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All 6 Oregon seats to the United States House of Representatives | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Oregon |
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The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Oregon were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the six U.S. representatives from the state of Oregon, one from each of the state's six congressional districts. Primaries for these seats were held on May 17, 2022. The elections coincided with the elections and primaries of other federal and state offices.
District boundaries were redrawn [1] to ensure that the districts are apportioned based on data from the 2020 United States census, which added a sixth seat to Oregon's delegation. [2] Democrats won the new sixth district, but Republicans gained Oregon's fifth district, leaving the Congressional delegation with a 4 to 2 party split in favor of the Democrats. This was the first time since 1994 that Republicans won more than one House seat in Oregon.
Redistricting
Ahead of the 2022 elections, Oregon redrew its congressional districts as part of the 2020 United States redistricting cycle. Oregon gained a sixth congressional district during this cycle. [2] On September 20, 2021, the Oregon State Senate passed new congressional maps that were favored by Democrats on a party-line vote, along with state legislative maps. [3] The congressional map contained 5 Democratic-leaning districts and 1 Republican-leaning district. Tina Kotek, the Democratic speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, had negotiated a deal with Republicans to give them equal say on redistricting matters, but she abandoned the deal after the Senate passed its maps. [4] House Democrats made changes to the proposed congressional map that made it less favorable towards Democrats, but Republicans still opposed the map. In response, House Republicans skipped a floor session, which denied House Democrats a quorum and blocked them from being able to pass their maps. [5] On September 27, the legislature's deadline to approve new maps, most House Republicans showed up to vote. The House's proposed congressional map passed the House and Senate on party-line votes, and was approved by governor Kate Brown the same day. [6]
District 1
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 County results Bonamici: 50–60% 60-70% 80-90% Mann: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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From 2012 to 2020, the 1st district was located in northwestern Oregon and included the western Portland metro area, including the Portland suburbs of Beaverton and Hillsboro, and parts of Portland west of the Willamette River. The district was kept largely the same despite redistricting, exchanging Yamhill County for Tillamook County and taking in more of Portland. The incumbent was Democrat Suzanne Bonamici, who was re-elected with 64.6% of the vote in 2020. [7]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Suzanne Bonamici, incumbent U.S. Representative [8]
Eliminated in primary
Endorsements
Suzanne Bonamici
- Organizations
- Feminist Majority PAC [11]
- Humane Society of the United States Legislative Fund [12]
- League of Conservation Voters [13]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America [14]
- Oregon Working Families Party [15]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund [16]
- Sierra Club [17]
- Labor unions
- Oregon Education Association PAC [18]
- Service Employees International Union Oregon State Council [19]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Suzanne Bonamici (incumbent) | 80,317 | 88.5 | |
| Democratic | Scott Phillips | 7,832 | 8.6 | |
| Democratic | Christian Robertson | 2,625 | 2.9 | |
| Total votes | 90,774 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Christopher Mann | 19,605 | 68.4 | |
| Republican | Armidia "Army" Murray | 9,047 | 31.6 | |
| Total votes | 28,652 | 100.0 | ||
Independents
Candidates
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [21] | Solid D | October 5, 2021 |
| Inside Elections [22] | Solid D | October 14, 2021 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] | Safe D | October 5, 2021 |
| Politico [24] | Solid D | April 5, 2022 |
| RCP [25] | Safe D | June 9, 2022 |
| Fox News [26] | Solid D | July 11, 2022 |
| DDHQ [27] | Solid D | July 20, 2022 |
| 538 [28] | Solid D | June 30, 2022 |
| The Economist [29] | Safe D | September 28, 2022 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Suzanne Bonamici (incumbent) | 210,682 | 67.9 | |
| Republican | Christopher Mann | 99,042 | 31.9 | |
| Write-in | 519 | 0.2 | ||
| Total votes | 310,243 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
District 2
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 County results Bentz: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80-90% | |||||||||||||||||
