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2022 Oklahoma gubernatorial election

←  2018 November 8, 2022 2026 →
Turnout50.2% Decrease
 
Nominee Kevin Stitt Joy Hofmeister
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 639,484 481,904
Percentage 55.4% 41.8%

Stitt:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      ≥90%
Hofmeister:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      ≥90%

Governor before election

Kevin Stitt
Republican

Elected Governor

Kevin Stitt
Republican

The 2022 Oklahoma gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Oklahoma. Incumbent governor Kevin Stitt was re-elected to a second term, defeating Joy Hofmeister. [1]

Although Stitt won by a comfortable margin, and even expanded his margin from 2018, his performance was the worst of any 2022 Republican candidate for statewide office in Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Hofmeister's performance was the second best of any 2022 Democratic statewide candidate in Oklahoma, only behind State Superintendent of Public Instruction nominee Jena Nelson.

The primary elections for the Republican and Democratic parties' nominations took place on June 28, 2022. [2] The deadline for candidates to file was April 15, 2022. [2]

Republican primary

Candidates

Ervin Yen, former state senator from the 40th District, was the first to declare their campaign for the Republican Party of Oklahoma's nomination on November 8, 2020. [3] Yen later publicly announced on October 19, 2021, that he was leaving the Republican Party of Oklahoma. He criticized the party's opposition to mask and vaccine mandates for COVID-19, saying "The Oklahoma GOP has left me." [4]

Incumbent Kevin Stitt was reported as joining the race in January 2021 after officially filing for re-election. [5]

Mark Sherwood, a naturopath, was reported as joining the race in September 2021. His platform includes a "zero tolerance policy" for vaccine and mask mandates, stating "I believe the concept of vaccine and mask mandates needs to end." [6]

Joel Kintsel announced his candidacy on April 7. Moira McCabe was reported to have launched their campaign around the same time. [7]

In early June, Stitt's campaign pulled one of its commercials after Oklahoma County District Attorney, David Prater announced an investigation into whether it violated state law for featuring Oklahoma Attorney General John O'Connor. While pulling the ad, the campaign maintained they "are confident that it is an acceptable campaign ad focused on the Governor's accomplishments and fulfilled campaign promises." [8]

Incumbent Kevin Stitt won the June 28 Republican primary.

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew before filing

Declined

Endorsements

Mark Sherwood
State senators
State representative
Individual
Kevin Stitt
U.S. Executive Branch official
State senators
State representatives
Newspaper
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Joel
Kintsel
Moira
McCabe
Mark
Sherwood
Kevin
Stitt
Undecided
Amber Integrated (R) June 6–9, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 4% 3% 8% 61% 23%
SoonerPoll April 25 – May 11, 2022 306 (LV) ± 5.6% 4% 1% 5% 67% 24%
Amber Integrated (R) March 24–27, 2022 455 (LV) ± 4.6% 15% 59% 26%

Results

Results by county:
  Stitt
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results [24]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kevin Stitt (incumbent) 248,525 69.06%
Republican Joel Kintsel 51,587 14.33%
Republican Mark Sherwood 47,713 13.26%
Republican Moira McCabe 12,046 3.35%
Total votes 359,871 100.0%

Democratic primary

Former state senator Connie Johnson was the first Democrat to enter the race.

Former state senator Connie Johnson was the first Democrat to enter the race, officially declaring her candidacy on July 6, 2021. Her platform includes expanding access to healthcare, revitalizing Oklahoma's infrastructure, pursuing criminal justice reforms like banning the death penalty, support for reproductive rights, and legalizing marijuana (marijuana is currently legal in Oklahoma for medicinal purposes, but is illegal for recreational use). A political progressive, Johnson was the only Oklahoma superdelegate who supported Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in the 2016 presidential primary. [25] [26]

On October 7, 2021, Oklahoma State Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister announced her plans to switch from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party and run for governor. Hofmeister had first been elected as a Republican in 2014 and 2018. This marked the first time that a Democrat held a statewide elected position in Oklahoma since Republicans swept every statewide office in 2010. Hofmeister had frequently clashed with Republican governor Kevin Stitt during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, she opposed the decision by the Oklahoma State Department of Education, whose members were appointed by Stitt, to forego imposing a mask mandate on schools. [27] Her platform includes increasing education funding, investing in infrastructure, expanding mental health services, sentencing reform, and support for abortion rights. [28]

