U.S. House election in Alaska
2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska's at-large district
Maximum round results by borough/census area Peltola: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%Palin: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
The November 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect a member of the
United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska.
Democratic incumbent
Mary Peltola won reelection to a full term in office, defeating
Republicans
Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III and
Libertarian Chris Bye in the runoff count.
[1]
This was the second race in Alaska held under the
2020 Measure 2 election procedure, after year's
special election .
[2] All candidates ran in a
nonpartisan blanket top-four primary with each voter
casting a single vote .
Mary Peltola ,
Sarah Palin , Nick Begich III, and Chris Bye
[note 1] advanced to the runoff.
[3]
[4]
Under the rules of
instant-runoff , Bye and Begich were eliminated in the first and second rounds, after they received the fewest votes; Palin received support from 66.8% of Begich's voters after he was eliminated. However, this was not enough to defeat Peltola, who went on to win with 55% of the vote.
[5]
Peltola's final-round vote share of 55% was the best performance for a statewide Democratic candidate in Alaska since the
1974 Senate race and the best performance for any statewide candidate in the state since the
2012 House race . Peltola was one of only five House Democrats in the
2022 midterm elections who won a district that
Donald Trump carried in the
2020 presidential election ;
[a] she outran
Joe Biden 's vote share by more than 20%, the highest overperformance of any House Democrat in the midterms.
Although Peltola's more-convincing margin of victory suggests that the
pathological behavior of the
special election was not repeated, election scientists noted that the early elimination of Begich and the opaque ballot-counting process created some uncertainty about the
majority choice candidate , who may have been Begich, Peltola, or neither.
[6]
[7]
Primary election
Democratic Party
Advanced to general
Withdrew
Declined
Republican Party
Advanced to general
Withdrew after advancing to general
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
Declined
Libertarian Party
Advanced to general
Eliminated in primary
Alaskan Independence Party
Declined
American Independent Party
Eliminated in primary
Robert Ornelas, pastor and perennial candidate
[8]
Independents
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
Declined
Results
General election
Predictions
Debates and forums
As of September 2022, there had been one debate featuring the general election candidates.
A little over an hour before election results came in for the final round of the
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election , a debate was held for candidates of this house seat. All four candidates were included in the debate.
2022 Alaska U.S. Representative debates
No.
Date
Host
Moderator
Link
Participants
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn
Nick Begich III
Chris Bye
Sarah Palin
Mary Peltola
1
August 31, 2022
Alaska Oil and Gas Association
Dave Karp
YouTube
P
P
P
P
2
October 4, 2022
Kodiak Chamber of Commerce/
KMXT (FM)
Dan Rohr
[1]
P
P
P
P
3
October 10, 2022
Anchorage Chamber of Commerce
Julie Hasquet
YouTube
P
P
A
P
4
October 21, 2022
Alaska Federation of Natives
P
P
P
P
5
October 26, 2022
Alaska Public Media/Alaska's News Source
Lori Townsend, Mike Ross
YouTube
P
P
P
P
Endorsements
Nick Begich III (R)
State legislators
Ben Carpenter ,
state representative from the 29th district (2019–present)
[43]
John Coghill , former Majority Leader of the
Alaska Senate (2013–2016) from District B (2009–2021) and former Majority Leader of the
Alaska House of Representatives (2003–2006) from the 11th district (1999–2009)
[22]
Mike Cronk ,
state representative from the 6th district (2021–present)
[43]
Lynn Gattis , former
state representative from the 9th district (2013–2017)
[43]
Roger Holland ,
state senator from District N (2021–present)
[43]
Shelley Hughes , Majority Leader of the
Alaska Senate (2021–present) from District F (2017–present), and former
