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1988 United States presidential election in California

←  1984 November 8, 1988 1992 →
Turnout72.81% (of registered voters) Decrease 2.12 pp
53.51% (of eligible voters) Decrease 5.57 pp [1]
 
Nominee George H. W. Bush Michael Dukakis
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dan Quayle Lloyd Bentsen
Electoral vote 47 0
Popular vote 5,054,917 4,702,233
Percentage 51.13% 47.56%


President before election

Ronald Reagan
Republican

Elected President

George H. W. Bush
Republican

Bush campaigning in San Francisco on September 14, 1988
Dukakis holds an election eve rally at the Pauley Pavilion

The 1988 United States presidential election in California took place on November 8, 1988, and was part of the 1988 United States presidential election. Voters chose 47 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

California voted for the Republican nominee, Vice President George H. W. Bush, over the Democratic nominee, Massachusetts governor Michael Dukakis by a margin of 3.57 percent. Bush won forty-four of the state's fifty-eight counties, but the election was kept close by Dukakis’ strong performance in the Bay Area and his victory in Los Angeles, the state's most populated county. Also, Dukakis won at least 31% of the vote in every county and at least 40 percent in forty of them. Much like Vermont in the same year, California was seen by observers as a swing state in this year's presidential election cycle due to fairly close polling.

California weighed in for this election as 4.2% more Democratic than the nation at large. As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last presidential election in which the state of California was carried by a Republican candidate. From the next election onwards, California would, like the other two states on the West Coast, transition from being swing states to voting consistently for Democratic candidates ( Oregon and Washington even voted for Dukakis in 1988), forming a " blue wall" of sorts over the next three decades. Bush is also the last Republican to carry the following counties in a presidential election: Imperial, Monterey, Napa, Sacramento, San Benito and Santa Barbara, the last Republican to win any county in the Bay Area (Napa), the last Republican to secure at least one-quarter of the vote in San Francisco, and the last Republican to secure at least 40% of the vote in Los Angeles County.

Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Sonoma County, a Republican stronghold for most of the 20th century, [2] since Benjamin Harrison in 1888, as well as the first to do so without carrying Los Angeles County, a bellwether county from 1920 to 1984, since Rutherford Hayes in 1876. Due to Bush's victory in California, this was also the most recent presidential election when the state of Texas would not be the biggest electoral vote prize won by the Republican candidate, and likewise for the Democratic nominee in regards to California, which instead was New York.

Results

1988 United States presidential election in California [3]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George Herbert Walker Bush 5,054,917 51.13% 47
Democratic Michael Stanley Dukakis 4,702,233 47.56% 0
Libertarian Ron Paul 70,105 0.71% 0
Independent Lenora Fulani 31,180 0.32% 0
American Independent James C. Griffin 27,818 0.28% 0
No party David Duke ( write-in) 483 0.00% 0
No party Eugene McCarthy (write-in) 234 0.00% 0
No party Herbert G. Lewin (write-in) 58 0.00% 0
No party Write-in 25 0.00% 0
No party Larry Holmes (write-in) 11 0.00% 0
Invalid or blank votes
Totals 9,887,064 100.00% 47
Voter turnout