Johnson was openly skeptical of Hofmeister's decision to change parties, calling it a "big hoax." She pointed out that Hofmeister could still switch back to the Republican Party after being elected. [28] However, other Democrats in the state were more receptive, with the Oklahoma Democratic Party issuing a statement welcoming Hofmeister to the party. [29] Oklahoma Democratic Party chair Alicia Andrews admitted she was suspicious at first, but after talking with Hofmeister she became convinced that Hofmeister's intentions were good. Hofmeister emphasized that she was not changing her political beliefs, just her party, and is considerably more moderate in comparison to Johnson. [30] Andrews commented that they are "two very different candidates," and they give Democratic voters "a real choice. If you don’t have a super progressive bent and maybe Connie scares you because she is so progressive, you have Joy. If Joy is too moderate, you have Connie." [26]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Joy
Hofmeister
Connie
Johnson
Undecided
Amber Integrated (R) October 12–14, 2021 243 (RV) ± 6.3% 33% 13% 55%

Results

Results by county:
  Hofmeister
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Johnson
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
Democratic primary results [24]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joy Hofmeister 101,913 60.73%
Democratic Connie Johnson 65,894 39.27%
Total votes 167,807 100.0%

General election

Ervin Yen, who served in the Oklahoma Senate as a Republican, ran as an Independent candidate.

Candidates

Declared but failed to file

Debates

2022 Oklahoma gubernatorial debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Joy
Hofmeister
Kevin
Stitt
Natalie
Bruno
Ervin
Yen
1 October 19, 2022 C-SPAN Tres Savage and Storme Jones [1] P P N N

Endorsements

Kevin Stitt (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
Statewide officials
State senators
State representatives
Newspapers
Labor unions
Organizations
Joy Hofmeister (D)
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State senators
State representatives
Tribal Nations
Tribal officials
Individuals
Newspapers
Labor unions
Local officials
Organizations

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report [68] Likely R September 29, 2022
Inside Elections [69] Likely R October 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [70] Likely R October 12, 2022
Politico [71] Likely R October 3, 2022
RCP [72] Tossup October 17, 2022
Fox News [73] Lean R November 1, 2022
538 [74] Likely R October 17, 2022
Elections Daily [75] Safe R November 7, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Kevin
Stitt (R)
Joy
Hofmeister (D)
Other
[c]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight March 27 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 48.2% 43.4% 8.4% Stitt +4.8
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Kevin
Stitt (R)
Joy
Hofmeister (D)
Natalie
Bruno (L)
Ervin
Yen (I)
Undecided
Ascend Action (R) November 5–6, 2022 682 (LV) ± 3.8% 49% 46% 1% 1% 4%
Tomahawk Strategies (R) November 1–3, 2022 729 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 45%
Blueprint Polling October 26 – November 1, 2022 557 (LV) ± 4.2% 48% 40% 2% 4% 6%
WPA Intelligence (R) [A] October 28–31, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 39% 4%
Amber Integrated (R) October 26–28, 2022 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 44% 2% 4% 4%
Emerson College October 25–28, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 40% 1% 2% 8%
52% 43% 2% 4%
Ascend Action (R) October 24–28, 2022 749 (LV) ± 3.6% 45% 48% 1% 1% 6%
SoonerPoll October 24–28, 2022 324 (LV) ± 5.0% 45% 48% 2% 3% 2%
Amber Integrated (R) October 13–15, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 46% 1% 3% 5%
Ascend Action (R) October 10–12, 2022 638 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 49% 0% 0% 8%
SoonerPoll October 3–6, 2022 301 (LV) ± 5.7% 43% 47% 2% 1% 7%
American Viewpoint (R) [A] September 26–28, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 33% 9% [d] 8%
Amber Integrated (R) September 19–21, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 44% 2% 1% 6%
–(L) [B] September 15–18, 2022 2,989 (LV) ± 3.2% 39% 40% 9% 5% 7%
SoonerPoll September 2–7, 2022 402 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 43% 3% 4% 7%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 522 (RV) ± 6.3% 55% 36% 10%
Change Research (D) [C] July 22–26, 2022 2,079 (LV) ± 3.1% 42% 34% 6% 4% 14%
Amber Integrated (R) June 6–9, 2022 795 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 29% 2% 5% 18%
Amber Integrated (R) March 24–27, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 30% 3% 4% 18%
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (R) [D] January 10–21, 2022 500 (RV) ± 4.3% 49% 27% 3% 5% 15%
Change Research (D) [C] January 6–10, 2022 881 (LV) ± 4.8% 58% 32% 10%
Amber Integrated (R) December 15–19, 2021 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 47% 32% 21%
Amber Integrated (R) October 12–14, 2021 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 49% 33% 18%
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (R) [D] October 2021 500 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 31% 6% 17%