state representative from the 11th district (2012–2017)
[43]
Kevin J. McCabe ,
state representative from the 8th district (2021–present)
[43]
Ken McCarty ,
state representative from the 13th district (2021–present)
[43]
Thomas McKay ,
state representative from the 24th district (2021–present)
[43]
Charisse Millett , former Minority Leader of the
Alaska House of Representatives (2017–2019) from the 30th district (2009–2019)
[43]
Mike Shower ,
state senator from District E (2018–present)
[43]
Sarah Vance ,
state representative from the 31st district (2019–present)
[43]
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Sarah Palin (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. representatives
Organizations
Al Gross (I) (withdrawn)
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
Mary Peltola (D)
U.S. senators
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Josh Revak (R) (withdrawn)
Individuals
Anne Garland Young, widow of former U.S. Representative
Don Young
[65]
Tara Sweeney (R) (withdrawn)
Executive branch officials
State officials
Individuals
Organizations
ANCSA Regional Association
[68]
Polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
[c]
Margin of error
RCV count
Mary Peltola (D)
Sarah Palin (R)
Nick Begich (R)
Chris Bye (L)
Undecided / Not Ranked / Other
Dittman Research
November 2–3, 2022
400 (LV)
± 4.9%
1
48%
25%
23%
3%
1% U 1% O
2
49%
26%
25%
Elim
—
3
56%
44%
Elim
Elim
—
Alaska Survey Research
October 19–22, 2022
1,276 (LV)
± 3.0%
1
49%
26%
21%
5%
—
2
51%
27%
22%
Elim
—
3
57%
43%
Elim
Elim
—
3*
[d]
56%
Elim
44%
Elim
—
Dittman Research
October 4–8, 2022
411 (LV)
± 4.8%
1
45%
23%
28%
3%
—
2
46%
24%
30%
Elim
—
3
52%
Elim
48%
Elim
—
Alaska Survey Research
September 25–27, 2022
1,282 (LV)
± 3.0%
1
49%
23%
26%
2%
—
2
50%
24%
26%
Elim
—
3
54%
Elim
46%
Elim
—
3*
[e]
56%
44%
Elim
Elim
—
Dittman Research
September 6–14, 2022
394 (LV)
± 4.9%
1
50%
27%
20%
3%
1% U 1% O
2
51%
28%
21%
Elim
—
3
58%
42%
Elim
Elim
—
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
[A]
September 6–11, 2022
1,050 (LV)
[f]
N/A
[g]
45%
30%
20%
2%
3% U
1
46%
31%
20%
2%
3% NR
2
47%
32%
21%
Elim
[h]
4% NR
3
53%
47%
Elim
[i]
Elim
10% NR
Hypothetical polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
[c]
Margin of error
RCV count
Nick Begich (R)
Sarah Palin (R)
Mary Peltola (D)
Tara Sweeney (R)
Undecided
Alaska Survey Research
July 20–25, 2022
1,253 (LV)
± 3.0%
1
26%
27%
39%
8%
–
2
29%
29%
42%
Elim
–
3
54%
Elim
46%
Elim
–
3*
[j]
Elim
48%
53%
Elim
–
Alaska Survey Research
July 2–5, 2022
1,201 (LV)
± 2.9%
1
27%
27%
38%
8%
–
2
31%
29%
41%
Elim
–
3
56%
Elim
44%
Elim
–
Results
Preference flow
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district election
[69]
[70]
Party
Candidate
First choice
Round 1
Round 2
Round 3
Votes
%
Transfer
Votes
%
Transfer
Votes
%
Transfer
Votes
%
Democratic
Mary Peltola (incumbent)
128,553
48.77%
+202
128,755
48.66%
+1,031
129,786
49.22%
+7,477
137,263
54.96%
Republican
Sarah Palin
67,866
25.74%
+464
68,330
25.82%
+1,069
69,399
26.32%
+43,072
112,471
45.04%
Republican
Nick Begich III
61,513
23.33%
+992
62,505
23.62%
+1,994
64,499
24.46%
-64,499
Eliminated
Libertarian
Chris Bye
4,570
1.73%
+429
4,999
1.89%
-4,999
Eliminated
Write-in
1,108
0.42%
-1,108
Eliminated
Total votes
263,610
264,589
263,684
249,734
Blank or inactive ballots
2,208
+905
3,113
+13,950
17,063
Democratic hold
See also
Notes
^ The others being
Marcy Kaptur ,
Jared Golden ,
Matt Cartwright , and
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez .
^ Chris Bye placed fifth in the nonpartisan primary. However, the fourth-place finisher — Tara Sweeney — withdrew, placing Bye in the general election.
^
a
b Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
^ Hypothetical scenario with Begich and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
^ Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
^ The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4.4%; for the 840 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.3%.
^ Standard polling question.
^ Bye eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 33% to Begich, 25% to Palin, 17% to Peltola, and 25% not ranked further.
^ Begich eliminated. Vote transfer break own: 56% to Palin, 14% to Peltola, 30% not ranked further.
^ Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
Partisan clients
References
^ Bye replaced fourth-place finisher
Tara Sweeney after she dropped out of the race.
^ Bradner, Eric (November 23, 2022).
"CNN projects Rep. Mary Peltola will win race for Alaska House seat, thwarting Sarah Palin's political comeback again | CNN Politics" . CNN . Retrieved November 24, 2022 .
^ Ruskin, Liz (March 18, 2022).
"Alaska Congressman Don Young has died" .
Alaska Public Media . Retrieved March 18, 2022 .
^ Ruskin, Liz (August 23, 2022).
"Tara Sweeney ends campaign for U.S. House, opening spot for Libertarian on November ballot" . Alaska Public Media . Retrieved September 6, 2022 . 'If a candidate who advances out of the primary withdraws 64 or more days before the general election, the fifth place candidate will advance instead,' a Division of Elections spokeswoman said by email.
^ Media, Andrew Kitchenman, KTOO and Alaska Public (November 18, 2020).
"Alaska will have a new election system: Voters pass Ballot Measure 2" . KTOO . Retrieved November 18, 2020 . {{
cite web }}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (
link )
^ Cochrane, Emily (November 24, 2022).
"Mary Peltola Wins Bid to Serve Full Term in the House for Alaska" . The New York Times .
ISSN
0362-4331 . Retrieved November 25, 2022 .
^ Graham-Squire, Adam; McCune, David (September 10, 2022). "A Mathematical Analysis of the 2022 Alaska Special Election for US House".
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econ.GN ].
^ Graham-Squire, Adam; McCune, David (January 2, 2024).
"Ranked Choice Wackiness in Alaska" . Math Horizons . 31 (1): 24–27.
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^
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^
a
b
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d
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^
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b
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a
b
c
d Herz, Nathaniel (March 26, 2022).
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^
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^
a
b
c Rosen, Yereth (June 7, 2022).
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^
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^
a
b Ulloa, Jazmine; Peters, Jeremy W. (April 2, 2022).
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^
a
b Samuels, Iris (August 23, 2022).
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Anchorage Daily News . Archived from
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^
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San Francisco Chronicle .
Associated Press .
Archived from the original on March 29, 2022. Retrieved March 29, 2022 .
^
a
b
"John Coghill pulls out of Congressional race, makes endorsement" .
KINY .
Fairbanks, Alaska . June 20, 2022. Retrieved June 24, 2022 .
^ Downing, Suzanne (March 23, 2022).
"Revak to file for Congress to replace Don Young" . Retrieved March 24, 2022 .
^ Bohrer, Becky (June 22, 2022).
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Associated Press . Retrieved June 24, 2022 .
^ Samuels, Iris; Herz, Nathaniel; Brooks, James (April 2, 2022).
"51 candidates: A wild U.S. House race takes shape in Alaska" .
Anchorage Daily News . Retrieved April 2, 2022 .
^
"Alaska's U.S. House candidate field expands as Friday deadline nears" . Anchorage Daily News .
^ Herz, Nathaniel; Brooks, James (March 22, 2022).
"After Young's death, Alaska's political world braces for a sea change and an elections marathon" .
Anchorage Daily News .
Archived from the original on March 22, 2022. Retrieved March 22, 2022 .
^ Pellegrini, Silvio (April 6, 2022).
"LinkedIn Profile" . LinkedIn .
^ Matt Hickman (March 19, 2022).
"Source: Gross running for Congressional seat vacated by Young's passing" .
Anchorage Press . Retrieved March 21, 2022 .
^ Maguire, Sean [@SeanBMaguire] (June 21, 2022).
"Al Gross is withdrawing from the U.S. House race, according to a press release from his campaign. Zero explanation why and he's not answering his cellphone. Endorses Mary Peltola and Tara Sweeney. Ping @alaskalandmine that broke the story" (
Tweet ). Retrieved June 20, 2022 – via
Twitter .
^
a
b
c Ruskin, Liz (June 21, 2022).
"Al Gross, a top four candidate for US House, calls it quits" . Retrieved June 27, 2022 .
^
a
b
"OUR campaign gives voters hope for a better future for all Alaskans, especially our children. Thank you so much for your unwavering support, kind words, and love (the greatest gift), and the powerful statement you have made with your vote. My 2-min video" .
^
"August 16, 2022 Primary Election Summary Report - OFFICIAL RESULTS" (PDF) . Alaska Division of Elections. September 2, 2022. Retrieved September 2, 2022 .
