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Kelly: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Masters: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Arizona |
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona.
The seat was previously held by Republican John McCain, who won his final term in 2016 and died on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill the seat. Kyl resigned at the end of that year and Ducey replaced him with Martha McSally, who then lost to Democrat Mark Kelly in 2020.
Primaries in Arizona took place on August 2, 2022. Kelly won renomination without opposition, while venture capitalist Blake Masters won the Republican nomination against a large field of candidates. Although Arizona typically leans Republican, Kelly led Masters by low single digits in aggregate polling. Kelly held a significant fundraising advantage until many Republican-aligned groups began spending to assist Masters in the final weeks of the campaign. [1] On November 1, Libertarian nominee Marc Victor dropped out of the race and endorsed Masters. [2] [3] [4]
Kelly won re-election, defeating Masters by a comfortable margin of about 5 points. [5] This was the first time Democrats won a full term to this seat since 1962. The 2022 race was competitive and seen as crucial to determining party control of the U.S. Senate; with Kelly's victory in Arizona and a Democratic victory in Nevada, in addition to a Democratic gain in Pennsylvania, it was projected on November 12 that the Democratic caucus would retain control of the Senate in the 118th United States Congress. [6] [7] Masters conceded the race to Kelly on November 15, 2022. [8]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Mark Kelly (incumbent) | 589,400 | 100.0% | |
Total votes | 589,400 | 100.0% |
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Mark Brnovich |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Michael McGuire |
Justin Olson |
Undecided [a] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | July 27 – August 1, 2022 | August 2, 2022 | 14.5% | 22.0% | 37.0% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 17.7% | Masters +15.0 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on
Phabricator and on
MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Brnovich |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Michael McGuire |
Justin Olson |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R) | July 30 – August 1, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 16% | 24% | 39% | 7% | 4% | – | 9% |
Emerson College | July 28–30, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 14% | 22% | 40% | 12% | 3% | – | 9% |
Rasmussen Reports | July 27–28, 2022 | 710 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 19% | 31% | 10% | 3% | 6% | 15% |
OH Predictive Insights | July 27, 2022 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 12% | 21% | 36% | 5% | 3% | – | 22% |
Battleground Connect (R) | July 26–27, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 16% | 30% | 28% | 8% | 6% | – | 12% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | July 25–27, 2022 | 1,071 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 15% | 27% | 35% | 8% | 6% | – | 10% |
Battleground Connect (R) | July 17–18, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 16% | 33% | 28% | 7% | 2% | – | 14% |
Cygnal (R) | July 12–13, 2022 | 419 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 18% | 20% | 30% | 5% | 2% | – | 25% |
Battleground Connect (R) | July 7–9, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 16% | 29% | 27% | 4% | – | – | 24% |
HighGround Public Affairs (R) | July 2–7, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 13% | 14% | 23% | 5% | 2% | – | 44% |
Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners | July 5–6, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 10% | 14% | 26% | 5% | 0% | – | 45% |
OH Predictive Insights | June 30 – July 2, 2022 | 515 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 14% | 18% | 25% | 6% | 2% | – | 35% |
Public Policy Polling (D) | June 28, 2022 | 595 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 15% | 10% | 29% | 5% | – | – | 41% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | June 7–9, 2022 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 24% | 17% | 29% | 4% | 4% | – | 22% |
Data Orbital (R) | June 1–3, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 18% | 20% | 15% | – | – | 12% | 36% |
Fabrizio Lee (R) [A] | May 17–18, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 18% | 18% | 22% | 7% | 2% | – | 34% |
Cygnal (R) [B] | April 28–30, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 19% | 20% | 19% | 7% | 2% | – | 33% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | April 25–28, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 24% | 25% | 19% | 8% | 3% | – | 21% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [C] | April 21–24, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 22% | 25% | 16% | 6% | – | – | 31% |
OH Predictive Insights | April 4–5, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 21% | 16% | 9% | 6% | 3% | – | 45% |
Data Orbital (R) | April 1–3, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 20% | 26% | 10% | 7% | 4% | – | 33% |
HighGround Public Affairs (R) | March 26–27, 2022 | 264 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 4% | – | 8% | 61% |
Fabrizio Lee (R) [A] | March 13–14, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 3% | 1% | – | 52% |
Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners | March 9–12, 2022 | 433 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 20% | 15% | 15% | 3% | 1% | – | 45% |
Data Orbital (R) | March 2022 | – (LV) | – | 23% | 17% | 14% | 4% | 5% | – | 37% |
Data Orbital (R) | February 11–13, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 22% | 17% | 15% | 5% | 5% | – | 37% |
