Some small and low population islands do not have the resources to protect their islands and natural resources. They experience
climate hazards which impact on human health, livelihoods, and inhabitable space. This can lead to pressure to
leave these islands but resources to do so are often lacking as well.
Efforts to combat these challenges are ongoing and multinational. Many of the small island developing countries have a high vulnerability to climate change, whilst having contributed very little to global
greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, some small island countries have made advocacy for global cooperation on
climate change mitigation a key aspect of their
foreign policy.
Common features
Small island developing states (SIDS) are identified as a group of 38 United Nations (UN) Member States and 20 Non-UN Member/Associate Members that are located in three regions: the Caribbean; the Pacific; and the Atlantic, Indian Ocean, Mediterranean and South China Seas (AIMS) and are home to approximately 65 million people. These nations are far from homogeneous but they do share numerous features, including narrow resource bases, dominance of economic sectors that are reliant on the natural environment, limited industrial activity, physical remoteness, and limited economies of scale.[2]
Due to close connections between human communities and coastal environments, SIDS are particularly exposed to hazards associated with the ocean and
cryosphere, including
sea level rise, extreme sea levels,
tropical cyclones,
marine heatwaves, and
ocean acidification. A common feature of SIDS is a high ratio of coastline-to-land area, with large portions of populations, infrastructure, and assets being located along the coast.[2]
Patterns of increasing
hazards, high levels of exposure, and acute
vulnerability interact to result in high risk of small island developing states (SIDS) to climate change.[2]
Small island developing states (SIDS) have long been recognized as being particularly at risk to climate change. These nations are often described as being on the “frontlines of climate change”, as “hot spots of climate change”, or as being “canaries in the coalmine”.[2] The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned already in 2001 that small island countries will experience considerable economic and social consequences due to climate change.[4]
Impacts
Sea level rise
Sea level rise is especially threatening to low-lying island nations because seas are encroaching upon limited habitable land and threatening existing cultures.[7][8]Stefan Rahmstorf, a professor of Ocean Physics at
Potsdam University in Germany notes "even limiting warming to 2 degrees, in my view, will still commit some island nations and coastal cities to drown."[9]
Between 1901 and 2018, average global
sea level rose by 15–25 cm (6–10 in), an average of 1–2 mm (0.039–0.079 in) per year.[10] This rate accelerated to 4.62 mm (0.182 in)/yr for the decade 2013–2022.[11]Climate change due to human activities is the main cause.[12]: 5, 8 Between 1993 and 2018,
thermal expansion of water accounted for 42% of sea level rise. Melting
temperate glaciers accounted for 21%, while polar glaciers in
Greenland accounted for 15% and those in
Antarctica for 8%.[13]: 1576 Sea level rise lags behind changes in the
Earth's temperature, and sea level rise will therefore continue to accelerate between now and 2050 in response to warming that has already happened.[14] What happens after that depends on human
greenhouse gas emissions. Sea level rise would slow down between 2050 and 2100 if there are very deep cuts in emissions. It could then reach slightly over 30 cm (1 ft) from now by 2100. With high emissions it would accelerate. It could rise by 1.01 m (3+1⁄3 ft) or even 1.6 m (5+1⁄3 ft) by then.[12][15]: 1302 In the long run, sea level rise would amount to 2–3 m (7–10 ft) over the next 2000 years if warming amounts to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). It would be 19–22 metres (62–72 ft) if warming peaks at 5 °C (9.0 °F).[12]: 21
Rising seas affect every coastal and island population on Earth.[16][17] This can be through flooding, higher
storm surges,
king tides, and
tsunamis. There are many knock-on effects. They lead to loss of coastal
ecosystems like
mangroves.
Crop production falls because of
salinization of
irrigation water. Damage to ports disrupts sea trade.[18][19][20] The sea level rise projected by 2050 will expose places currently inhabited by tens of millions of people to annual flooding. Without a sharp reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, this may increase to hundreds of millions in the latter decades of the century.[21] Areas not directly exposed to rising sea levels could be vulnerable to large-scale migration and economic disruption.