Results

2022 Oklahoma gubernatorial election [76] [77]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Kevin Stitt (incumbent) 639,484 55.45% +1.12%
Democratic Joy Hofmeister 481,904 41.79% -0.44%
Libertarian Natalie Bruno 16,243 1.41% -2.03%
Independent Ervin Yen 15,653 1.36% N/A
Total votes 1,153,284 100.0%
Turnout 1,153,284 52.23%
Registered electors 2,295,906
Republican hold

By county

By county
County Kevin Stitt
Republican
Joy Hofmeister
Democratic
Natalie Bruno
Libertarian
Ervin Yen
Independent
Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # % # %
Adair 3,135 60.03 1,896 36.31 80 1.53 111 2.13 1,239 23.72 5,222
Alfalfa 1,287 74.18 385 22.19 33 1.90 30 1.73 902 51.99 1,735
Atoka 2,790 71.16 1,011 25.78 57 1.45 63 1.61 1,779 45.38 3,921
Beaver 1,382 81.39 249 14.66 29 1.71 38 2.24 1,133 66.73 1,698
Beckham 4,115 75.09 1,240 22.63 60 1.09 65 1.19 2,875 52.46 5,480
Blaine 1,985 66.61 886 29.73 48 1.61 61 2.05 1,099 36.88 2,980
Bryan 7,144 62.30 3,941 34.37 193 1.68 189 1.65 3,203 27.93 11,467
Caddo 4,166 58.99 2,668 37.78 113 1.60 115 1.63 1,498 21.21 7,062
Canadian 29,474 58.70 19,306 38.45 757 1.51 677 1.35 10,168 20.25 50,214
Carter 8,621 64.30 4,332 32.31 229 1.71 226 1.69 4,289 31.99 13,408
Cherokee 6,660 49.17 6,481 47.85 197 1.45 207 1.53 179 1.32 13,545
Choctaw 2,798 69.09 1,084 26.77 81 2.00 87 2.15 1,714 42.32 4,050
Cimarron 640 87.31 62 8.46 12 1.64 19 2.59 578 78.85 733
Cleveland 41,379 45.33 47,356 51.88 1,335 1.46 1,209 1.32 -5,977 -6.55 91,279
Coal 1,288 67.51 549 28.77 30 1.57 41 2.15 739 38.74 1,908
Comanche 12,219 51.82 10,293 43.65 537 2.28 531 2.25 1,926 8.17 23,580
Cotton 1,187 64.61 545 29.57 60 3.26 51 2.77 642 34.84 1,843
Craig 2,880 64.21 1,492 33.27 57 1.27 56 1.25 1,388 30.94 4,485
Creek 15,015 67.18 6,816 30.50 268 1.20 251 1.12 8,199 36.68 22,350
Custer 4,853 64.78 2,461 32.85 99 1.32 79 1.05 2,392 31.93 7,492
Delaware 8,858 67.01 3,497 29.86 178 1.35 235 1.78 4,911 37.15 13,218
Dewey 1,400 79.23 321 18.17 19 1.08 27 1.53 1,079 61.06 1,767
Ellis 1,167 78.53 281 18.91 25 1.68 13 0.87 886 59.62 1,486
Garfield 10,800 66.61 4,960 30.59 222 1.37 232 1.43 5,840 36.02 16,214
Garvin 5,589 68.81 2,296 28.27 132 1.63 105 1.29 3,293 40.54 8,122
Grady 12,165 68.25 5,163 28.96 247 1.39 250 1.40 7,002 39.29 17,825
Grant 1,181 73.86 375 23.45 24 1.50 19 1.19 806 50.41 1,599
Greer 902 67.21 394 29.36 23 1.71 23 1.71 508 37.85 1,342
Harmon 458 70.46 179 27.54 9 1.38 4 0.62 279 42.92 650
Harper 809 69.26 317 27.14 25 2.14 17 1.46 492 42.12 1,168
Haskell 2,337 68.90 985 29.04 32 0.94 38 1.12 1,352 39.86 3,392
Hughes 2,352 66.35 1,093 30.83 48 1.35 52 1.47 1,259 35.52 3,545
Jackson 3,857 70.10 1.450 26.35 105 1.91 90 1.64 2,407 43.75 5,502
Jefferson 1,098 68.07 444 27.53 40 2.48 31 1.92 654 40.54 1,613
Johnston 1,986 67.03 867 29.26 55 1.86 55 1.86 1,119 37.77 2,963
Kay 7,927 63.25 4,204 33.55 191 1.52 210 1.68 3,723 29.70 12,532
Kingfisher 3.647 74.69 1,121 22.96 55 1.13 60 1.23 2,526 51.73 4,883
Kiowa 1,648 66.96 764 31.04 28 1.14 21 0.85 884 35.92 2,461
Latimer 1,985 64.78 960 31.33 42 1.37 77 2.51 1,025 33.45 3,064
Le Flore 8,266 68.08 3,377 27.81 263 2.17 235 1.94 4,889 40.27 12,141
Lincoln 7,587 68.36 3,131 28.21 172 1.55 208 1.87 4,456 40.15 11,098