co/efficient (R) | February 6–8, 2022 | 755 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 17% | 13% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 11% | 44% |
OH Predictive Insights | January 11–13, 2022 | 302 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 25% | 7% | 6% | 11% | 4% | – | 47% |
OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 252 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 27% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 2% | – | 46% |
Fabrizio Lee (R) [A] | October 26–28, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 26% | 4% | 14% | 2% | 2% | <1% [c] | 52% |
OnMessage Inc. (R) [D] | September 9–12, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 5% | 7% | 4% | – | – | 43% |
OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 311 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 27% | 3% | 6% | 14% | – | – | 51% |
Fabrizio Lee (R) [A] | August 4–8, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 29% | 7% | 5% | 3% | – | <1% [c] | 56% |
HighGround Public Affairs (R) | May 3–5, 2021 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 28% | – | 1% | 1% | – | – | 61% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Kirk Adams |
Andy Biggs |
Mark Brnovich |
Doug Ducey |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Michael McGuire |
Justin Olson |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
co/efficient (R) | February 6–8, 2022 | 755 (LV) | ± 3.6% | – | – | 14% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 9% | 38% |
OH Predictive Insights | January 11–13, 2022 | 302 (RV) | ± 5.6% | – | – | 13% | 35% | 4% | 4% | 9% | 2% | – | 34% |
WPA Intelligence (R) [E] | April 5–6, 2021 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | 46% | – | 45% | – | – | – | – | – | 9% |
OH Predictive Insights | March 8–12, 2021 | 690 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 2% [d] | 27% | – | – | – | 2% | 3% | – | – | 67% |
6% [e] | 26% | – | – | – | 2% | 10% | – | – | 56% | ||||
Data Orbital (R) [F] | February 17–19, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 2% | 36% | – | – | 1% | 1% | 3% | – | 4% | 53% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Blake Masters | 327,198 | 40.24% | |
Republican | Jim Lamon | 228,467 | 28.10% | |
Republican | Mark Brnovich | 144,092 | 17.72% | |
Republican | Michael McGuire | 71,100 | 8.75% | |
Republican | Justin Olson | 41,985 | 5.16% | |
Write-in | 226 | 0.03% | ||
Total votes | 813,068 | 100.0% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Marc Victor | 3,065 | 100.0% | |
Total votes | 3,065 | 100.0% |
Initially expected to be one of the most widely contested elections in the nation, Kelly amassed a massive fundraising advantage over Masters, raising a record $75 million compared to Masters's $12 million. [68] Due to the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, which reversed Roe v. Wade, Kelly spent the campaign heavily attacking Masters over his anti-abortion stance, which was seen as hurting Masters especially among women voters. He also attacked Masters's support for privatizing Social Security, as Arizona has many retired seniors that use the program. Masters's claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen also hurt him among voters. [69]
With the limited amount of money he had, Masters attempted to portray Kelly as weak on illegal immigration, supportive of spending programs that caused inflation, and too supportive of President Joe Biden. In the final weeks of the campaign, Republican groups began to increase the amount of money they were spending on the race, and many news outlets moved the race from lean Democrat to tossup. However, in the end, Kelly relatively easily defeated Masters, which helped Democrats in retaining the Senate. [70] According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Kelly won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Masters's defeat. [71]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [72] | Tossup | October 27, 2022 |
Inside Elections [73] | Tilt D | October 21, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [74] | Lean D | October 19, 2022 |
Politico [75] | Tossup | October 27, 2022 |
RCP [76] | Tossup | October 25, 2022 |
Fox News [77] | Tossup | October 25, 2022 |
DDHQ [78] | Lean D | October 25, 2022 |
FiveThirtyEight [79] | Lean D | October 25, 2022 |
The Economist [80] | Lean D | November 1, 2022 |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican | Libertarian |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee
W Withdrawn |
|||||||
Mark Kelly | Blake Masters | Marc Victor | |||||
1 | October 6, 2022 | Arizona PBS | Ted Simons | Youtube | P | P | P |
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Blake Masters (R) |
Undecided [f] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RealClearPolitics | October 30 – November 7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 48.0% | 48.3% | 3.7% | Masters +0.3 |
FiveThirtyEight | September 7, 2021 – November 7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 48.6% | 47.1% | 4.3% | Kelly +1.5 |
270ToWin | November 3–7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 47.9% | 46.6% | 5.5% | Kelly +1.3 |
Average | 48.3% | 47.2% | 4.5% | Kelly +1.1 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on
Phabricator and on
MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Blake Masters (R) |
Marc Victor (L) |
Other | Undecided | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 5–7, 2022 | 1,094 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 48% | 1% | – | 4% | ||||||||
Data Orbital (R) | November 4–6, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 1% [g] | 3% | ||||||||
Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 46% | 2% | – | 3% | ||||||||
Data for Progress (D) | November 2–6, 2022 | 1,359 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 2% | – | – | ||||||||
