Emissions, impacts and responses of South Asian countries related to climate change
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Climate change in South Asia is having significant impacts already which are expected to intensify as global temperatures rise due to
climate change. The
South Asia region consists of the eight countries:
Afghanistan,[note 1]Pakistan,
India,
Nepal,
Bhutan,
Bangladesh, the
Maldives and
Sri Lanka. In the 2017 edition of
Germanwatch's Climate Risk Index,
Bangladesh and
Pakistan ranked sixth and seventh respectively as the countries most affected by climate change in the period from 1996 to 2015, while India ranked fourth among the list of countries most affected by climate change in 2015.[4] The
Indian subcontinent is one of the most vulnerable regions globally to a number of direct and indirect effects of climate change, including
sea level rise, cyclonic activity, and changes in
ambient temperature and precipitation patterns. Ongoing sea level rise has already submerged several low-lying islands in the
Sundarbans region, displacing thousands of people.
Among the countries of
South Asia,
Bangladesh is likely to be the worst affected by climate change. This is owing to a combination of geographical factors, such as its flat, low-lying, and delta-exposed
topography,[5] and socio-economic factors, including its high
population density, levels of
poverty, and dependence on agriculture.[6] Its sea level, temperature, and evaporation are increasing, and the changes in precipitation and cross-boundary river flows are already beginning to cause drainage congestion. There is a reduction in freshwater availability, disturbance of morphological processes,[clarification needed] and a higher intensity of flooding.
Greenhouse gas emissions
Bangladesh only contributes 0.21%[7][unreliable source?] of the world's emissions yet it has 2.11% of the world's population.[8][unreliable source?] In contrast, the United States makes up about 4.25 percent[9][unreliable source?] of the world's population, yet they produce approximately 15 percent of the pollution[10] that causes global warming.
According to data from 2020, China, the United States, India, and Russia are the world's biggest emitters of CO2.[10]
Impacts on the natural environment
Temperature and weather changes
Regarding local temperature rises, the
IPCC figure shows that mean annual value of temperature rise by the end of the century in South Asia is 3.3 °C with the min-max range as 2.7 – 4.7 °C. The mean value for
Tibet would be higher with mean increase of 3.8 °C and min-max figures of 2.6 and 6.1 °C respectively, which implies harsher warming conditions for the
Himalayan watersheds.[11]
Increased landslides and flooding are projected to have an impact upon states such as
Assam.[12] Ecological disasters, such as a 1998
coral bleaching event that killed off more than 70% of
corals in the reef ecosystems off
Lakshadweep and the
Andamans, and was brought on by elevated ocean temperatures tied to global warming, are also projected to become increasingly common.[13][14][15]
Sea level rise
The global average sea level rose by 3.1 mm per year from 1993 to 2003.[16] More recent analysis of a number of semi empirical models predict a sea level rise of about 1 metre by the year 2100.
[17]
Ongoing sea level rises have already submerged several low-lying islands in the
Sundarbans, displacing thousands of people.[18] Temperature rises on the Tibetan Plateau are causing
Himalayan glaciers to retreat. It has been predicted that the historical city of
Thatta and
Badin, in
Sindh,
Pakistan would have been swallowed by the sea by 2025, as the sea is already encroaching 80 acres of land here, every day.
[19]
Some territories in India were already evacuated due to increase in tidal flooding. Large part of some Indian cities will be below tide-level by 2030:
Mumbai,
Kolkata,
Cuttack,
Kochi and more.
