Carbon Tracker was founded by UK fund manager Mark Campanale, with
Jeremy Leggett serving as chairman.[3] The organisation's first two reports – Unburnable Carbon (2011) and Unburnable Carbon (2013) – argued that up to two-thirds of the world's known reserves and resources of oil, coal and gas could not be burned while avoiding dangerous levels of
climate change. As summarized by Financial Times columnist
Martin Wolf: "The conclusion is quite simple: burning known reserves of fossil fuels is incompatible with meeting the climate targets governments have set themselves."[4]
The
Paris Agreement, adopted internationally in December 2015, aims to keep the global average temperature rise below 2 °C of warming, to avoid and reduce some of the most severe risks and impacts of
climate change. But this requires carbon dioxide levels emitted in the atmosphere by 2050 to not exceed a "
carbon budget" of up to 900
gigatonnes.[5] Drawing on research from the
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Carbon Tracker's reports showed that the world's reserves and resources of coal, oil and gas, if burned, would emit more than three times this amount: approximately 2800 gigatonnes. This raises the possibility that, by financing the development and production of fossil fuels that might never be consumed, investors are exposed to the risk of "
stranded assets", rendered unprofitable by climate regulations and technological alternatives such as
renewable energy.[6] Reuters described this idea – that investors were financing a "carbon bubble" – as having become 'part of "the climate change lexicon"; it has formed the basis for warnings about "
stranded assets" by
Bank of England Governor
Mark Carney and inspired groups like
Norway's sovereign wealth fund to divest billions in fossil fuel holdings'.[7]
Carbon Tracker's subsequent research investigated the implications of lower demand and low-carbon scenarios for the different fossil fuels of fossil fuels against lower demand, price and carbon emissions scenarios.[8][9][10][11]
Mark Carney echoed Carbon Tracker's warning on stranded assets in a 2015 speech to London insurers.[12] followed by the launch of a task force on climate-related financial disclosures under the auspices of the
Financial Stability Board.[13]
How to waste over half a trillion dollars (2020) [28]
Poland's energy dilemma: new gas power traps taxpayers in a costly future (2022)[29][30]
In the media
In 2012, a Rolling Stone article by writer and campaigner
Bill McKibben presented Carbon Tracker's research on the
carbon bubble to a wider audience[31][32] The article led McKibben to start a campaign calling for
fossil fuel divestment which, as of December 2015, saw organisations managing over $5.46 trillion committing to partial or total divestment.[33][34]
Carbon Tracker's analysis has been cited by investment banks
HSBC,[35]Citi[36] and
JP Morgan,[37] consultancies such as
Accenture,[38] and the
Dutch Central Bank.[39] It has also provoked a range of responses from major oil companies: ExxonMobil has stated it is 'confident that none of our hydrocarbon reserves are now or will become "stranded."' [40]Chevron, while admitting that "certain high-cost assets around the world could be impacted by a hypothetical GHG-constrained case", has similarly argued that the risk of stranded assets is "manageable".[41] Different positions have also been expressed by
BP[42] and
Statoil.[43]
According to the Carbon Tracker Initiative report in March 2020
wind farms and
solar plants will soon be cheaper than running existing coal-fired power stations and coal power would struggle if markets were priced fairly.[44]
^Clark, Pilita (29 September 2015).
"Mark Carney warns investors face 'huge' climate change losses". Financial Times.
Archived from the original on 25 March 2017. Retrieved 24 January 2017. "wholesale reassessment of prospects, especially if it were to occur suddenly, could potentially destabilise markets," he (Mark Carney) said, echoing warnings from the Carbon Tracker think-tank in London that pioneered the stranded carbon assets idea several years ago
^
Gray, Matt; D'souza, Durand; Sundaresan, Sriya (24 October 2019). Apocoalypse now. London, United Kingdom: Carbon Tracker. Registration required to download.
^
Gray, Matt; Sundaresan, Sriya (March 2020). How to waste over half a trillion dollars: the economic implications of deflationary renewable energy for coal power investments. London, United Kingdom: Carbon Tracker. Landing page. Registration required to download.
^
Sims, Jonathan; Sani, Lorenzo (February 2022). Poland's energy dilemma: new gas power traps taxpayers in a costly future — Analysts note. London, United Kingdom: Carbon Tracker Initiative. Registration required to download.
^"I did base that article, and the subsequent divestment campaign, on CTI's numbers," he [Bill McKibben, n.b.] tells RTCC in an email." www.climatechangenews.com/2015/08/18/terrifying-math-how-carbon-tracker-changed-the-climate-debate/
^"Commitments".
Archived from the original on 19 November 2017. Retrieved 3 October 2016.