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From 2012 to 2020, the 2nd district was the largest of Oregon's districts and covered roughly two-thirds of the state east of the Cascades, encompassing the central, eastern, and southern regions of the state, including Bend and Medford. The district was kept mostly the same during redistricting, but it did lose Bend to the 5th district and Hood River County to the 3rd, while taking in all of Josephine County and about half of Douglas County. The incumbent was Republican Cliff Bentz, who was elected with 59.9% of the vote in 2020. [7]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Cliff Bentz, incumbent U.S. Representative [31] [32]
Eliminated in primary
Endorsements
Cliff Bentz
- Organizations
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Cliff Bentz (incumbent) | 67,051 | 75.3 | |
| Republican | Mark Cavener | 17,372 | 19.5 | |
| Republican | Katherine Gallant | 4,598 | 5.2 | |
| Total votes | 89,021 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joseph Yetter III | 27,814 | 70.4 | |
| Democratic | Adam Prine | 11,669 | 29.6 | |
| Total votes | 39,483 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [21] | Solid R | October 5, 2021 |
| Inside Elections [22] | Solid R | October 14, 2021 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] | Safe R | October 5, 2021 |
| Politico [24] | Solid R | April 5, 2022 |
| RCP [25] | Safe R | June 9, 2022 |
| Fox News [26] | Solid R | July 11, 2022 |
| DDHQ [27] | Solid R | July 20, 2022 |
| 538 [28] | Solid R | June 30, 2022 |
| The Economist [29] | Safe R | September 28, 2022 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Cliff Bentz (incumbent) | 208,369 | 67.5 | |
| Democratic | Joseph Yetter III | 99,882 | 32.4 | |
| Write-in | 425 | 0.1 | ||
| Total votes | 308,676 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
District 3
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 County results Blumenaur: 60-70% 70–80% Harbour: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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From 2012 to 2020, the 3rd district encompassed the eastern Portland metro area, covering Portland and Gresham. The district was kept largely the same despite redistricting, though it did take in Hood River County, and lost some of Portland to the 1st district. The incumbent was Democrat Earl Blumenauer, who was re-elected with 73.0% of the vote in 2020. [7]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Earl Blumenauer, incumbent U.S. Representative [36]
Eliminated in primary
- Jonathan E. Polhemus [9]
Endorsements
Earl Blumenauer
- Organizations
- Labor unions
- Oregon Education Association PAC [18]
- Service Employees International Union Oregon State Council [19]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Earl Blumenauer (incumbent) | 96,386 | 94.7 | |
| Democratic | Jonathan E. Polhemus | 5,392 | 5.3 | |
| Total votes | 101,778 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Joanna Harbour | 18,031 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 18,031 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [21] | Solid D | October 5, 2021 |
| Inside Elections [22] | Solid D | October 14, 2021 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] | Safe D | October 5, 2021 |
| Politico [24] | Solid D | April 5, 2022 |
| RCP [25] | Safe D | June 9, 2022 |
| Fox News [26] | Solid D | July 11, 2022 |
| DDHQ [27] | Solid D | July 20, 2022 |
| 538 [28] | Solid D | June 30, 2022 |
| The Economist [29] | Safe D | September 28, 2022 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Earl Blumenauer (incumbent) | 212,119 | 69.9 | |
| Republican | Joanna Harbour | 79,766 | 26.3 | |
| Progressive | David E Delk | 10,982 | 3.6 | |
| Write-in | 467 | 0.2 | ||
| Total votes | 303,334 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
District 4
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 County results Hoyle: 50–60% 60–70% Skarlatos: 50–60% 60-70% | |||||||||||||||||
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From 2012 to 2020, the 4th district included the southern Willamette Valley and the South Coast, including Eugene, Corvallis, and Roseburg. The district was kept largely the same despite redistricting, though it did gain parts of the central coast previously in the 5th district, making the district more Democratic leaning. The incumbent, Democrat Peter DeFazio, who was re-elected with 51.5% of the vote in 2020, [7] decided to retire, rather than seek a 19th consecutive term in Congress. [39]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Sami Al-Abdrabbuh, chair of the Corvallis School District Board [41] [42]
- Doyle Canning, environmental activist and candidate for this district in 2020 [43]
- Andrew Kalloch, Airbnb senior global policy advisor [44] [45]
- Steve Laible, author and publisher [9] [46]
- Jake Matthews, community organizer and author [9] [47] [48]
- John Selker, professor and scientist [9]
- G. Tommy Smith, personal banker [9] [46] [47] [49]
Withdrew
- Kevin Easton, political consultant and former executive director of Equity Foundation [50]