Navi Mumbai will be below this level almost entirely.[20]
In October 2019, a study was published in the
Nature Communications journal. The journal claims that the number of people who will be impacted from sea level rise during 21st century is 3 times higher than the previous expected number. By 2050, 150 million will be under the water line during high tide and 300 million will live in zones with flooding every year. By the year 2100, those numbers differ sharply depending on the emission scenario. In a low emission scenario, 140 million will be under water during high tide and 280 million will have flooding each year. In high emission scenario, the numbers reach up to 540 million and 640 million, respectively. 70% of these people will live in 8 countries in Asia:
China,
Bangladesh,
India,
Indonesia,
Thailand,
Vietnam,
Japan, and the
Philippines. Large parts of
Ho Chi Minh City,
Mumbai,
Shanghai,
Bangkok and
Basra could be inundated.[21][22]
Population that will live in a zone of annual flooding by 2050 in millions, in 6 countries in Asia, according to old and new estimates:[23]
Country
Old estimate
New estimate
China
29
93
Bangladesh
5
42
India
5
36
Vietnam
9
31
Indonesia
5
23
Thailand
1
12
Impacts on people
Economic impacts
India has the world's highest
social cost of carbon.[24] The
Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research has reported that, if the predictions relating to global warming made by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change come to fruition, climate-related factors could cause India's
GDP to decline by up to 9%; contributing to this would be shifting growing seasons for major crops such as rice, production of which could fall by 40%. Around seven million people are projected to be displaced due to, among other factors, submersion of parts of
Mumbai and
Chennai, if global temperatures were to rise by a mere 2 °C (3.6 °F).[25]
If severe climate changes occur, Bangladesh will lose land along the coast line.[26][unreliable source?] This will be highly damaging to Bangladeshis especially because about 50% population of Bangladeshis are employed in the agriculture sector,[27] with rice as the largest production.[28][29] If no further steps are taken to improve the current conditions global warming will
affect the economy severely worsening the present issues further.[30] The climate change would increase expenditure towards health care, cool drinks, alcoholic beverages, air conditioners, ice cream, cosmetics,
agricultural chemicals, and other products.[31]
Agriculture
Climate Change in India and Pakistan will have a disproportionate impact on the more than 400 million that make up India's poor. This is because so many depend on natural resources for their food, shelter and income. More than 56% of people in India work in agriculture, while in Pakistan 43% of its population work in agriculture while many others earn their living in coastal areas.[32]
Heat waves' frequency and power are increasing in India because of climate change. The number of heat wave days has increased — not just day temperature, night temperatures increased also. 2018 was the country's sixth hottest year on record, and 11 of its 15 warmest years have occurred since 2004. The capital
New Delhi broke its all-time record with a high of 48 degrees Celsius.[33] The government is being advised by the
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in predicting and mitigating heat waves. The government of
Andhra Pradesh, for instance, is creating a Heat Wave Action Plan.[34]
Impacts on migration
Villagers in India's North Eastern state of
Meghalaya are also concerned that rising sea levels will submerge neighboring low-lying Bangladesh, resulting in an influx of refugees into Meghalaya which has few resources to handle such a situation.[35][36]
Mitigation and adaptation
There are many concrete steps which can be taken to address the threat of climate change. Incentives can be provided for
electric vehicles or public transport and this curb the impact of the transportation sector. However, though these suggestions have been made, there is no political will to carry them out. Households can be given electricity and slowly phasing out
LPG (the current trend is to increase the usage of the latter). Rainwater can be harvested and the rivers could be restored to their original flow so that they can bring back the wetlands and the natural ways of
silt, nutrient and wildlife flow. All of these use technologies and can be implemented by the 11-year period the IPCC has stipulated before which any change must be made if we are to evade the adverse effects of climate change. So far, though the initiatives by the
Delhi Metro to switch to solar power- or similar efforts by
Kochi airport-are a step in the right direction, such moves are few and far between. These models should be taken up by other agents as well.[34]
The latest accord, the
2015 Paris Agreement, takes a different approach. The 197 signatory countries have promised to limit global temperature increase to just 1.5 °C over pre-industrialization levels, but each country has set its own targets. India, for instance, has promised to cut its emissions intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) by 33-35% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels (Chart 1a/ 1b).[37]
Adaptation
The Asia-Pacific Climate Change Adaption Information Platform (AP-PLAT) was launched in 2019. It aims to provide Asia and Pacific countries with data on climate change and convert it to adaptation and resilience measures.[38]
Combined with infrequent
earthquakes, climate-related disasters such as
floods, flash floods,
avalanches and heavy snowfalls on average affect over 200,000 people every year,[39] causing massive losses of lives, livelihoods and properties.[40][41][42][43] These interacting factors, particularly protracted conflicts which erode and challenge the ability to handle, adapt to and plan for climate change at individual and national levels, often turn climate change risks and hazards into disasters.
Although the country itself contributes only very little to global warming with regards to
greenhouse gas emissions, droughts due to climate change affect and will affect Afghanistan to a high degree.
Climate change is a critical issue in
Bangladesh[51] as the country is one of the most
vulnerable to the
effects of climate change.[52][53] In the 2020 edition of
Germanwatch's Climate Risk Index, it ranked seventh in the list of countries most affected by climate calamities during the period 1999–2018.[54]Bangladesh's vulnerability to the effects of climate change is due to a combination of geographical factors, such as its flat, low-lying, and delta-exposed
topography,[55] and socio-economic factors, including its high
population density, levels of
poverty, and dependence on agriculture.[56] The impacts and potential threats include sea level rise, temperature rise, food crises, droughts, floods, and cyclones.[57]
Temperature in Bangladesh has risen by 2.74 Degrees Celsius in the past 20 years. The environmentalists believe if the trend moves on like this, 17% of Bangladesh will be under water by 2040.