^
"2022 House Race Ratings" . The Cook Political Report . Retrieved November 3, 2022 .
^
"House Ratings" . The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2022 .
^
"2022 House Ratings" . Sabato's Crystal Ball . October 5, 2021. Retrieved November 3, 2022 .
^
"2022 Election Forecast" .
Politico . April 5, 2022.
^
"Battle for the House 2022" .
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^
"2022 Election Forecast" . Fox News . September 20, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2022 .
^
"2022 Election Forecast" . DDHQ . July 20, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2022 .
^
"2022 Election Forecast" . FiveThirtyEight . June 30, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2022 .
^
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^
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^
"Mayor Bronson endorses Nick Begich for Congress" . October 11, 2022.
^ Downing, Suzanne (November 4, 2022).
"Mayor Dan Sullivan endorses Nick Begich for Congress" .
^
"Surprise endorsement for Nick Begich for Congress comes from the heart of Palin World" . April 20, 2022.
^
"Nick Begich III speaks to News of the North" .
KINY . April 15, 2022. Retrieved May 8, 2022 .
^ Downing, Suzanne (April 21, 2022).
"Nick Begich for Congress receives endorsement of Alaska Republican Party" . Must Read Alaska . Retrieved May 8, 2022 .
^
a
b Downing, Suzanne (May 12, 2022).
"FreedomWorks endorses Nick Begich for Congress" .
^
"Chris Bye is the endorsed Libertarian candidate for U.S. House, began his campaign in 2021" . Alaska Libertarian Party . April 2, 2022. Retrieved October 25, 2022 .
^
"Nikki Haley returns the favor: endorses Sarah Palin for Congress" .
The Post and Courier . Retrieved April 3, 2022 .
^
"Trump endorses Palin in Alaska House special election" .
Politico . April 3, 2022. Retrieved April 3, 2022 .
^ Aabram, Virginia (May 9, 2022).
"Elise Stefanik endorses Sarah Palin for Alaska House seat" .
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^
"Endorsed Candidates" . Campaign for Working Families . Retrieved August 3, 2022 .
^
"Log Cabin Republicans Announces Second Round of 2022 Endorsements" . Log Cabin Republicans . Retrieved September 29, 2022 .
^
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The Forward . Retrieved April 12, 2022 .
^ Hughes, Zachariah (October 22, 2022).
"At AFN, Murkowski says she'll vote for longtime friend and Democrat Mary Peltola for U.S. House" .
Anchorage Daily News .
Archived from the original on October 23, 2022. Retrieved October 23, 2022 .
^
"NEW TV AD: In Home Stretch, Former AK Senate President Halford Endorses Peltola To Continue Don Young's Legacy In Congress" (PDF) .
^
"Democrats drop from U.S. House race, most backing Peltola" . June 17, 2022.
Archived from the original on June 21, 2022. Retrieved June 18, 2022 .
^ Brooks, James (June 23, 2022).
"Alaska AFL-CIO endorses Walker, Murkowski, Peltola" . Retrieved June 27, 2022 .
^
"OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES" . Retrieved October 29, 2022 .
^ Beacon, Alaska (October 24, 2022).
"Alaska Federation of Natives make key election endorsements" . ICT .
^
"Human Rights Campaign Endorses 22 Additional Pro-Equality Champions for U.S. House of Representatives" . Human Rights Campaign . September 30, 2022. Retrieved November 29, 2022 .
^
"Sealaska Encourages Support for Mary Peltola for Congress – Sealaska" .
^
"Don Young's wife endorses Revak in Alaska House race" .
The Hill . Retrieved April 14, 2022 .
^
"Tara Sweeney kicks off campaign for Congress, names campaign manager Karina Waller, others in key positions" . Must Read Alaska . Retrieved April 14, 2022 .
^
"With 64 days to special primary to replace Don Young, congressional candidates are on the move around Alaska" . Must Read Alaska . Retrieved April 14, 2022 .
^
"Revak, Sweeney get endorsements in bid for Alaska House seat" .
The Seattle Times .
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^
"RCV Detailed Report | General Election | State of Alaska" (PDF) . Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2022. Retrieved December 29, 2022 .
^
"State of Alaska 2022 GENERAL ELECTION Election Summary Report" (PDF) . Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2022. Retrieved January 16, 2023 .
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