By county

County George H.W. Bush
Republican
Michael Dukakis
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Alameda 162,815 33.99% 310,283 64.78% 5,899 1.23% -147,468 -30.79% 478,997
Alpine 306 55.43% 230 41.67% 16 2.90% 76 13.76% 552
Amador 6,893 55.87% 5,197 42.12% 248 2.01% 1,696 13.75% 12,338
Butte 40,143 56.04% 30,406 42.45% 1,082 1.51% 9,737 13.59% 71,631
Calaveras 7,640 56.28% 5,674 41.80% 260 1.92% 1,966 14.48% 13,574
Colusa 3,077 59.49% 2,022 39.10% 73 1.41% 1,055 20.39% 5,172
Contra Costa 158,652 47.86% 169,411 51.10% 3,448 1.04% -10,759 -3.24% 331,511
Del Norte 3,714 49.73% 3,587 48.03% 167 2.24% 127 1.70% 7,468
El Dorado 30,021 59.33% 19,801 39.13% 781 1.54% 10,220 20.20% 50,603
Fresno 94,835 49.95% 92,635 48.79% 2,400 1.26% 2,200 1.16% 189,870
Glenn 4,944 62.06% 2,894 36.33% 128 1.61% 2,050 25.73% 7,966
Humboldt 21,460 41.15% 29,781 57.11% 905 1.74% -8,321 -15.96% 52,146
Imperial 12,889 55.16% 10,243 43.84% 233 1.00% 2,646 11.32% 23,365
Inyo 5,042 64.34% 2,653 33.85% 142 1.81% 2,389 30.49% 7,837
Kern 90,550 61.48% 55,083 37.40% 1,660 1.12% 35,467 24.08% 147,293
Kings 12,118 56.41% 9,142 42.56% 222 1.03% 2,976 13.85% 21,482
Lake 9,366 48.03% 9,828 50.39% 308 1.58% -462 -2.36% 19,502
Lassen 5,157 58.59% 3,446 39.15% 199 2.26% 1,711 19.44% 8,802
Los Angeles 1,239,716 46.88% 1,372,352 51.89% 32,603 1.23% -132,636 -5.01% 2,644,671
Madera 13,255 54.59% 10,642 43.83% 384 1.58% 2,613 10.76% 24,281
Marin 46,855 39.73% 69,394 58.85% 1,671 1.42% -22,539 -19.12% 117,920
Mariposa 3,768 54.53% 2,998 43.39% 144 2.08% 770 11.14% 6,910
Mendocino 12,979 41.94% 17,152 55.42% 816 2.64% -4,173 -13.48% 30,947
Merced 21,717 51.20% 20,105 47.40% 592 1.40% 1,612 3.80% 42,414
Modoc 2,518 62.68% 1,416 35.25% 83 2.07% 1,102 27.43% 4,017
Mono 2,177 61.38% 1,284 36.20% 86 2.42% 893 25.18% 3,547
Monterey 50,022 49.83% 48,998 48.81% 1,361 1.36% 1,024 1.02% 100,381
Napa 23,235 50.19% 22,283 48.14% 772 1.67% 952 2.05% 46,290
Nevada 21,383 57.76% 14,980 40.46% 660 1.78% 6,403 17.30% 37,023
Orange 586,230 67.75% 269,013 31.09% 10,064 1.16% 317,217 36.66% 865,307
Placer 42,096 59.59% 27,516 38.95% 1,030 1.46% 14,580 20.64% 70,642
Plumas 4,603 51.06% 4,251 47.15% 161 1.79% 352 3.91% 9,015
Riverside 199,979 59.46% 133,122 39.58% 3,247 0.96% 66,857 19.88% 336,348
Sacramento 201,832 51.01% 188,557 47.65% 5,301 1.34% 13,275 3.36% 395,690
San Benito 5,578 54.11% 4,559 44.23% 171 1.66% 1,019 9.88% 10,308
San Bernardino 235,167 59.99% 151,118 38.55% 5,723 1.46% 84,049 21.44% 392,008
San Diego 523,143 60.19% 333,264 38.34% 12,788 1.47% 189,879 21.85% 869,195
San Francisco 72,503 26.14% 201,887 72.78% 3,004 1.08% -129,384 -46.64% 277,394
San Joaquin 75,309 54.39% 61,699 44.56% 1,445 1.05% 13,610 9.83% 138,453
San Luis Obispo 46,613 55.85% 35,667 42.73% 1,187 1.42% 10,946 13.12% 83,467
San Mateo 109,261 42.94% 141,859 55.74% 3,360 1.32% -32,598 -12.80% 254,480
Santa Barbara 77,524 54.24% 63,586 44.48% 1,830 1.28% 13,938 9.76% 142,940
Santa Clara 254,442 46.99% 277,810 51.30% 9,276 1.71% -23,368 -4.31% 541,528
Santa Cruz 37,728 36.77% 63,133 61.53% 1,750 1.70% -25,405 -24.76% 102,611
Shasta 32,402 59.36% 21,171 38.79% 1,012 1.85% 11,231 20.57% 54,585
Sierra 860 50.71% 791 46.64% 45 2.65% 69 4.07% 1,696
Siskiyou 9,056 50.88% 8,365 47.00% 376 2.12% 691 3.88% 17,797
Solano 50,314 47.43% 54,344 51.23% 1,430 1.34% -4,030 -3.80% 106,088
Sonoma 67,725 41.91% 91,262 56.48% 2,596 1.61% -23,537 -14.57% 161,583
Stanislaus 51,648 53.07% 44,685 45.92% 982 1.01% 6,963 7.15% 97,315
Sutter 14,100 67.47% 6,557 31.09% 241 1.14% 7,543 36.38% 20,898
Tehama 9,854 56.52% 7,213 41.37% 367 2.11% 2,641 15.15% 17,434
Trinity 3,267 54.63% 2,518 42.11% 195 3.26% 749 12.52% 5,980
Tulare 46,891 59.61% 30,711 39.04% 1,067 1.35% 16,180 20.57% 78,669
Tuolumne 10,646 54.00% 8,717 44.22% 352 1.78% 1,929 9.78% 19,715
Ventura 147,604 61.64% 89,065 37.19% 2,804 1.17% 58,539 24.45% 239,473
Yolo 22,358 41.89% 30,429 57.01% 585 1.10% -8,071 -15.12% 53,372
Yuba 8,937 61.37% 5,444 37.38% 182 1.25% 3,493 23.99% 14,563
Total 5,054,917 51.13% 4,702,233 47.56% 129,914 1.31% 352,684 3.57% 9,887,064

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Bush won 23 of the 45 congressional districts, including five held by Democrats.