Changes in temperatures and rain
Atmospheric temperature extremes have already increased in frequency and intensity in SIDS and are projected to continue along this trend.[2] Heavy precipitation events in SIDS have also increased in frequency and intensity and are expected to further increase.[2]
Agriculture and fisheries
Climate change poses a risk to
food security in many Pacific Islands, impacting
fisheries and
agriculture.[22] As sea level rises, island nations are at increased risk of losing coastal arable land to degradation as well as
salination. Once the limited available soil on these islands becomes salinated, it becomes very difficult to produce subsistence crops such as
breadfruit. This would severely impact the agricultural and commercial sector in nations such as the
Marshall Islands and
Kiribati.[23]
In addition, local fisheries would also be affected by
higher ocean temperatures and increased
ocean acidification. As ocean temperatures rise and the pH of oceans decreases, many fish and other marine species would die out or change their habits and range. As well as this, water supplies and local ecosystems such as
mangroves, are threatened by global warming.[24]
Economic impacts
SIDS may also have reduced financial and
human capital to
mitigate climate change risk, as many rely on
international aid to cope with disasters like severe storms. Worldwide, climate change is projected to have an average annual loss of 0.5%
GDP by 2030; in Pacific SIDS, it will be 0.75–6.5% GDP by 2030. Caribbean SIDS will have average annual losses of 5% by 2025, escalating to 20% by 2100 in projections without regional mitigation strategies.[2] The
tourism sector of many island countries is particularly threatened by increased occurrences of extreme weather events such as
hurricanes and
droughts.[24]
Public health
Climate change impacts small island ecosystems in ways that have a detrimental effect on public health. In island nations, changes in sea levels, temperature, and humidity may increase the prevalence of
mosquitoes and diseases carried by them such as
malaria and
Zika virus. Rising sea levels and severe weather such as flooding and droughts may render agricultural land unusable and contaminate freshwater drinking supplies. Flooding and rising sea levels also directly threaten populations, and in some cases may be a threat to the entire existence of the island.[25]
deterioration in coastal conditions, such as beach erosion and
coral bleaching, which will likely affect local resources such as fisheries, as well as the value of tourism destinations.
reduction of already limited water resources to the point that they become insufficient to meet demand during low-rainfall periods by mid-century, especially on small islands (such as in the
Caribbean and the
Pacific Ocean)
invasion by non-native species increasing with higher temperatures, particularly in mid- and high-latitude islands.
Mitigation
Greenhouse gas emissions
Small Island Developing States make minimal contribution to global
greenhouse gas emissions, with a combined total of less than 1%.[27][3]
However, that does not indicate that greenhouse emissions are not produced at all, and it is recorded that the annual total greenhouse gas emissions from islands could range from 292.1 to 29,096.2 [metric] tonne CO2-equivalent.[28]
Climate migration has been discussed in popular media as a potential adaptation approach for the populations of islands threatened by sea level rise. These depictions are often
sensationalist or problematic, although migration may likely form a part of adaptation. Mobility has long been a part of life in islands, but could be used in combination with local adaptation measures.[3]
A study that engaged the experiences of residents in atoll communities found that the cultural identities of these populations are strongly tied to these lands.[30]Human rights activists argue that the potential loss of entire atoll countries, and consequently the loss of national sovereignty, self-determination, cultures, and indigenous lifestyles cannot be compensated for financially.[31][32] Some researchers suggest that the focus of international dialogues on these issues should shift from ways to relocate entire communities to strategies that instead allow for these communities to remain on their lands.[31][30]
Climate resilient economies
Many SIDS now understand the need to move towards low-carbon,
climate resilient economies, as set out in the
Caribbean Community (CARICOM) implementation plan for climate change-resilient development. SIDS often rely heavily on imported fossil fuels, spending an ever-larger proportion of their GDP on energy imports.
Renewable technologies have the advantage of providing energy at a lower cost than fossil fuels and making SIDS more sustainable.