Logan 11,086 65.14 5,517 32.42 222 1.30 194 1.14 5,569 32.72 17,019
Love 1.951 71.15 703 25.64 33 1.20 55 2.01 1,248 45.51 2,742
McClain 10,160 67.53 4,458 29.63 225 1.50 203 1.35 5,702 37.90 15,046
McCurtain 5,566 67.48 2,311 28.02 160 1.94 211 2.56 3,255 39.46 8,248
McIntosh 4,028 62.20 2,300 35.52 70 1.08 78 1.20 1,728 26.68 6,476
Major 2,151 79.93 470 17.47 31 1.15 39 1.45 1,681 62.46 2,691
Marshall 2,958 67.37 1,312 29.88 49 1.12 72 1.64 1,646 37.49 4,391
Mayes 8,031 63.49 4,205 33.24 191 1.51 223 1.76 3,826 30.25 12,650
Murray 2,718 63.94 1,398 32.89 93 2.19 42 0.99 1,320 31.05 4,251
Muskogee 9,835 55.27 7,517 42.24 230 1.29 214 1.20 2,318 13.01 17,796
Noble 2,461 64.53 1,240 32.51 61 1.60 52 1.36 1,221 32.02 3,814
Nowata 2,302 69.27 916 27.57 62 1.87 43 1.29 1,386 41.70 3,323
Okfuskee 1,785 60.61 1,067 36.23 41 1.39 52 1.77 718 24.38 2,945
Oklahoma 93,466 42.00 122,996 55.27 2,868 1.29 3,224 1.45 -29,530 -13.27 222,554
Okmulgee 6,187 58.18 4,186 39.36 143 1.34 119 1.12 2,001 18.82 10,635
Osage 9,053 59.93 5,656 37.44 226 1.50 170 1.13 3,397 22.49 15,105
Ottawa 4,718 61.37 2,649 34.46 160 2.08 161 2.09 2,069 26.91 7,688
Pawnee 3,354 66.46 1,554 30.79 77 1.53 63 1.23 1,800 35.67 5,047
Payne 11,029 49.82 10,561 47.71 294 1.33 254 1.15 468 2.11 22,138
Pittsburg 8,322 65.57 3,973 31.31 164 1.29 232 1.83 4,349 34.26 12,691
Pontotoc 5,748 51.30 5,068 45.23 192 1.71 197 1.76 680 6.07 11,205
Pottawatomie 12,415 59.94 7,651 36.94 339 1.64 308 1.49 4,764 23.00 20,713
Pushmataha 2,309 70.03 870 26.39 66 2.00 52 1.58 1,439 43.64 3,297
Roger Mills 1,092 82.73 191 14.47 23 1.74 14 1.06 901 68.26 1,320
Rogers 22,581 66.55 10,527 31.02 440 1.30 385 1.13 12,054 35.53 33,933
Seminole 3,642 62.14 2,050 34.98 84 1.43 85 1.45 1,592 27.16 5,861
Sequoyah 6,516 63.42 3,329 32.40 198 1.93 231 2.25 3,187 31.02 10,274
Stephens 8,957 69.29 3,580 27.29 282 2.15 297 2.26 5,377 41.00 13,116
Texas 2,806 76.71 712 19.46 51 1.46 89 2.43 2,094 57.25 3,658
Tillman 1,203 65.03 565 30.54 42 2.27 40 2.16 638 34.49 1,850
Tulsa 94,981 48.94 95,396 49.15 2,194 1.13 1,524 0.79 -415 -0.21 194,095
Wagoner 17,434 64.88 8,846 32.92 317 1.18 273 1.02 8,588 31.96 26,870
Washington 11,152 65.02 5,578 32.52 217 1.27 204 1.19 5,574 32.50 17,151
Washita 2,633 73.65 841 23.52 61 1.71 40 1.12 1,792 50.13 3,575
Woods 1,816 67.21 804 29.76 45 1.67 37 1.37 1,012 37.45 2,702
Woodward 4,001 74.41 1,225 22.78 82 1.53 69 1.28 2,776 51.63 5,377
Totals 639,484 55.45 481,904 41.79 16,243 1.41 15,653 1.36 157,580 13.66 1,153,284
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Paul Tay was arrested on August 23, 2021 and charged with kidnapping, assault with a deadly weapon, and rape. [37] The charges were later dropped in early August 2022, nearly a year after his arrest. [38]
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ "A 3rd party candidate" with 9%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Stitt's campaign
  2. ^ This poll was conducted in-house by and for Bruno's campaign
  3. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Oklahoma's Children Our Future
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the American Federation for Children