- Joshua Welch, teacher [9] [46]
Declined
- Melissa Cribbins, Coos County commissioner [44]
- Peter DeFazio, incumbent U.S. Representative [39]
- Julie Fahey, state representative from the 14th district ( running for re-election) [44]
- Sara Gelser Blouin, state senator from the 8th district ( running for re-election) [51] [44]
- James Manning Jr., state senator from the 7th district ( running for re-election) [52] [44]
- Dan Rayfield, Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives from the 16th district ( running for re-election) [44]
- Marty Wilde, state representative from the 11th district [52]
Endorsements
Doyle Canning
- State officials
- Bill Bradbury, former Oregon Secretary of State (1999–2009), former President of the Oregon State Senate (1993–1994), former member of the Oregon State Senate (1985–1995), former member of the Oregon House of Representatives (1981–1985) [53]
- Organizations
Val Hoyle
- Federal officials
- Peter DeFazio, U.S. Representative from OR-04 (1987–present) [55]
- Jeff Merkley, U.S. Senator from Oregon (2009–present) [56]
- Ron Wyden, U.S. Senator from Oregon (1996–present) [56]
- Organizations
- Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC [57]
- EMILY's List [58]
- Giffords [59]
- League of Conservation Voters Action Fund [60]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America [61]
- New Democrat Coalition Action Fund [62]
- Oregon Education Association PAC [18]
- Oregon Working Families Party [15]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund [63]
- Sierra Club [17]
- Newspapers
- Labor unions
- Service Employees International Union Oregon State Council [19]
Andrew Kalloch
- Organizations
John Selker
- Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Doyle Canning |
Val Hoyle |
Andrew Kalloch |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) [A] | March 17–18, 2022 | 634 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 8% | 24% | 4% | 10% | 54% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Val Hoyle | 56,153 | 64.0 | |
| Democratic | Doyle Canning | 14,245 | 16.2 | |
| Democratic | Sami Al-Abdrabbuh | 6,080 | 6.9 | |
| Democratic | John Selker | 4,738 | 5.4 | |
| Democratic | Andrew Kalloch | 4,322 | 4.9 | |
| Democratic | G. Tommy Smith | 1,278 | 1.5 | |
| Democratic | Jake Matthews | 607 | 0.7 | |
| Democratic | Steve Laible | 292 | 0.3 | |
| Total votes | 87,715 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Alek Skarlatos, former Oregon National Guard soldier and nominee for this district in 2020 [67] [68]
Withdrew
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Alek Skarlatos | 58,655 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 58,655 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Debate
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Pacific Green | Constitution | Democratic | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
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| Michael Beilstein | Jim Howard | Val Hoyle | Levi Leatherberry | Alek Skarlatos | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 6, 2022 | City Club of
Springfield City Club of Eugene |
YouTube | P | P | P | N | P | |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [21] | Lean D | August 5, 2022 |
| Inside Elections [22] | Tilt D | November 3, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] | Lean D | September 29, 2022 |
| Politico [24] | Lean D | October 3, 2022 |
| RCP [25] | Tossup | October 7, 2022 |
| Fox News [26] | Lean D | July 11, 2022 |
| DDHQ [27] | Tossup | October 16, 2022 |
| 538 [28] | Likely D | June 30, 2022 |
| The Economist [29] | Lean D | November 1, 2022 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Val Hoyle (D) |
Alex Skarlatos (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wick/RRH Elections (R) | October 23–26, 2022 | 529 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Moore Information Group (R) [B] | July 25–28, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 46% | 41% | 13% |
| RMG Research | June 4–6, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Val Hoyle [b] | 171,372 | 50.5 | |
| Republican | Alek Skarlatos | 146,055 | 43.1 | |
| Independent Party | Levi Leatherberry [c] | 9,052 | 2.7 | |
| Constitution | Jim Howard | 6,075 | 1.8 | |
| Pacific Green | Michael Beilstein [d] | 6,033 | 1.8 | |
| Write-in | 490 | 0.1 | ||
| Total votes | 339,077 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
District 5
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 County results Chavez-DeRemer: 60–70% McLeod-Skinner: 50–60% 70-80% >90% | |||||||||||||||||
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From 2012 to 2020, the 5th district straddled the central coast, and included Salem and the southern Portland suburbs. The new 5th district keeps the southern suburbs of Portland and reaches further into the city, but does not include any coastline, instead stretching southwards through the eastern parts of Marion and Linn counties to Bend.