Barbados has been successful in adopting the use of
solar water heaters (SWHs). A 2012 report published by the
Climate & Development Knowledge Network showed that its SWH industry now boasts over 50,000 installations. These have saved consumers as much as US$137 million since the early 1970s. The report suggested that Barbados' experience could be easily replicated in other SIDS with high fossil fuel imports and abundant sunshine.[33]
The
Maldives and
Tuvalu particularly have played a prominent role on the international stage. In 2002, Tuvalu threatened to sue the
United States and
Australia in the
International Court of Justice for their contribution to climate change and for not ratifying the
Kyoto Protocol.[38] The governments of both of these countries have cooperated with environmental advocacy networks, non-governmental organisations and the media to draw attention to the threat of climate change to their countries. At the
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference, Tuvalu delegate Ian Fry spearheaded
an effort to halt negotiations and demand a comprehensive, legally binding agreement.[38]
As of March 2022, the
Asian Development Bank has committed $3.62 billion to help small island developing states with climate change, transport, energy, and health projects.[39]
Climate change in the Caribbean poses major risks to the islands in the
Caribbean. The main environmental changes expected to affect the Caribbean are a
rise in sea level, stronger
hurricanes, longer
dry seasons and shorter
wet seasons.[40] As a result,
climate change is expected to lead to changes in the economy, environment and population of the Caribbean.[41][42][43] Temperature rise of 2 °C above preindustrial levels can increase the likelihood of extreme
hurricane rainfall by four to five times in the
Bahamas and three times in
Cuba and
Dominican Republic.[44] Rise in sea level could impact coastal communities of the Caribbean if they are less than 3 metres (10 ft) above the sea. In Latin America and the Caribbean, it is expected that 29–32 million people may be affected by the sea level rise because they live below this threshold. The Bahamas is expected to be the most affected because at least 80% of the total land is below 10 meters elevation.[45][46]
East Timor
East Timor, or Timor-Leste, faces numerous challenges as a result of climate change and increased global temperatures. As an island country, rising sea levels threaten its coastal areas, including the capital city
Dili.[47] The country is considered highly vulnerable and is expected to experience worsening
cyclones, flooding, heatwaves, and drought. As a large percentage of the population is dependent on local agriculture, these changes are expected to impact industry in the country as well.[48]
Climate change is a major issue for the
Maldives. As an archipelago of
low-lying islands and
atolls in the Indian Ocean, the existence of the Maldives is severely threatened by
sea level rise. By 2050, 80% of the country could become uninhabitable due to global warming.[49] According to the
World Bank, with "future sea levels projected to increase in the range of 10 to 100 centimeters by the year 2100, the entire country could be submerged".[50] The Maldives is striving to
adapt to climate change, and Maldivian authorities have been prominent in international
political advocacy to implement
climate change mitigation.
Climate change in Fiji is an exceptionally pressing issue for the country - as an
island nation,
Fiji is particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels,
coastal erosion and
extreme weather.[51] These changes, along with temperature rise, will displace Fijian communities and will prove disruptive to the national economy - tourism, agriculture and fisheries, the largest contributors to the nation's GDP, will be severely impacted by climate change causing increases in poverty and food insecurity.[51] As a party to both the
Kyoto Protocol and the
Paris Climate Agreement, Fiji hopes to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 which, along with national policies, will help to mitigate the impacts of climate change.[52]
The Human Rights Measurement Initiative finds that the climate crisis has worsened human rights conditions moderately (4.6 out of 6) in Fiji.[53]
The existence of the nation of
Kiribati is imperilled by rising sea levels, with the country losing land every year.[54] Many of its islands are currently or becoming inhabitable due to their shrinking size. Thus, the majority of the country's population resides in only a handful of islands, with more than half of its residents living on one island alone,
Tarawa. This leads to other issues such as severe overcrowding in such a small area.[55] In 1999, the uninhabited islands of
Tebua Tarawa and
Abanuea both disappeared underwater.[56] The
government's
Kiribati Adaptation Program was launched in 2003 to mitigate the country's vulnerability to the issue.[57] In 2008, fresh water supplies began being encroached by seawater, prompting President
Anote Tong to request international assistance to begin relocating the country's population elsewhere.[58]
Climate change in the Marshall Islands is a major issue for the country. As with many countries made up of low-lying islands, the
Marshall Islands is highly vulnerable to
sea level rise and other impacts of
climate change. The atoll and capital city of
Majuro are particularly vulnerable, and the issue poses significant implications for the country's population. These threats have prompted Marshallese political leaders to make climate change a key diplomatic issue, who have responded with initiatives such as the
Majuro Declaration.