Targoz Market Research | November 2–6, 2022 | 560 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 47% | 2% | – | – | ||||||||
KAConsulting (R) [G] | November 2–3, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 46% | – | 1% | 6% | ||||||||
InsiderAdvantage (R) | November 2, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 48% | 2% | – | 2% | ||||||||
HighGround Inc. | November 1–2, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | – | 2% [h] | 6% | ||||||||
Remington Research Group (R) | November 1–2, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 47% | 2% | – | 3% | ||||||||
Marist College | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 45% | – | 1% [i] | 8% | ||||||||
1,015 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 47% | – | 1% [j] | 2% | ||||||||||
Big Data Poll (R) | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 1,051 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | – | – | 4% | ||||||||
Patriot Polling (R) | October 30 – November 2, 2022 | 814 (RV) | – | 49% | 48% | – | – | 4% | ||||||||
Civiqs | October 29 – November 2, 2022 | 852 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 49% | – | 2% [k] | 1% | ||||||||
Victor withdraws from the race and endorses Masters | ||||||||||||||||
Emerson College | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 48% | 3% | 1% [l] | 1% | ||||||||
48% | 48% | 3% | 1% [m] | – | ||||||||||||
The Phillips Academy | October 29–30, 2022 | 985 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 47% | 2% | – | 5% | ||||||||
Fox News | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | – | 4% [n] | 5% | ||||||||
Wick Insights (R) | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,122 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 47% | – | 3% [o] | 1% | ||||||||
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R) [E] | October 24–26, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 46% | 3% | – | – | ||||||||
OH Predictive Insights | October 24–26, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | 3% | – | 3% | ||||||||
Siena College/NYT | October 24–26, 2022 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 45% | 1% | – | 3% | ||||||||
BSP Research/Shaw & Co. [H] | October 19–26, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 40% | – | 5% [p] | 11% | ||||||||
InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 24–25, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 43% | 6% | – | 6% | ||||||||
co/efficient (R) | October 20–21, 2022 | 1,111 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 45% | 4% | – | 4% | ||||||||
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [I] | October 14–18, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | 2% | <1% [q] | 6% | ||||||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) [J] | October 16–17, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 46% | 3% | – | 4% | ||||||||
Data for Progress (D) | October 11–17, 2022 | 893 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | 3% | – | 4% | ||||||||
Wick Insights (R) | October 8–14, 2022 | 1,058 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 46% | – | 2% [r] | 3% | ||||||||
HighGround Inc. [K] | October 12–13, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 40% | 5% | 3% [s] | 10% | ||||||||
InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 11, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 42% | 5% | – | 7% | ||||||||
Kurt Jetta (D) [L] | October 9–10, 2022 | 894 (RV) | – | 54% | 32% | – | – | 15% | ||||||||
551 (LV) | 55% | 38% | – | – | 7% | |||||||||||
Ascend Action (R) | October 8–10, 2022 | 954 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 44% | – | 5% [t] | 2% | ||||||||
OnMessage Inc. (R) [M] | October 8–10, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 4% | – | 7% | ||||||||
OH Predictive Insights | October 4–6, 2022 | 674 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 33% | 15% | – | 7% | ||||||||
Big Data Poll (R) | October 2–5, 2022 | 970 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 45% | 2% | – | 7% | ||||||||
YouGov/CBS News | September 30 – October 4, 2022 | 1,164 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 48% | – | – | 1% | ||||||||
CNN/SSRS | September 26 – October 2, 2022 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 42% | – | 7% [u] | – | ||||||||
795 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 45% | – | 4% [v] | – | ||||||||||
Fox News | September 22–26, 2022 | 1,008 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 40% | – | 6% [w] | 9% | ||||||||
Suffolk University | September 21–25, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 42% | 2% | – | 7% | ||||||||
Marist College | September 19–22, 2022 | 1,260 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 41% | – | – | 8% | ||||||||
1,076 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 45% | – | – | 5% | ||||||||||
Data for Progress (D) | September 15–19, 2022 | 768 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 47% | 2% | – | 3% | ||||||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 14–17, 2022 | 1080 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 45% | 3% | – | 5% | ||||||||
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | September 8–15, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 42% | 4% | – | 4% | ||||||||
52% | 45% | – | – | 3% | ||||||||||||
OnMessage Inc. (R) [M] | September 6–11, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 40% | 6% | – | 5% | ||||||||
Kurt Jetta (D) [L] | September 9–10, 2022 | 972 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 32% | – | – | 15% | ||||||||
563 (LV) | 55% | 35% | – | – | 9% | |||||||||||
OH Predictive Insights | September 6–9, 2022 | 654 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 35% | 6% | – | 12% | ||||||||
Emerson College | September 6–7, 2022 | 627 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 45% | – | 3% [x] | 5% | ||||||||