The incumbent, Democrat Kurt Schrader, was re-elected with 51.9% of the vote in 2020. [7] He lost renomination to Jamie McLeod-Skinner. [71]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Jamie McLeod-Skinner, attorney, former Santa Clara, California city councillor, nominee for the 2nd district in 2018, and candidate for Oregon Secretary of State in 2020 [72] [73]
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Eliminated in primary
- Kurt Schrader, incumbent U.S. Representative [74]
Withdrew
- Mark Gamba, Mayor of Milwaukie (endorsed McLeod-Skinner) [72]
Endorsements
Kurt Schrader
- U.S. Presidents
- Organizations
- Democratic Majority for Israel [76]
- Humane Society of the United States Legislative Fund [12]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund [16]
- Pro-Israel America [77]
- Labor unions
- Newspapers
- The Oregonian [79] (primary only)
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Jamie McLeod-Skinner |
Kurt Schrader |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patinkin Research Strategies (D) [C] | January 31 – February 4, 2022 | 406 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 34% | 37% | 30% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jamie McLeod-Skinner | 47,148 | 54.9 | |
| Democratic | Kurt Schrader (incumbent) | 38,726 | 45.1 | |
| Total votes | 85,874 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Lori Chavez-DeRemer, former mayor of Happy Valley [80]
Eliminated in primary
- Jimmy Crumpacker, investor and candidate for Oregon's 2nd congressional district in 2020 [81]
- John Di Paola, orthopedic surgeon [82]
- Madison Oatman, building restoration technician [9] [81] [83]
- Laurel L. Roses, co-owner of a trucking company [9] [83]
Declined
- Knute Buehler, nominee for Governor of Oregon in 2018 [84]
- Shelly Boshart Davis, state representative from the 15th district ( running for re-election) [84]
- Christine Drazan, former Minority Leader of the Oregon House of Representatives from the 39th district [51] ( running for governor)
- Cheri Helt, former state representative from the 54th district (running for labor commissioner) [72] [e]
- Tim Knopp, Minority Leader of the Oregon State Senate from the 27th district [51]
- Tootie Smith, Clackamas County commissioner [51]
Endorsements
Jimmy Crumpacker
- Newspapers
- The Oregonian [79] (primary only)
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 30,438 | 42.8 | |
| Republican | Jimmy Crumpacker | 20,631 | 29.0 | |
| Republican | John Di Paola | 11,486 | 16.1 | |
| Republican | Laurel L. Roses | 6,321 | 8.9 | |
| Republican | Madison Oatman | 1,863 | 2.6 | |
| Republican | Write-in | 429 | 0.6 | |
| Total votes | 71,168 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [21] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2022 |
| Inside Elections [22] | Tilt R (flip) | November 3, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] | Lean R (flip) | October 26, 2022 |
| Politico [24] | Lean R (flip) | October 26, 2022 |
| RCP [25] | Lean R (flip) | October 30, 2022 |
| Fox News [26] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2022 |
| DDHQ [27] | Tossup | July 20, 2022 |
| 538 [28] | Tossup | November 8, 2022 |
| The Economist [29] | Tossup | November 1, 2022 |
Endorsements
Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D)
- State officials
- Kayse Jama, Oregon state senator from District 24 [72]
- Barbara Roberts, former governor of Oregon [87]
- Local officials
- Mark Gamba, Mayor of Milwaukie (2015–present) [72]
- Labor unions
- American Federation of Teachers Oregon [78]
- International Longshore and Warehouse Union [78]
- Oregon Education Association [87]
- Oregon Federation of Nurses and Health Professionals [78]
- Oregon Nurses Association [78]
- Service Employees International Union Oregon State Council [19]
- United Food and Commercial Workers Local 555 (UFCW 555) [88]
- Organizations
- Clackamas County Democratic Party [89]
- Democracy for America [90]
- Deschutes County Democratic Party [91]
- Emily's List [92]
- Human Rights Campaign PAC [93]
- Indivisible [94]
- League of Conservation Voters [95]
- LGBTQ Victory Fund [96]
- Linn County Democratic Party [97]
- Marion County Democratic Party [98]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America [61]
- Oregon Working Families Party [99]
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee [66]
- Progressive Democrats of America [37]
- Sierra Club [17]
- Sunrise Movement Eugene
- Sunrise Movement Portland
- Sunrise Movement Rural Oregon [100]
- Working Families Party [101]
- Newspapers
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R)