District Bush Dukakis Representative
1st 43.9% 56.1% Douglas H. Bosco
2nd 59.0% 41.0% Wally Herger
3rd 50.4% 49.6% Bob Matsui
4th 51.5% 48.5% Vic Fazio
5th 28.0% 72.0% Nancy Pelosi
6th 35.2% 64.8% Barbara Boxer
7th 46.1% 53.9% George Miller
8th 29.4% 70.6% Ron Dellums
9th 42.4% 57.6% Pete Stark
10th 44.2% 55.8% Don Edwards
11th 41.3% 58.7% Tom Lantos
12th 50.1% 49.9% Tom Campbell
13th 49.8% 50.2% Norman Mineta
14th 59.8% 40.2% Norman D. Shumway
15th 52.8% 47.2% Tony Coelho
16th 45.0% 55.0% Leon Panetta
17th 59.4% 40.6% Chip Pashayan
18th 46.5% 53.5% Richard Lehman
19th 54.7% 45.3% Bob Lagomarsino
20th 65.3% 34.7% Bill Thomas
21st 65.1% 34.9% Elton Gallegly
22nd 64.7% 35.3% Carlos Moorhead
23rd 43.5% 56.5% Anthony Beilenson
24th 34.3% 65.7% Henry Waxman
25th 32.1% 67.9% Edward Roybal
26th 44.1% 55.9% Howard Berman
27th 44.8% 55.2% Mel Levine
28th 26.4% 73.6% Julian Dixon
29th 19.3% 80.7% Augustus Hawkins
30th 46.6% 53.4% Matthew Martinez
31st 34.8% 65.2% Mervyn Dymally
32nd 50.4% 49.6% Glenn Anderson
33rd 63.1% 36.9% David Dreier
34th 49.1% 50.9% Ed Torres
35th 66.2% 33.8% Jerry Lewis
36th 52.0% 48.0% George Brown
37th 61.5% 38.5% Al McCandless
38th 61.7% 38.3% Bob Dornan
39th 71.5% 28.5% William Dannemeyer
40th 68.7% 31.3% Christopher Cox
41st 59.1% 40.9% Bill Lowery
42nd 65.7% 34.3% Dana Rohrabacher
43rd 68.8% 31.2% Ron Packard
44th 47.9% 52.1% Jim Bates
45th 66.8% 33.2% Duncan Hunter

Analysis

California voted Republican in 1988 for the ninth time out of ten elections from 1952 on, confirming its status as a Republican electoral bulwark during this period. [4] However, George H. W. Bush won California by only 3.57% even as he won nationally by 7.72%; and Florida displaced it as the state providing the Republican with his biggest raw-vote margin in the nation. Signs of the phenomena that would come to make California a 'Blue Wall' state from 1992 on emerged in this election; for the first time since 1916, Los Angeles County voted for the loser of the national election. Bush was also nearly swept out of the Bay Area, losing populous former Republican strongholds such as Santa Clara, San Mateo, Sonoma, and Marin Counties (as well as Santa Cruz County, the northernmost Central Coast county).

While Bush continued to do well in San Diego, Orange, and Ventura Counties (and, to a lesser extent, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Monterey Counties, as well as in relatively thinly populated Napa County), this represented a significant erosion of the Republican Party's traditional base along the length of California's coast. [5] By 2016 and 2020, this process was complete, as every coastal county in the state save Del Norte voted Democratic two elections in a row.

On the other hand, in contrast to the 1976, 1968, 1960, and 1948 elections in California, all of which had been close (and which had been won by the Democrat in 1948), Dukakis carried little of inland California, which had traditionally been the Democratic base in the state. [5] Counties that had voted Democratic in all four of those elections, but voted Republican in 1988, included Sacramento, Fresno, Placer, Merced, Shasta, Madera, Amador, Lassen, Plumas, Trinity, and Sierra Counties. Apart from Sacramento, Fresno, and Merced Counties, these have continued to remain as Republican strongholds in the state even as overall it has become increasingly blue in the 21st century. Comparing 1988 directly with what at the time was the most recent close election in California, 1976, Dukakis carried only nine of the 27 counties Carter carried in the state. Three of these (Shasta, Plumas, and Sierra) had even voted for McGovern in the disastrous Democratic defeat of 1972.

References

  1. ^ "Historical Voter Registration and Participation in Statewide General Elections 1910-2018" (PDF). California Secretary of State. Retrieved May 5, 2022.
  2. ^ "Opinion: The GOP's Long Slide into Irrelevance in California". Times of San Diego. July 3, 2018. Retrieved May 31, 2021.
  3. ^ "1988 Presidential General Election Results - California". Dave Leip's U.S. Election Atlas. Retrieved August 25, 2008.
  4. ^ "Red States and Blue States Are a Myth". National Review. December 1, 2016. Retrieved December 31, 2020.
  5. ^ a b "The California Republican Party's long slide into irrelevance". Orange County Register. July 2, 2018. Retrieved December 31, 2020.