InsiderAdvantage (R) | September 6–7, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 39% | 4% | – | 12% | ||||||||
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 773 (RV) | ±4.5% | 52% | 37% | – | – | 11% | ||||||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 24–27, 2022 | 1,074 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 44% | 4% | – | 4% | ||||||||
RMG Research | August 16–22, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 43% | – | – | 7% | ||||||||
Fox News | August 12–16, 2022 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 42% | – | 2% | 6% | ||||||||
Kurt Jetta (D) [L] | August 4–8, 2022 | 1,107 (A) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 34% | – | – | 19% | ||||||||
877 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 34% | – | – | 16% | ||||||||||
512 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 54% | 40% | – | – | 7% | ||||||||||
OnMessage Inc. (R) [N] | August 1–2, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 44% | – | – | 7% | ||||||||
Beacon Research (D) [O] | July 5–20, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 34% | – | 1% | 13% | ||||||||
504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 39% | – | 2% | 8% | ||||||||||
Fabrizio Lee (R) [A] | July 13–14, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 44% | – | – | 7% | ||||||||
Change Research (D) [P] | June 24–27, 2022 | 705 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 39% | – | – | 13% | ||||||||
Blueprint Polling (D) | May 12–16, 2022 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 32% | – | – | 19% | ||||||||
OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 35% | – | – | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Mark Brnovich (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beacon Research (D) [O] | July 5–20, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 35% | 1% | 11% |
504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 40% | 2% | 7% | ||
Blueprint Polling (D) | May 12–16, 2022 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 33% | – | 18% |
Data for Progress (D) | January 21–24, 2022 | 1,469 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 39% | – | 18% |
OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 36% | – | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Jim Lamon (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beacon Research (D) [O] | July 5–20, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 34% | 2% | 14% |
504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 40% | 2% | 9% | ||
Change Research (D) [P] | June 24–27, 2022 | 705 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
Blueprint Polling (D) | May 12–16, 2022 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 34% | – | 18% |
OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 36% | – | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Michael McGuire (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 37% | 19% |
OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 35% | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Andy Biggs (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 36% | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Doug Ducey (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D) | January 21–24, 2022 | 1,469 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 47% | 4% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Kelli Ward (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 36% | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 35% | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Jack McCain (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 29% | 28% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Kimberly Yee (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 35% | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | May 9–16, 2022 | 938 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 39% | – | 21% |
HighGround Public Affairs (R) | March 26–27, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | 2% | 12% |
OH Predictive Insights | March 7–15, 2022 | 753 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 37% | 39% | – | 24% |
Change Research (D) [P] | March 2022 | – (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | – | 11% |
OH Predictive Insights | January 11–13, 2022 | 855 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 38% | – | 19% |
OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 713 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 39% | – | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio Lee (R) [A] | July 13–14, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio Lee (R) [A] | July 13–14, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Mark Kelly (incumbent) | 1,322,027 | 51.39% | +0.23% | |
Republican | Blake Masters | 1,196,308 | 46.51% | -2.30% | |
Libertarian | Marc Victor (withdrawn) | 53,762 | 2.09% | N/A | |
Write-in | 197 | 0.01% | -0.02% | ||
Total votes | 2,572,294 | 100.0% | |||
Democratic hold |
By county
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Kelly won 5 out of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans. [128]
District | Kelly | Masters | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 52% | 46% | David Schweikert |
2nd | 47% | 51% | Tom O'Halleran ( 117th Congress) |
Eli Crane ( 118th Congress) | |||
3rd | 76% | 21% | Ruben Gallego |
4th | 57% | 41% | Greg Stanton |
5th | 44% | 54% | Andy Biggs |
6th | 54% | 44% | Ann Kirkpatrick ( 117th Congress) |
Juan Ciscomani ( 118th Congress) | |||
7th | 68% | 30% | Raúl Grijalva |
8th | 46% | 52% | Debbie Lesko |
9th | 38% | 60% | Paul Gosar |
He's [Mark Kelly's] now seeking a full six-year term.
The group, known as End Citizens United and Let America Vote, is endorsing Democratic Sens. Mark Kelly of Arizona, ...
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