- Federal officials
- Elise Stefanik, U.S. Representative from New York's 21st congressional district [104]
- Organizations
- Elevate PAC [104]
- Maggie's List [105]
- Newspapers
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) |
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D) [D] | September 1–8, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 41% | 38% | 21% |
| Clout Research (R) [E] | August 15–18, 2022 | 410 (V) | ± 4.8% | 34% | 44% | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) [D] | June 1–2, 2022 | 572 (V) | ± 4.1% | 41% | 42% | 17% |
Hypothetical polling
- Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D) [D] | September 1–8, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 41% | 42% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) [D] | June 1–2, 2022 | 572 (V) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 178,813 | 50.9 | |||
| Democratic | Jamie McLeod-Skinner | 171,514 | 48.8 | |||
| Write-in | 906 | 0.3 | ||||
| Total votes | 351,233 | 100.0 | ||||
| Republican gain from Democratic | ||||||
District 6
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 County results Salinas: 50–60% 60–70% Erickson: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 6th district was created following the 2020 census. [2] It consists of Polk County and Yamhill County, in addition to portions of Marion County (including the state capital, Salem), Clackamas County, and Washington County.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Andrea Salinas, state representative from the 38th district [106]
Eliminated in primary
- Teresa Alonso Leon, state representative from the 22nd district [107]
- Ricky Barajas, perennial candidate [9]
- Carrick Flynn, former Oxford researcher on pandemic preparedness [108]
- Greg Goodwin [9]
- Kathleen Harder, chair of the Oregon Medical Board [50]
- Cody Reynolds, businessman and veteran [109]
- Loretta Smith, former Multnomah County commissioner [110]
- Matt West, engineer at Intel [106]
Withdrew
- Brian Hylland Jr. [111]
- Derry Jackson, former Portland Public Schools board member [106]
Declined
- Brian Clem, former state representative from the 21st district [51]
- Paul Evans, state representative from the 20th district and former mayor of Monmouth ( running for re-election) [51]
Endorsements
Teresa Alonso Leon
Andrea Salinas
- U.S. Senators
- Elizabeth Warren, United States Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present) [114]
- U.S. Governors
- Kate Brown, Governor of Oregon (2015–present) [115]
- U.S. House Representatives
- Pramila Jayapal, U.S. Representative from Washington's 7th congressional district (2017–present) [116]
- Organizations
- BOLD PAC [117]
- Giffords [118]
- League of Conservation Voters [119]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America [61]
- Oregon Working Families Party [15]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund [63]
- Sierra Club [17]
- Labor Unions
- Newspapers
- The Oregonian [120] (primary only)
- Willamette Week [103]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Teresa Alonso Leon |
Carrick Flynn |
Kathleen Harder |
Cody Reynolds |
Andrea Salinas |
Loretta Smith |
Matt West |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) [F] | May 2–3, 2022 | 591 (LV) | ± 4.0% | ≤9% | 14% | ≤9% | ≤9% | 18% | ≤9% | ≤9% | ≥23% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Andrea Salinas | 26,101 | 37.0 | |
| Democratic | Carrick Flynn | 13,052 | 18.5 | |
| Democratic | Cody Reynolds | 7,951 | 11.3 | |
| Democratic | Loretta Smith | 7,064 | 10.0 | |
| Democratic | Matt West | 5,658 | 8.0 | |
| Democratic | Kathleen Harder | 5,510 | 7.8 | |
| Democratic | Teresa Alonso Leon | 4,626 | 6.6 | |
| Democratic | Ricky Barajas | 292 | 0.4 | |
| Democratic | Greg Goodwin | 217 | 0.3 | |
| Total votes | 70,471 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mike Erickson, consultant and nominee for Oregon's 5th congressional district in 2006 and 2008 [121]
Eliminated in primary
- Jim Bunn, former U.S. Representative for Oregon's 5th congressional district [9] [122]
- Amy Ryan Courser, former Keizer city councilor and nominee for Oregon's 5th congressional district in 2020 [123]
- Ron Noble, state representative from the 24th district [106]
- Angela Plowhead, clinical psychologist [106]
- David Russ, Mayor of Dundee [124]
- Nate Sandvig, U.S. Military Academy graduate [50]
Declined
- Tootie Smith, Clackamas County commissioner [51]
Endorsements
Ron Noble
- Newspapers
- The Oregonian [120] (primary only)
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Erickson | 21,675 | 34.9 | |