References

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  2. ^ a b "2022 Statutory Election Dates and Deadlines" (PDF). oklahoma.gov. Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved October 13, 2021.
  3. ^ a b "Former state Sen. Ervin Yen officially announces campaign for Oklahoma governor". KOCO. November 8, 2020.
  4. ^ Forman, Carmen (October 19, 2021). "Second Oklahoma gubernatorial candidate changes political affiliation, abandons GOP". The Oklahoman. Retrieved October 20, 2021.
  5. ^ a b "Gov. Kevin Stitt Files Paperwork To Run For Re-Election in 2022". News 9. January 15, 2021.
  6. ^ a b c Forman, Carmen (September 9, 2021). "Broken Arrow Republican to jump into governor's race, challenge Stitt from the right". The Oklahoman. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  7. ^ a b Savage, Tres (April 7, 2022). "Joel Kintsel to challenge Kevin Stitt in GOP primary". NonDoc. Retrieved April 7, 2022.
  8. ^ Forman, Carmen (June 8, 2022). "Gov. Kevin Stitt's campaign to pull ads after Oklahoma prosecutor says he will investigate". The Oklahoman. Retrieved June 19, 2022.
  9. ^ a b DenHoed, Andrea (June 28, 2022). "Kevin Stitt, Joy Hofmeister advance in governor's race". NonDoc. Retrieved June 29, 2022.
  10. ^ a b c Prather, Megan (April 16, 2022). "Crowded fields for most statewide offices in Oklahoma". NonDoc. Retrieved April 16, 2022.
  11. ^ Krehbiel, Randy (April 14, 2021). "Candidates file for Oklahoma offices including governor, congressman, attorney general". Tulsa World. Retrieved April 16, 2022.
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  22. ^ a b "2022 OKHPR-PAC Primary Race Endorsements". OKHPR. June 4, 2022. Retrieved June 5, 2022.
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  28. ^ a b "Johnson, Hofmeister face off for Democratic nomination in governor race". June 19, 2022.
  29. ^ "Democrats welcome Hofmeister's defection | the Journal Record". October 7, 2021.
  30. ^ "Hofmeister is running as a Democrat. Would she govern like one?".
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External links

Official campaign websites