15%
Norway
5,407,670
0.09%–1.2%
0.41%
22200
3845
0.07%
Spain
46,767,543
3.7%–41%
15%
7015100
72248
0.15%
Sweden
10,081,948
0.85%–8.4%
3.1%
312500
3447
0.03%
Switzerland
8,637,694
1.3%–7.6%
3.2%
276400
13152
0.15%
United Kingdom
67,803,450
1.2%–5.4%
2.7%
1830700
17093
0.03%
Note: WHO reporting laboratory-confirmed cases on 29 March, 10am
Central European Time .
World estimates for 3 strategies
Estimated impact of suppression strategies over 250 days for 3 different strategies.
[10]
Unmitigated Scenario
Suppression at 0.2 deaths/100,000/week
Suppression at 1.6 deaths/100,000/week
Infections
Deaths
Infections
Deaths
Infections
Deaths
East Asia & Pacific
2,117,131,000
15,303,000
92,544,000
442,000
632,619,000
3,315,000
Europe & Central Asia
801,770,000
7,276,000
61,578,000
279,000
257,706,000
1,397,000
Latin America & Caribbean
566,993,000
3,194,000
45,346,000
158,000
186,595,000
729,000
Middle East & North Africa
419,138,000
1,700,000
30,459,000
113,000
152,262,000
594,000
North America
326,079,000
2,981,000
17,730,000
92,000
90,529,000
520,000
South Asia
1,737,766,000
7,687,000
111,703,000
475,000
629,164,000
2,693,000
Sub-Saharan Africa
1,044,858,000
2,483,000
110,164,000
298,000
454,968,000
1,204,000
Total
7,013,734,000
40,624,000
469,523,000
1,858,000
2,403,843,000
10,452,000
See also
References
External links
Institutions
Hospitals and medical clinics
Organizations
Global By location
Health institutes Pandemic institutes Relief funds
Data (templates)
Global Africa Americas Asia
Europe Oceania Others
Locations
Impact
Science and healthcare
Legislation
Current
Revoked
Health Protection (Coronavirus) Regulations 2020
Health Protection (Coronavirus, Business Closure) (England) Regulations 2020
Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020
COVID-19 local lockdown regulations in England
First COVID-19 tier regulations in England
Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) (No. 4) Regulations 2020
Coronavirus, Restrictions (All Tiers) (England) Regulations 2020
Coronavirus, International Travel (England) Regulations 2020
Face Coverings on Public Transport (England) Regulations 2020
Face Coverings in a Relevant Place (England) Regulations 2020
Coronavirus, Restrictions (Steps) (England) Regulations 2021
Coronavirus, Restrictions (Local Authority Enforcement...) (England) Regulations 2020
Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) (No. 3) Regulations 2020
Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (Self-Isolation) (England) Regulations 2020
Coronavirus, International Travel and Operator Liability (England) Regulations 2021
Coronavirus Act 2020
Expired or spent
Responses
Timelines
England
Northern Ireland
Scotland
Wales
Advisory bodies Key people England Northern Ireland Scotland Wales
Media depictions See also