The Human Rights Measurement Initiative[59] finds that the climate crisis has worsened human rights conditions in the Marshall Islands greatly (5.0 out of 6). [60] Human rights experts reported that the climate crisis has negatively impacted the economy, increased rates of unemployment, and lead to relocations to higher areas or migrations to other countries. [60]
Palau has lost at least one third of its coral reefs due to climate change related weather patterns. We also lost most of our agricultural production due to drought and extreme high tides. These are not theoretical, scientific losses -- they are the losses of our resources and our livelihoods.... For island states, time is not running out. It has run out. And our path may very well be the window to your own future and the future of our planet.
Between 1947 and 2014, six islands of the
Solomon Islands disappeared due to
sea level rise, while another six shrunk by between 20 and 62 per cent.
Nuatambu Island was the most populated of these with 25 families living on it; 11 houses washed into the sea by 2011.[63]
The Human Rights Measurement Initiative[64] finds that the climate crisis has worsened human rights conditions in the Solomon Islands greatly (5.0 out of 6).[65] Human rights experts provided that the climate crisis has contributed to conflict in communities, negative future socio-economic outlook, and food instability.[65]
Tuvalu is a small Polynesian island nation located in the Pacific Ocean. It can be found about halfway between Hawaii and Australia. It is made up of nine tiny islands, five of which are coral atolls while the other four consists of land rising from the sea bed. All are low-lying islands with no point on Tuvalu being higher than 4.5m above sea level.[66] The analysis of 15+1⁄2 years of sea level data from
Funafuti, identified that the sea level rise rate was 5.9 mm per year (in the 15+1⁄2 years to September 2008) and the sea level in the Funafuti area rose approximately 9.14 cm during that period of time.[67] As well as this, the dangerous peak high tides in Tuvalu are becoming higher causing greater danger. In response to sea level rise, Tuvalu is considering resettlement plans in addition to pushing for increased action in confronting climate change at the UN.[68] On 10 November 2023, Tuvalu signed the Falepili Union, a
bilateral diplomatic relationship with Australia, under which Australia will provide a pathway for citizens of Tuvalu to migrate to Australia, to enable
climate-related mobility for Tuvaluans.[69][70]
Between 1950 and 2010, São Tomé and Príncipe experienced an increase of 1.5 °C in average annual temperature due to
climate change.[71] The country is considered highly
vulnerable to its impacts. Climate change is projected to lead to an increased number of warm days and nights, hotter temperatures and increased precipitation.[72]Sea level rise and
saltwater intrusion will be major issues for the islands[72] and climate change will have major impacts on
agriculture in the country.[73] The
government began developing a National Adaptation Plan in 2022 to implement
climate adaptation efforts, with support from the
United Nations Environment Programme.[74]
Seychelles
In the
Seychelles, the impacts of climate change were observable in precipitation, air temperature and
sea surface temperature by the early 2000s. Climate change poses a threat to its
coral reef ecosystems, with drought conditions in 1999 and a mass
bleaching event in 1998. Water management will be critically impacted.[4]
Singapore recognises that
climate change in the decades ahead will have major implications for the island-nation. It has taken a three-prong approach to the issue - researching how the nation will be affected in specific details, implementing mitigation measures and adapting to the coming changes. For the research, a Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS) has been established.[75]
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