Bhutan has faced ongoing and immediate climate change since the late twentieth century. Tangible climate change has resulted in the warming and recession of many of
Bhutan's glaciers, increasing the frequency and severity of
glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Bhutan has also seen a shift in agriculture patterns due to climate change, prompting concern over the stability of
agriculture in Bhutan.
India is ranked fourth among the list of countries most affected by
climate change in 2015.[58] India emits about 3 gigatonnes (
Gt)
CO2eq of
greenhouse gases each year; about two and a half tons per person, which is less than the world average.[59] The country emits 7% of global emissions, despite having 17% of the world population.[60] Temperature rises on the
Tibetan Plateau are causing
Himalayan glaciers to retreat, threatening the flow rate of the
Ganges,
Brahmaputra,
Yamuna and other major rivers. A 2007
World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) report states that the
Indus River may run dry for the same reason.[61]Heat waves' frequency and intensity are increasing in India because of climate change. Severe landslides and floods are projected to become increasingly common in such states as
Assam.[62] The
climate change performance index of India ranks eighth among 63 countries which account for 92% of all GHG emissions in the year 2021.[63]
Temperatures in India have risen by 0.7 °C (1.3 °F) between 1901 and 2018.[64]
According to some current projections, the number and severity of
droughts in India will have markedly increased by the end of the present century.[65]
Climate change is a major issue for the
Maldives. As an archipelago of
low-lying islands and
atolls in the Indian Ocean, the existence of the Maldives is severely threatened by
sea level rise. By 2050, 80% of the country could become uninhabitable due to global warming.[66] According to the
World Bank, with "future sea levels projected to increase in the range of 10 to 100 centimeters by the year 2100, the entire country could be submerged".[67] The Maldives is striving to
adapt to climate change, and Maldivian authorities have been prominent in international
political advocacy to implement
climate change mitigation.
Globally,
Nepal is ranked fourth in terms of
vulnerability to climate change. Floods spread across the foothills of the
Himalayas and bring landslides, leaving tens of thousands of houses and vast areas of farmland and roads destroyed.[68] In the 2020 edition of Germanwatch's Climate Risk Index, it was judged to be the ninth hardest-hit nation by climate calamities during the period 1999 to 2018.[69] Nepal is a
least developed country, with 28.6 percent of the population living in multidimensional poverty.[70] Analysis of trends from 1971 to 2014 by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) shows that the average annual maximum temperature has been increasing by 0.056 °C per year.[71] Precipitation extremes are found to be increasing.[72] A national-level survey on the perception-based survey on climate change reported that locals accurately perceived the shifts in temperature but their perceptions of precipitation change did not converge with the instrumental records.[73] Data reveals that more than 80 percent of property loss due to disasters is attributable to climate hazards, particularly water-related events such as floods, landslides and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).[74]
Climate change in Pakistan is a major issue for the country. Pakistan is highly
vulnerable to
climate change. As with the changing climate in South Asia as a whole, the
climate of Pakistan has changed over the past several decades, with significant impacts on the environment and people.[75] In addition to increased heat, drought and
extreme weather in parts of the country, the
melting of glaciers in the
Himalayas has impacted some of the important
rivers of Pakistan. Between 1999 and 2018, Pakistan ranked 5th in the countries affected by extreme weather caused by climate change.[76] Pakistan is prone to a range of natural disasters, including cyclones, floods, drought, intense rainfall, and earthquakes. According to scientific research, climate change played a substantial role in the devastating floods of 2022, which had a direct impact on over 30 million people in Pakistan, resulting in the loss of lives, damage to public infrastructure, and displacement from homes.[77] Climate change poses a significant menace to Pakistan's economy and security. [78]
Climate change is an important issue in
Sri Lanka, and its effects threaten to impact both human and natural systems. Roughly 50 percent of its 22 million citizens live in low-lying coastal areas in the west, south, and south-west of the island, and are at risk of future
sea level rise.[79] Climate change also threatens the island's
biodiversity, including its
marine ecosystem and coastal
coral reef environments. Sea-level rise due to climate change has the potential to affect the overall abundance of
endemic species.
Sri Lanka's coastal regions, such as the
Northern Province and the
Northern Western Province, are considered major hotspots and extremely
vulnerable to climate change. These maritime provinces are the most densely populated.[80] In addition to being a threat to Sri Lanka's
biodiversity, climate change may cause disastrous consequences on various levels in such areas. Such consequences include: Affecting agricultural productivity, causing natural disasters like
floods and
droughts, increasing the
spread of infectious illnesses, and finally undermining the living standards.[81]
^Sáez, Lawrence (2012). The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) : an emerging collaboration architecture. [Place of publication not identified]. p. 35.
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