| Republican | Ron Noble | 10,980 | 17.7 | |
| Republican | Amy Ryan Courser | 10,176 | 16.4 | |
| Republican | Angela Plowhead | 8,271 | 13.3 | |
| Republican | Jim Bunn | 6,340 | 10.2 | |
| Republican | David Russ | 2,398 | 3.9 | |
| Republican | Nate Sandvig | 2,222 | 3.6 | |
| Total votes | 62,062 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [21] | Tossup | October 11, 2022 |
| Inside Elections [22] | Tossup | October 21, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] | Lean D | September 29, 2022 |
| Politico [24] | Tossup | October 18, 2022 |
| RCP [25] | Tossup | October 16, 2022 |
| Fox News [26] | Tossup | October 18, 2022 |
| DDHQ [27] | Tossup | November 8, 2022 |
| 538 [28] | Lean D | November 4, 2022 |
| The Economist [29] | Lean D | October 4, 2022 |
Endorsements
Andrea Salinas (D)
- U.S. Senators
- Elizabeth Warren, United States Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present) [114]
- U.S. Governors
- Kate Brown, Governor of Oregon (2015–present) [115]
- U.S. House Representatives
- Pramila Jayapal, U.S. Representative from Washington's 7th congressional district (2017–present) [116]
- Organizations
- BOLD PAC [117]
- Giffords [118]
- League of Conservation Voters [119]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America [61]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund [63]
- Sierra Club [17]
- Labor Unions
- Newspapers
- The Oregonian [120] (primary only)
- Willamette Week [103]
Mike Erickson (R)
Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Andrea Salinas (D) |
Mike Erickson (R) |
Undecided [f] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | July 28 – October 5, 2022 | October 10, 2022 | 40.6% | 44.3% | 15.1% | Erickson +3.7 |
- Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on
Phabricator and on
MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Andrea Salinas (D) |
Mike Erickson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO (D) [G] | October 3–5, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 44% | 2% [g] | 9% |
| Cygnal (R) [H] | September 29–30, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 39% | 44% | – | 17% |
| Clout Research (R) [E] | August 14–19, 2022 | 409 (V) | ± 4.4% | 34% | 43% | – | 23% |
| GBAO (D) [G] | August 10–14, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| Cygnal (R) [I] | July 26–28, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 40% | 47% | – | 13% |
| RMG Research | June 4–9, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
Hypothetical polling
- Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D) [J] | October 19, 2022 | – | – | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| GBAO (D) [G] | October 3–5, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Andrea Salinas | 147,156 | 50.0 | ||
| Republican | Mike Erickson | 139,946 | 47.5 | ||
| Constitution | Larry McFarland | 6,762 | 2.3 | ||
| Write-in | 513 | 0.2 | |||
| Total votes | 294,377 | 100.0 | |||
| Democratic win (new seat) | |||||
Notes
- ^
a
b
c
d
e
f
g
h Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ co-nominated by Working Families Party of Oregon
- ^ co-nominated by Libertarian Party of Oregon
- ^ co-nominated by Oregon Progressive Party
- ^ Presumably; currently running for Oregon Bureau of Labor and Industries. [85] [86]
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ McFarland with 2%
- Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by Climate Hawks Vote, which supports Canning
- ^ Poll sponsored jointly by the National Republican Congressional Committee and Skarlatos's campaign committee
- ^ Poll sponsored by McLeod-Skinner's campaign
- ^ a b c d This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports McLeod-Skinner
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by the National Republican Congressional Committee
- ^ Poll sponsored by Salinas's campaign
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Salinas campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by Erickson's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored jointly by the National Republican Congressional Committee and Erickson's campaign committee
- ^ This poll was sponsored by the House Majority PAC
References
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External links
- Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates
- Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates
- Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates
- Official campaign websites for 4th district candidates
- Official campaign websites for 5th district candidates
- Official campaign websites for 6th district candidates